At present, carbon intensity in the economy has become a realistic problem faced by many countries. Decarbonization and green development have gradually become one of the main trends in the world, and major countries around the world have put forward carbon neutrality targets. Russia is one of the largest greenhouse gas emitters in the world. Therefore, under the current international situation of The Russia-Ukraine war and the exogenous impact on Russia’s economy and finance, it is of great significance to study Russia’s carbon emissions for Russia’s economic development, environmental protection and global green development. In recent years, Russia’s carbon intensity has remained high, which may be caused by several factors, such as the decline in actual investment level, single industrial structure, excessive dependence on oil and gas industry, external shocks to the Russian economy in 2014 and other macroeconomic factors. The purpose of this study is to identify trends in carbon intensity during the period of exogenous shocks to the Russian economy and financial sector from 2014 to 2018, and to explain the causes. First, the synthetic control method is used to examine the changes in Russia’s carbon intensity since 2014, and the results show that since 2014, Russia’s carbon intensity has increased significantly; Secondly, using the mediation effect analysis model to test the impact mechanism, it is found that since 2014, the Russian industrial structure has not been actively improved, but instead increased its dependence on the resource industry, thereby increasing carbon emissions. Combined with the tail effect analysis, Russia has faced significant economic pressure, and its carbon intensity is unlikely to return to the state before 2014 in the short term.