OU Dinghua, WU Nengjun, LI Yuanxi, MA Qing, ZHENG Siyuan, LI Shiqi, YU Dongrui, TANG Haolun, GAO Xuesong
Journal of Resources and Ecology.
Accepted: 2022-03-30
Delimiting ecological space scientifically and
making reasonable predictions of the spatial-temporal trend of changes in the
dominant ecosystem service functions (ESFs) are the basis of constructing an
ecological protection pattern of territorial space, which has important
theoretical significance and application value. At present, most research on
the identification, functional partitioning and pattern reconstruction of
ecological space refers to the current ESFs and their structural information,
which ignores the spatial-temporal dynamic nature of the comprehensive and
dominant ESFs, and does not seriously consider the change simulation in the
dominant ESFs of the future ecological space. This affects the rationality of
constructing an ecological space protection pattern to some extent. In this
study, we propose an ecological space delimitation method based on the dynamic
change characteristics of the ESFs, realize the identification of the
ecological space range in Qionglai city and solve the problem of ignoring the
spatial-temporal changes of ESFs in current research. On this basis, we also
apply the Markov-CA model to integrate the spatial-temporal change
characteristics of the dominant ESFs, successfully realize the simulation of
the spatial-temporal changes in the dominant ESFs in Qionglai city’s ecological
space in 2025, find a suitable method for simulating ecological
spatial-temporal changes and also provide a basis for constructing a reasonable
ecological space protection pattern. This study finds that the comprehensive
quantity of ESF and its annual rate of change in Qionglai city show obvious
dynamics, which confirms the necessity of considering the dynamic
characteristics of ESFs when identifying ecological space. The areas of
ecological space in Qionglai city represent 98307 ha by using the ecological
space identification method proposed in this study, which is consistent with
the ecological spatial distribution in the local ecological civilization
construction plan. This confirms the reliability of the ecological space
identification method based on the dynamic characteristics of the ESFs. The
results also show that the dominant ESFs in Qionglai city represented strong
non-stationary characteristics during 2003-2019, which showed that we should
fully consider the influence of the dynamics in the dominant ESFs on the future
ESF pattern during the process of constructing the ecological spatial
protection pattern. The Markov-CA model realized the simulation of spatial-temporal
changes in the dominant ESFs with a high precision Kappa coefficient of above
0.95, which illustrated the feasibility of using this model to simulate the
future dominant ESF spatial pattern. The simulation results showed that the
dominant ESFs in Qionglai will still undergo mutual conversions during
2019-2025 due to the effect of the their non-stationary nature. The ecological
space will still maintain the three dominant ESFs of primary product
production, climate regulation and hydrological regulation in 2025, but their areas
will change to 32793 ha, 52490 ha and 13024 ha, respectively. This study can
serve as a scientific reference for the delimitation of the ecological
conservation redline, ecological function regionalization and the construction
of an ecological spatial protection pattern.