Table of Content

    30 January 2020, Volume 11 Issue 1 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Progress in Research on the Influences of Climatic Changes on the Industrial Economy in China
    LIU Yuanzhe, SONG Wei, ZHAO Dongsheng, GAO Jiangbo
    2020, 11 (1):  1-12.  doi: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.01.001
    Abstract ( )   PDF (528KB) ( )   Save
    Global climate changes have led to ocean acidification, ice and snow melting, a continuous rise in temperature, and an increasing frequency of extreme weather events, with profound impacts on the social economic system. With the aggravation from climate changes, even the industrial fields with a relatively strong resistance to climatic changes have also suffered serious losses. At present, the vulnerability of the industrial field is growing, and the absolute economic losses are increasing. The quantitative evaluation of these industrial economic losses is therefore an important basis for formulating policies to tackle global climate change, and analyzing the current research progress can provide ideas and methods for the effective evaluation of the industrial economy. Therefore, in this paper, we summarized both the positive and negative effects of climate changes on the industrial fields and found that the influences of climatic changes on different industrial sectors are slightly variable. For example, while the mining industry, so far, has positively responded to the changing climate, severe weather events such as storms, drought, and rain could severely impede the normal production and business operation activities of the mining industry in the future. The manufacturing industry mostly involves indoor jobs, which are relatively resistant to extreme weather events, and some industries have complex response mechanisms. In terms of the construction industry, its losses are mainly indirect through increased electricity costs. The production and supply industries for electricity, heat, and water would suffer transmission supply losses in extreme weather events; and as the largest carbon emission industries, the costs of emission reduction would affect the economic growth of this sector in the short term. Overall, the industrial sectors pay relatively high costs for climate change mitigation and adaptation, and therefore, the quantitative evaluation of industrial economic losses through models is crucial for both the development of reasonable policies and ensuring a smooth and consistent growth of the industrial economy.
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    Evaluation of Water Yield and Soil Erosion in the Three-River-Source Region under Different Land-Climate Sce-narios
    GAO Min, XIAO Yan, HU Yunfeng
    2020, 11 (1):  13-26.  doi: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.01.002
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2546KB) ( )   Save
    Exploring the water yield and soil conservation in the Three-River-Source region is of great significance for evaluating both the ecological stability of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Yellow River basin, Yangtze River basin and Lancang River basin and the sustainable development of human society. The data sources for this study were land use/cover data from four phases (2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015), daily precipitation and temperature datasets, and the 1:1000000 Chinese soil database. These data were combined with vector data, such as data on settlements, roads, and rivers, along with population, economic raster datasets and CCSM4 common climate model prediction results. The Three-River-Source region was taken as the study area, and four land use/cover development scenarios and two climate change scenarios were designed based on the FLUS model and the downscaling correction method. The InVEST model was used to quantitatively simulate the water yield and soil erosion under different scenarios in the study area in 2030. The results showed the following: (1) Under different land use/cover development scenarios, grassland remained the dominant land use/cover type in the Three-River-Source region, and the area ratio was always greater than 67%. (2) Under the RCP4.5 climate scenario, the annual water yield and soil erosion increased by more than 7% and 3.9%, respectively. Under the RCP8.5 climate scenario, the annual water yield and soil erosion decreased by more than 3.3% and 1.3%, respectively. (3) Climate change played a leading role in the changes in water yield and soil erosion. Climate change contributed as much as 89.97%–98.00% to the change in water yield and 60.49%–95.64% to the change in the soil erosion modulus. However, the contribution of land use/cover changes to the change in regional water yield was only 2.00%–10.03%, and the contribution of the soil erosion modulus change was 4.36%–39.91%. Therefore, the land use development strategy in the Three-River-Source region should comprehensively consider issues such as regional development, the input of returning farmland to forest and grassland, and the resulting ecological benefits.
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    Response of Asiatic ibex (Capra sibirica) under Climate Change Scenarios
    Eric Ariel L. SALAS, Raul VALDEZ, Stefan MICHEL, Kenneth G. BOYKIN
    2020, 11 (1):  27-37.  doi: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.01.003
    Abstract ( )   PDF (669KB) ( )   Save
    We investigated the effects of climate change on the distribution of the Asiatic ibex (Capra sibirica) in eastern Tajikistan. No existing climate change studies have been conducted on the habitat of a wild goat species in Asia. We conducted ecological niche modelling to compare potential present and future distributions of suitable environmental conditions for ibex. Projecting to 2070, 18% (2689 km2) of the current suitable areas would be lost, mostly located in the southeastern and northwestern regions of the study area. However, new suitable habitats could expand outside the current ibex range —about 30% (4595 km2) expansion until 2070. We found that the elevation, terrain roughness, seasonal temperature, and precipitation of warmest quarter were the most important factors in the models and had strong correlations to ibex distribution. The losses in the southeastern portion overlapped most of the current locations of ibex in that region. These losses were observed in the much lower elevations of the study area (3500 m to 4000 m). When considering both loss and gain, the ibex could see a net expansion to new suitable habitats. About 30% (1379 km2) of the average habitat gains for the Asiatic ibex in 2070 showed a shift to northern lower temperature habitats. Our results are beneficial in planning for the potential effects on biodiversity conservation in the eastern mountain region of Tajikistan under climate change scenarios. Special attention should be given to the ibex populations in the southeastern region, where habitats could become unsuitable for the species as a result of the cli-mate-induced effects on the mountain ecosystem.
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    Ecological Security Assessment of the Yancheng National Nature Reserve based on GIS
    LI Haiping, GAO Ge, LI Jing
    2020, 11 (1):  38-49.  doi: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.01.004
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2839KB) ( )   Save
    This study used remote sensing and GIS to analyze the landscape pattern changes in the Yancheng Nature Reserve from 1983 to 2018, established an evaluation index system based on the regional natu-ral-socio-economic complex ecosystem security pattern, and then analyzed the spatial characteristics of eco-logical security changes and discusses reasons for these changes. The results show that the landscape pattern changed dramatically from natural landscape to a mixture of natural landscape and artificial landscape from 1983 to 2018 due to the intensification of human activities. At present, the ecological security status of the protected areas is not optimistic. From the perspective of the survival status of red-crowned cranes, the protected areas are suitable. However, due to the increase of human activities and policy adjustments, the habitat of red-crowned cranes is fragmented. The red-crowned crane currently gathers in localized areas such as the core area and the buffer zone. We should pay more attention to management, policy development and the environmental awareness of local residents. At the same time, it is necessary to reduce the intensity of human activities within the reserve.
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    Analysis of Obstacles to Sustainable Development of Ecotourism in Nature Reserves: A Field Investigation of Three National Na-ture Reserves in Liaoning Province
    LU Xiaobo, CHEN Xiaoying
    2020, 11 (1):  50-58.  doi: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.01.005
    Abstract ( )   PDF (373KB) ( )   Save
    Nature reserves are key sites for ecotourism. In the context of sustainable development, a great number of ecotourism practices have been carried out in nature reserves around the world. Important ecotourism practices in nature reserves include the establishment of ecotourism certification systems, the development of management mechanisms promoting effective community participation and the development of standards for ecotourism practices. This paper uses questionnaires, a field investigation and interviews to examine the obstacles influencing the sustainable development of ecotourism in nature reserves, taking three nature reserves in Liaoning Province to serve as examples. The study found that there are two kinds of obstacles to the sustainable development of ecotourism in nature reserves. The first group of obstacles all represent common problems in China including: (1) environmental education is ignored; (2) community participation occurs on an ad hoc basis; (3) tourism management is not rigorous; (4) nature reserve administration is in a state of confrontation with local governments and residents. The second group of obstacles consists of specific problems faced by ecotourism in the three nature reserve, each of which has its own natural, social, cultural and economic environment that generate unique difficulties for ecotourism. In order to promote the healthy improvement of nature reserve ecotourism and achieve the goal of sustainable development, the research team puts forward five suggestions, developing correct understanding, striving to meet the reasonable demands of stakeholders, establishing scientific mechanisms, increasing the social responsibility of management departments of nature reserve ecotourism, and providing separate supervision and management.
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    Forest Transition and Its Driving Forces in the Qian-Gui Karst Mountainous Areas
    ZHAO Yuluan, REN Hongyu, LI Xiubin
    2020, 11 (1):  59-68.  doi: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.01.006
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2938KB) ( )   Save
    This study investigates the spatial differences and the factors influencing those differences as they affect forest transitions in the Qian-Gui Karst Mountain areas to provide references for policy makers, and ideas for eco-logical environmental protection strategies and adaptive management strategies for forest restoration projects in mountain areas. Forest transition characteristics are determined in relationship to spatial and functional transitions. SPSS and a geographical detector are used to analyze the forces driving forest transitions in terms of natural environmental and socio-economic factors. The results were as follows: (1) The area of forestland in the Qian-Gui Karst Mountain areas increased by 673.5 km2 during 1990-2015, and a U-shaped curve generally describes the tendency of this change. More precisely, forest land area decreased initially and increased later, with the turning point occurring in the year 2000. This suggests that the Qian-Gui Karst Mountain areas are being maintained at a later stage of forest transition, and this means they are experiencing a net increase in forest land area. The average annual rainfall and temperature, distance to the nearest river and nearest rural residential area, amplitude of topographical relief, and slope contributed the most to forest spatial transitions. (2) During the study period, the tendency for forest coverage to change varied considerably in different parts of the study area, and the greatest increase occurred in the area of very high forest coverage, an area of 154173.71 km2. The ranking of other forest coverages tended to decrease during the past 25 years. The vegetation ecosystem, in general, is being maintained in the process of restoration, and changes in the ranking of forest coverage were high in the northern part of the study area and low in the southern part. Forest spatial transitions were affected by the interaction between natural environmental and socio-economic factors, and the average annual temperature and rainfall, elevation, and lighting intensity at night were the most important factors that governed forest functional transitions. An examination of the direction in which spatial and functional transitions are moving in the forest area indicates that ecological construction, rather than spatial expansion of the forest area, should be used in the future to improve forest quality.
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    Analysis of the Potential for Crop-livestock Integration in Bu-rang County, China
    DUAN Cheng, SHI Peili, ZONG Ning, ZHANG Xianzhou
    2020, 11 (1):  69-76.  doi: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.01.007
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2154KB) ( )   Save
    Crop-livestock integration (CLI) is a significant practice for livestock grazing systems in alpine rangelands. It offers the potential to achieve sustainable crop and livestock production. However, the separate crop and livestock systems that exist today have led to issues of intensive agriculture, rangeland degradation and forage shortage in the Tibetan Plateau. Developing crop-livestock integration through sown pastures can be an effective way to lift pasture productivity and improve livestock production. Thus, to explore the potential for integrating crop and livestock production in alpine grazing systems, an assessment of potential forage and livestock production using multiple datasets was carried out in Burang County, China. Results showed the marginal land potentially available for sown pastures was about 560 ha, located mostly in the Burang township of the Karnali basin. Accumulated temperature was the dominant limiting factor for establishing sown pastures, therefore cold tolerance of forage species and growth period should be taken into consideration. Furthermore, the number of livestock decreased during the period 2012–2016; yet often, the number of livestock in rangeland landscape was greater than that in agro-pastoral landscape. The average number of livestock was about 110000 standard sheep units (SU) in the study area, but forage from sown pastures and crop residues could potentially feed about 11000 SU, accounting for 50% of the livestock population in the Karnali basin. We found that integrating crop and forage production could fill feed gaps for grazing systems, particularly in the agro-pastoral landscape of the Karnali basin. The results of this study provide scientific support to guide future forage production and to promote further crop and livestock integration in Burang County.
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    Is GIAHS an Effective Instrument to Promote Agrosystem Con-servation? A Rural Community’s Perceptions
    HE Siyuan, LI Heyao, MIN Qingwen
    2020, 11 (1):  77-86.  doi: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.01.008
    Abstract ( )   PDF (960KB) ( )   Save
    The Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System (GIAHS) has been established by FAO to protect valuable agricultural systems that are rich in biodiversity and home to indigenous knowledge, technology and cultural values. GIAHS has been accepted by many countries as a tool to maintain traditional agrosystems as “living heritage”. This paper examined the Xinghua Duotian agrosystem in eastern China to explore whether the GIAHS programme is an effective instrument for top-down implementation of conservation policies initiated by the government. An intensive social survey using a questionnaire was conducted in the core conservation area to examine farmers’ understanding of the agrosystem and their willingness to conserve it. Statistical analyses including factor analysis, a linear model, a logit model and an optimal scale model were used to reveal farmers’ perception of GIAHS and the factors that impact their willingness to conserve. Results show that the agrosystem faces challenges of aging and population loss. Farmers were not very familiar with GIAHS. They did not link GIAHS to the agrosystem because they generally understood GIAHS as a title meant to bring economic benefits, although they also thought the agrosystem had non-economic values worth conserving. Because farmers were not sure about the economic outcomes of the GIAHS programme, they thought the government, not them, should take the main role in conservation. Therefore, GIAHS as a tool to encourage farmers to become active in conservation does not seem very effective. It will not become so until it truly facilitates the transformation of non-economic values to economic values in the agrosystem. We suggested that the concepts of GIAHS should be matched to farmers’ perceptions to provide farmers with conservation incentives.
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    Satellite Image-based Monitoring of Urban Land Use Change and Assessing the Driving Factors in Pokhara and Bharatpur Metropolitan Cities, Gandaki Basin, Nepal
    Raju RAI, ZHANG Yili, Basanta PAUDEL, Narendra Raj KHANAL, Bipin Kumar ACHARYA
    2020, 11 (1):  87-99.  doi: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.01.009
    Abstract ( )   PDF (910KB) ( )   Save
    Urban growth is a key indicator of economic development. At the same time, haphazard urban growth creates serious socioeconomic, environmental and urban land management problems. In this context, understanding the process of urban landscape change is important for guiding the sustainable growth of urban areas. This study analyzes the urban land changes during 1990–2018 in two metropolitan cities of Gandaki basin: Pokhara and Bharatpur. Landsat satellite images were analyzed using supervised classification methods. The results re-vealed that the built-up area has increased significantly by 300% in Pokhara and by nearly 500% in the Bharatpur during the past 28 years. Population growth, migration from surrounding areas due to urban facilities and the easy lifestyle in cities were found to be major determinants of urban growth within the study area. In addition, the changing urban definition and expansion of municipal boundaries are key factors for rapid urban growth. Both cities are likely to grow in the future as they are both located in areas that encompass the high levels of commercial activity and modern service facilities. The haphazard urban growth should be minimized through planning and policies for sustainable urban development.
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    Development of Optimal City Size Theory: A Critical View
    ZHANG Yang
    2020, 11 (1):  100-110.  doi: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.01.010
    Abstract ( )   PDF (488KB) ( )   Save
    Nowadays more and more people reside in metropolitan areas, and the impact of this phenomenon is clearly creating challenges for the environment, the economy and the society at large. It is therefore useful and in-structive to consider the issue of optimal city size and review the literature over the past decades on optimal city size theory. Based on the progress in recent years of comparative analysis and inductive research, from both theoretical and empirical perspectives, this paper outlines the original definitions proposed for optimal city size and discusses some of the advantages and disadvantages of the various theories. The two prevailing models in the classical analysis of optimal city size, the Henry George Theorem (HGT) and the neoclassical approach, are examined later. This paper then introduces the supply oriented dynamic model (SOUDY model) and offers a plausible model for optimal city size based on the general equilibrium analysis, which is related to sustainable development. The results show that: (1) Simple optimal city size theories come from the cost-benefit analysis developed by main stream economics, and therefore cannot overcome the defect that the optimal size of cities is the same since the same production function; (2)The Henry George Theorem, which is one of the classical analysis paradigms of optimal city size, has been used more frequently in recent years to research the issues of optimal tax and public goods and has gradually lost its connection to the topic of optimal city size; (3) The neoclassical approach to optimal city size consists of externalities influencing optimal city size, the equilibrium and optimal models for city size, the optimal town, product variety and city size distribution. This kind of research is still in the mainstream of the study of optimal city size. Compared to single optimal city size, more attention is paid to the optimal distribution of city size; and (4) The supply-oriented dynamic model allows for the integration of a spatial dimension into the economic research of optimal city size, and the constraint between city level and city size is relaxed and this has more power to explain real-world problems. At the same time, the general equilibrium analysis, as a significant economic research method, provides a new perspective for the study of optimal city size. The supply-oriented dynamic model and general equilibrium analysis are two new research paradigms that deserve more attention in the analysis of optimal city size.
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    Option Pricing for Coffee Price Using Jump Diffusion Models
    Tesfahun BERHANE, Molalign ADAM, Guriju AWGICHEW, Eshetu HAILE
    2020, 11 (1):  111-120.  doi: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.01.011
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1084KB) ( )   Save
    In this study, we aim at developing a model for option pricing to reduce the risks associated with Ethiopian coffee price fluctuations. We used daily closed Washed Sidama class A Grade3 (WSDA3) coffee price recorded in the period 31 May 2011 to 30 March 2018 obtained from Ethiopia commodity exchange (ECX) market to analyse the price fluctuation. The nature of log-returns of the price is asymmetric (negatively skewed) and exhibits high kurtosis. We used jump diffusion models for modeling and option pricing the coffee price. The method of maximum likelihood is applied to estimate the parameters of the models. We used the root mean square error (RMSE) to test the validation of the models. The values of RMSE for Merton’s and double exponential jump diffusion models are 0.1093 and 0.0783, respectively. These results indicate that the models fit the data very well. We used analytical and Monte Carlo technique to find the call option pricing of WSDA3 price. Based on the empirical results, we concluded that double exponential jump diffusion model is more efficient than Merton’s model for modeling and option pricing of this coffee price.
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    Analysis of the Food Consumption Mode and Its Influencing Factors in Kazakhstan
    LIANG Yihang, ZHEN Lin, HU Yunfeng, YAN Huimin, ZHANG Changshun
    2020, 11 (1):  121-127.  doi: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.01.012
    Abstract ( )   PDF (610KB) ( )   Save
    The excessive influence of human activity has highlighted the dilemma between maintaining a stable ecosystem while satisfying consumer demands for food. Kazakhstan has ecological problems caused by the conflict between humans and the land, grasslands and raising livestock. Therefore, this study of the food consumption modes in Kazakhstan aims to improve the sustainability of food consumption while maintaining the integrity of the ecosystem. Based on the data of food consumption in Kazakhstan in 2012 and 2016, and through the delineation of consumption modes and the analysis of their changes, this study found three very different food consumption modes in Kazakhstan - one dominated by milk and cereals; one by milk, cereals and meat; and one by milk, cereals, meat, vegetables and fruit. These three modes were distributed separately in the northern, central and southern regions of Kazakhstan, respectively. It is worth noting that food consumption in Kazakhstan is developing into a pattern of milk, cereals and meat. Confronted with the different food consumption modes and their tendencies toward variations, the basic theories of food production need to be revised, and the exchange of information and cooperation between the different regions of Kazakhstan and relevant interests abroad should be encouraged in order to increase the well-being of local consumers.
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