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    Changes in China’s Grain Production Pattern and the Effects of Urbanization and Dietary Structure
    LU Chunxia, LIU Aimin, XIAO Yu, LIU Xiaojie, XIE Gaodi, CHENG Shengkui
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2020, 11 (4): 358-365.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.04.004
    Abstract651)   HTML13)    PDF (533KB)(131)      

    Grain production patterns are the basis of a nation’s food security. Since China’s reform and opening-up began in 1978, China’s urbanization process, driven by rapid social and economic development, has accelerated steadily. During this time, the dietary structure of urban and rural Chinese has also changed significantly. Accordingly, grain production patterns have undergone major changes. First, traditional grain production patterns in the north and the south have changed, and the food production center has shifted toward the north. In 1980, the grain yield of southern provinces accounted for 60% of China’s total, while that of northern provinces accounted for 40%. In 2015, the grain yield of southern provinces accounted for 56% of the total, while that of northern provinces accounted for 44%. Second, grain production by regions of the country is “shrinking in the east but expanding in the central regions,” meaning that grain production in eastern coastal provinces has decreased significantly, while that in the central region has expanded. The proportions of the nation’s total grain production from the eastern, central and western regions were 38%, 36% and 26%, respectively, in 1980. These had changed to 27%, 46%, and 27%, respectively, in 2015. Third, the spatial centralization of grain production has increased. The total grain yield of 13 major grain-producing provinces and regions in the country accounted for 69.27% of nation’s total in 1980, and it had reached 76.18% in 2015, showing that the impact of major grain-producing areas on national food security has increased. The influence of rapid urbanization on grain production areas shows remarkable regional differences. As the level of urbanization has increased, build-up land occupies a large number of high-quality farmland, especially in east coastal provinces and thus the grain planting area decreased obviously. The effect of dietary structure changes on grain production patterns was evident in two ways. On the one hand, as dietary diversity has increased, total grain consumption has decreased. The reduction in the proportion of planting area for grain crops to total crop planting area dropped from 82% in 1980 to 68% in 2015, making this change in total grain consumption evident. On the other hand, the ratio of grain for human consumption declined as the ratio of grain consumed by animals increased. The reduction in the proportion of rice and wheat grown and an increase in the proportion of feed grain production (mostly maize) from 20% in the 1980s to 36% in 2015 makes this change in grain production and consumption evident. In the future, with the establishment of national functional areas for grain production, the spatial pattern of grain production will return, while the demand for feed grains will continue to increase but with the space for expansion limited.

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    The Distribution Patterns of Timberline and Its Response to Climate Change in the Himalayas
    SHI Peili, WU Ning, Gopal S. RAWAT
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2020, 11 (4): 342-348.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.04.002
    Abstract595)   HTML10)    PDF (516KB)(33)      

    Himalayan region represents the highest and most diverse treeline over the world. As one of the most conspicuous boundaries between montane forests and alpine vegetation, the alpine timberline attracted the interest of researchers for many decades. However, timberline in the Himalayas is understudied compared with European counterparts due to remoteness. Here we review the distribution pattern of timberline and its climatic condition, the carbon and nutrient supply mechanism for treeline formation, and treeline shift and treeline tree recruitment under climate change scenarios. Growth limitation, rather than carbon source limitation is the physiological cause of timberline under the low temperature condition. Nutrient limitation and water stress are not the direct cause of timberline formation. However, more clear local limitation factors are need to integrate in order to enable us to predict the potential impacts and changes caused by human activity and related global change in this sensitive region.

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    Measurement and Comparison of Urban Haze Governance Level and Efficiency based on the DPSIR Model: A Case Study of 31 Cities in North China
    XIAO Qinlin, TIAN Chao, WANG Yanjun, LI Xiuqing, XIAO Liming
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2020, 11 (6): 549-561.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.06.002
    Abstract531)   HTML40)    PDF (650KB)(184)      

    In the decisive stage of developing of a moderately prosperous society in all aspects, hazy weather has become a major obstacle to the further advancement of China. Therefore, improving the level and efficiency of haze governance has become essential. Based on the DPSIR model, this paper builds a haze governance level and efficiency index system using the entropy method and the super-efficiency data envelope-analysis (DEA) model to analyze the data for 31 cities in North China from 2007 to 2016. From the aspects of spatial differences and influence factors influencing the comparative analysis, the results are as follows. (1) During the investigation period, the level and efficiency of city haze governance in North China showed a trend of fluctuation and decline, with obvious stages in their characteristics. Haze governance efficiency is much higher than its level, and its mean value reaches the DEA level which indicates that it is effective. (2) A significant regional gradient difference occurs between these two aspects. The haze governance level presents a convex distribution pattern of “east low-middle high-west low”, while the haze governance efficiency presents a concave distribution pattern of “east high-middle low-west high”. (3) The regression results show that economic growth has a negative effect on both haze governance level and efficiency. By contrast, the industrial structure has a positive effect on haze governance level and efficiency, but the significance of its effect on these two is different. On this basis, policy suggestions are proposed for improving the level and efficiency of haze governance in various cities in North China.

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    System Analysis of the Historical Change of the River Leader System: Based on the Perspective of Historical Institutionalism
    ZHENG Shihao, QIN Haibo, LI Yingming, HAO Liang, GUO Fengyuan, ZHANG Conglin
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2020, 11 (4): 414-424.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.04.010
    Abstract518)   HTML8)    PDF (481KB)(38)      

    In the process of implementing the River Leader System, some problems have emerged regarding its progress and effects. From the perspective of historical institutionalism, the historical change process of the River Leader System was revealed in this paper. There were two key nodes in the historical change progress of the River Leader System. In 2014, the river leader system promotion was transferred from the local government to the Ministry of Water Resources. In 2016, the River Leader System was recognized by the central government and implemented nationwide. The historical change process of the River Leader System can be divided into three periods: the creation and formation period, the pilot and diffusion period, and the promotion and strengthening period. The change in the river and lake problems was an important driving force for the historical change of the River Leader System. A path dependent phenomenon was mainly reflected in the policy diffusion scope, problem orientation, main tasks and management methods. At present, there are some shortcomings in the River Leader System, such as a lack of inter-provincial coordination, imperfect evaluation mechanism, poorly coordinated management tasks, and insufficient public participation. To solve these problems, some policy recommendations are put forward. In the short term, the River Leader System will be continuously improved and strengthened. In the long term, it will be transformed into the integrated watershed management system.

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    Economic Development Status of the Countries along the Belt and Road and Their Correlations with Population and Carbon Emissions
    ZHONG Yang, LIN Aiwen, ZHOU Zhigao, HE Lijie, YUAN Moxi
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2020, 11 (6): 539-548.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.06.001
    Abstract513)   HTML35)    PDF (452KB)(160)      

    The construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road are important measures for allowing China to expand its opening up to the outside world under the background of economic globalization. Based on this consideration, and from the perspective of geo-economics, this study uses a variety of mathematical statistical methods to analyze the economic development status and differences among the 30 countries along the Belt and Road. In addition, the correlations between GDP, population and carbon emissions in these countries are also analyzed. The results show that the current economic development levels of the countries along the Belt and Road are quite variable; the gaps between the indicators of the economic development of the countries along the Belt and Road are convergent; the GDP, population, and carbon emissions of the countries along the Belt and Road each showed an overall upward trend during the study period, and the changes in these three values showed significant correlations. Across all countries, the correlation coefficients between GDP and population (0.989), between GDP and carbon emissions (0.995), and between population and carbon emissions (0.993), all indicate that the correlations between GDP, population and carbon emissions are very high. Among them, GDP has the highest correlation with carbon emissions, reaching 0.995. Regression analysis shows that the value of R2 reached 0.995, indicating that the regression fitting effect is very good and the calculation result is highly reliable. Based on these results, this paper proposes the following two suggestions: (1) Promoting the Belt and Road initiative should handle the relationship between developing and developed countries; and (2) Promoting the Belt and Road initiative should also be linked to China's domestic regional development strategy.

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    Analysis of the Causes of Cyanobacteria Bloom: A Review
    ZHOU Bing, CAI Xiaoli, WANG Sen, YANG Xinxin
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2020, 11 (4): 405-413.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.04.009
    Abstract506)   HTML4)    PDF (680KB)(48)      

    Among water blooms, cyanobacteria bloom occurs over the widest range and is much more harmful than other blooms. Its occurrence in inland water bodies is affected by many factors, such as meteorology, hydrology, and human activities. Therefore, the study of the causes of cyanobacterial bloom has become a major focus of scholars. The China Knowledge Network Journal Database contains 143 papers from China and abroad from the years 2004 to 2019 that are relevant to the study of cyanobacteria bloom. We begin by analyzing keywords in these studies and creating a keyword distribution map which indicates the factors related to the blooms. Based on parameters such as the frequency of words appearing in the text, the full text of each of the 143 papers is analyzed to form a word cloud created by a program written in Python language. After irrelevant terms are eliminated, the word cloud map can reveal potential factors that were not identified by keywords alone. After completing this macro analysis, we examined approximately 100 related papers from the China Knowledge Network Journal Database and Web of Science Database published from 2014 to 2019. Finally, we summarize the main reasons for the outbreak of water blooms. The factors causing blooms can be divided into natural factors and human factors. Among the natural factors are illumination, water temperature and nutrient salt conditions. The human factors are generally related to large-scale water conservancy projects. This paper analyzes and summarizes these factors, and provides a reference to aid in the prevention and treatment of algal blooms. The information in the paper has a certain practical significance for the protection of water environments.

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    Are There Differences in the Response of Natural Stand and Plantation Biomass to Changes in Temperature and Precipitation? A Case for Two-needled Pines in Eurasia
    USOLTSEV Vladimir Andreevich, SHOBAIRI Seyed Omid Reza, TSEPORDEY Ivan Stepanovich, AHRARI Amirhossein, ZHANG Meng, SHOAIB Ahmad Anees, CHASOVSKIKH Viktor Petrovich
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2020, 11 (4): 331-341.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.04.001
    Abstract446)   HTML58)    PDF (1562KB)(107)      

    A comparative discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of natural stands and plantations, including in terms of their productivity and stability, began from the moment of the first forest plantings and continues to this day. In the context of the progressive replacement of natural forests by plantations due to deforestation, the question of how will change the carbon storage capacity of forest cover when replacing natural forests with artificial ones in a changing climate becomes extremely relevant. This article presents the first attempt to answer this question at the transcontinental level on a special case for two-needled pine trees (subgenus Pinus L.). The research was carried out using the database compiled by the authors on the single-tree biomass structure of forest-forming species of Eurasia, in particular, data of 1880 and 1967 of natural and plantation trees, respectively. Multi-factor regression models are calculated after combining the matrix of initial data on the structure of tree biomass with the mean January temperature and mean annual precipitation, and their adequacy indices allow us to consider them reproducible. It is found that the aboveground and stem biomass of equal-sized and equal-aged natural and plantation trees increases as the January temperature and precipitation rise. This pattern is only partially valid for the branches biomass, and it has a specific character for the foliage one. The biomass of all components of plantation trees is higher than that of natural trees, but the percent of this excess varies among different components and depends on the level of January temperatures, but does not depend at all on the level of annual precipitation. A number of uncertainties that arose during the modeling process, as well as the preliminary nature of the obtained regularities, are noted.

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    A Study of Food Waste in the Catering Industry in Beijing
    CAO Xiaochang, LIU Xiaojie, CHENG Shengkui, LIU Yao, ZHANG Panpan
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2020, 11 (6): 562-569.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.06.003
    Abstract398)   HTML155)    PDF (710KB)(75)      

    Currently, the topic of food waste and its environmental impacts is attracting increasing attention among academic researchers. Based on an investigation of restaurants in Beijing, this study analyzes the quantities, structures, characteristics and costs of the agricultural resources related to food waste in the catering industry in Beijing. The results show that: (1) The average food waste per capita per meal is about 75.02 g (raw) for food away from home among Beijing urban residents, which means that about 10.52% of the food is wasted. (2) According to the quantitative ranking of different categories of food waste, vegetable is the most wasted, followed by meat, aquatic products, and grains. The foods in the other categories are wasted much less. (3) Food waste is affected by the restaurant type, as well as the number, gender, age, education level, and consumption motivation of the consumers. (4) Based on the estimated food waste per capita, about 417.92 thousand tons of food is wasted annually at the consumption stage in the catering industry in Beijing. This food waste amount is equivalent to approximately 765.53 tons of cereals which are wasted, and this represents 79.66% of cereals production and 13.15% of cereals consumption in Beijing. Estimated by the required land use, this amount of food waste means that the total production of approximately 166.12 thousand ha of arable land is being wasted in Beijing.

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    Nest-site Choice and Breeding Success among Four Sympatric Species of Passerine Birds in a Reedbed-dominated Wetland
    MA Laikun, YANG Canchao, LIANG Wei
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2021, 12 (1): 22-29.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2021.01.003
    Abstract371)   HTML21)    PDF (4798KB)(67)      

    The efficacy of nest-site choice ultimately determines the breeding success of birds. Comparisons of the reproductive strategies of various bird species which inhabit the same habitat may provide insights on the evolution of the diverse life-history strategies in birds. In this study, nest-site choice and breeding success of four species of passerine birds that rely on reeds for reproduction were investigated in a wetland in Hebei, China. The four species were the Oriental reed warbler (Acrocephalus orientalis) (ORW), the blunt-winged warbler (Acrocephalus concinens) (BW), the reed parrotbill (Paradoxornis heudei) (RP), and the vinous-throated parrotbill (Sinosuthora webbiana) (VP). Our results showed that breeding nests of the four species were distributed in a mosaic pattern within the same habitat, with similar nest shapes/structures and nest-sites in the reeds. The only characteristics which differed significantly among the species were nest height above the water surface, height of reeds where nests were placed, and density of reeds around the nest site. In addition, the starting time of reproduction clearly differed for the four species. The breeding success rates of the four species were 34.5% (86/249) for ORW, 35.3% (6/17) for BW, 38.5% (15/39) for RP, and 40.9% (9/22) for VP in the two study years. The main factors affecting the breeding success were nest predation and poor weather conditions, like heavy rainstorms and wind, while nest parasitism by the common cuckoo (Cuculus canorus) represented an important factor for breeding failure only in the Oriental reed warbler. Our study demonstrated that these four sympatric species of passerine birds inhabiting the same wetland exhibit differences in terms of nest-site choice and breeding phenology.

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    The Study on Cost of Application of International Emission Control Areas for China
    TIAN Yujun, WANG Hongyan, LI Tao, PENG Chuansheng
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2020, 11 (4): 388-393.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.04.007
    Abstract366)   HTML1)    PDF (400KB)(24)      

    In order to control the air pollution caused by ships and improve ambient air quality, China set up three domestic emission control areas (DECAs) in 2015 in the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta and Bohai Rim (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei) waters. In order to meet the emission requirements established at the 70th meeting of the Marine Environmental Protection Committee (MEPC), China intends to apply for the establishment of three international Emission Control Area (ECA) in 2030 for these DECAs. This paper discusses existing technologies to reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and sulphur oxides (SOx), and examines the abatement costs for the shipping industry in the year 2030 to comply with this action. Based on an examination of the literature and data collected for this study, four traditional alternatives, low-sulphur fuel, sulphur scrubbers/exhaust gas cleaning systems (EGCS), selective catalytic reduction (SCR), and exhaust gas recirculation, are analyzed. The analysis finds that switching to low-sulphur fuel is the best technical solution for SOx emission reduction, and the installation of SCR is the best technology for reducing nitrogen. In addition to traditional emission reduction technologies, the use of shore power facilities and liquefied natural gas (LNG), two alternatives welcomed by China’s green shipping industry, are also considered in this paper. The expected average abatement cost of these alternatives in the year 2030 are USD 2.866 billion, 0.324 billion, 1.071 billion, 0.402 billion, 0.232 billion and 0.34 billion, respectively.

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    Safety Evaluation of Sustainable Uranium Development in China Combined with an Analytical GAN Framework
    LIU Liangyan, CHENG Ming
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2020, 11 (4): 394-404.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.04.008
    Abstract352)   HTML1)    PDF (622KB)(15)      

    Uranium is the basic raw material for nuclear energy and is quite highly regarded. Developing a safe supply of uranium is important for safeguarding sustainable nuclear development. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the sustainability of uranium development in China based on dynamic system modeling combined with GAN (Generative Adversarial Network) analysis. We considered eight essential indicators and 42 sub-indicators as part of a detailed quantitative description, and then developed a framework to evaluate and rank China-specific sustainability in light of the quantitative performance of five options for fuel cycle transition scenarios. We began by using KMO sample measurements and the Bartlett Test of Sphericity to determine the suitability of factor analysis and the fitness of the corrected model map and observation data. We then analyzed the roles of different representatives of the decision makers and their impacts on the overall ranking by applying GAN methods from a weighted perspective. Five transition scenarios identified are 1) Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors, 2) Mixed Light Water Reactor + Fast Reactor, 3) Mixed LWR+FR fuel cycle scheme with heterogeneous irradiation, 4) Mixed Pressurized Water Reactor + FR fuel cycle scheme with plutonium recycled directly and repeatedly, and 5) Sodium-cooled fast breeder reactor power plant. The results showed that scenario 1 is the most unsustainable and highly confrontational scenario with a high demand for uranium resources, the lowest sustainability and a high level of antagonism among departments. On the other hand, Scenario 5 requires more advanced technology but exhibits less antagonism among the departments, and thus it largely satisfies the basic requirements for uranium sustainability and low levels of antagonism. In this paper, a safety assessment index system for the uranium supply is computed using a GAN framework. This system plays a crucial role in the sustainable supply and development of uranium, and provides flexibility for coping with the evolution and inherent uncertainties of the necessary technological developments.

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    Research Progress and Discoveries Related to Cultivated Land Abandonment
    CHEN Qianru, XIE Hualin
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2021, 12 (2): 165-174.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2021.02.004
    Abstract344)   HTML4)    PDF (1538KB)(12)      

    Using bibliometric methods, this paper analyzes the total amount and keyword composition among 910 studies in the field of farmland abandonment published in the Web of Science database from 1992 to 2019. According to the usage of keywords, existing studies are reviewed from the three aspects of monitoring and mapping, driving forces and influencing factors, and effects assessment and trade-off. The results show that: (1) At present, the extraction and mapping of abandoned farmland data mainly rely on household surveys and remote sensing technology, and combing NDVI time series with spatial information can provide abandoned farmland data with high precision. (2) The driving forces and influencing factors of cultivated land abandonment have been summarized in terms of extent, sources and attributes, respectively. Cultivated land marginalization is the fundamental driving force of cultivated land abandonment, labor migration is the direct driving force, and changes in socio-economic factors are the main driving forces. (3) The environmental effects of cultivated land abandonment are spatially heterogeneous, and temporal-spatial differences, the landscape environment, climate, cultivation and topographic features will all play decisive roles in shaping the ultimate environmental effects. Studies of trade-offs between the impacts of cultivated land abandonment mainly focus on ecosystem service function and value, while the role of spatial background is often ignored. Based on a systematic review of existing literature, this paper suggests that future efforts should carry out large-scale investigations on abandoned cultivated land at the national level, conduct multi-scale research on the driving forces of land abandonment, and conduct trade-off research on the effects of land abandonment based on national conditions.

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    Rural Poverty Patterns and Influencing Factors in Yunnan Province, China: Based on County Level Dataset
    SHANG Xiaowen, CHEN Yufu
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2020, 11 (4): 366-377.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.04.005
    Abstract341)   HTML3)    PDF (2674KB)(28)      

    The identification of poverty at the county level is the precondition for poverty alleviation by formulating accurate strategies that are targeted for a certain area. Yunnan Province has the largest number of poverty counties in China. The vast number of people living under the poverty-line, and the deep degree of poverty across a wide distribution range, pose major challenges. Based on the rural poverty incidence data, this paper describes the rural poverty patterns in Yunnan Province in 2010 and 2015, and then it explores the main factors which influence the incidence and changes in rural poverty at the county level in Yunnan Province using a stepwise regression analysis method. This study found that the rural poverty in counties of Yunnan Province was deeply affected by natural conditions and the geographical environment. In 2010 and 2015, the rural poverty situation in the middle region of Yunnan Province was relatively light, while it was more serious in the northwest, northeast and south regions. The pattern of county poverty is in good agreement with the topography and landforms of Yunnan Province and the poverty-stricken areas. There are strong correlations between the incidence of rural poverty in Yunnan Province with both the annual per capita net income of rural residents and the degree of agricultural mechanization. These factors are related to the living standards and agricultural production necessary for the peasantry to sustain their livelihood. The change in the incidence of rural poverty at the county level in Yunnan Province from 2010 to 2015 is significantly correlated with changes in the value-added of the primary industries and the degree of agricultural mechanization. These correlations indicate that the development of primary industry plays a key role in the process of lifting rural residents in Yunnan Province out of poverty so they can achieve prosperity. Therefore, improving the annual per capita net income of rural residents and the degree of agricultural mechanization for rural areas in Yunnan Province are still the main points for focused efforts. In the current phase of poverty alleviation, Yunnan Province should emphasize increasing rural residents' income and agricultural production and management in order to formulate effective policies and measures for poverty alleviation.

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    Functional Transformation of Rural Homesteads: A Field Survey of Poyang County, Jiangxi Province, China
    TU Xiaosong, SUN Qiurong, XU Guoliang, WU Xiaofang
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2021, 12 (2): 214-224.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2021.02.008
    Abstract313)   HTML10)    PDF (4668KB)(8)      

    The rural homestead is a major part of the rural land system, which is an important carrier of various rural issues such as rural decline, rural hollowing and others. Great changes have occurred in China's rural areas, while the rural homestead has also undergone transformation. Based on summarizing the multi-functional classification of homesteads from previous research, this study divided and defined the population bearing function, assets, and residential function of homesteads from the perspective of functional improvement according to the results of a survey questionnaire. Using Poyang County as the case study, this paper analyzed the functional transformation of rural homesteads through the model of coordinated transformation degree. The results demonstrated the following trends. (1) From 2000 to 2017, the transformation degrees of rural homestead functions in Poyang County have obviously improved overall. (2) The high value areas of the transformation degrees were mainly distributed in the northern hilly region and around Poyang Lake, while most of the low value areas were distributed in the plain areas near the county town. (3) In the regions with better location conditions and resource endowments, the basic conditions and trend of non-agriculturalization of the population, capital and other factors are more significant. According to the differentiation of rural homestead transformations which occurred in different regions, the government could put forward targeted development suggestions for the future.

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    Implications of Anthropogenic Disturbances for Species Diversity, Recruitment and Carbon Density in the Mid-hills Forests of Nepal
    Hari Prasad PANDEY
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2021, 12 (1): 1-10.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2021.01.001
    Abstract281)   HTML54)    PDF (878KB)(364)      

    Almost three-fourths of forests are experiencing anthropogenic disturbances globally, and more than two-thirds of the forests in Nepal receive different types of disturbances. In community forests (CFs), local communities are dependent on the ecosystem services provided by the forests for various aspects of their livelihoods, which disturb the forests’ natural conditions and ecosystem functioning in a variety of ways. This study tested the major disturbance factors that had influential roles on plant species diversity, recruitment (seedlings and saplings), biomass, soil organic carbon (SOC) and total carbon density in two community-managed forests in the Mid-hills of Nepal. The stump number, cut-off seedlings and saplings, lopping, dropping, and grazing/trampling were used as measures of the major anthropogenic disturbances. The necessary data were collected from 89 randomly selected sample plots, each with an area of 250 m2. The responses to anthropogenic disturbances were analyzed using Generalized Linear Models (GLM). The results showed that forest lopping was the most significant anthropogenic disturbance for biomass and total carbon density balance. A higher degree of lopping in the forests resulted in a lowering of the forests' carbon stock in the study area. SOC showed no significant response to any of the tested anthropogenic disturbances. Woody species richness and number of saplings increased with an increasing number of stumps, which signifies that intermediate disturbance was beneficial. However, a higher intensity of lopping reduced the sapling density. Grazing/trampling was the most significant disturbance for inhibiting seedling growth. Areas in the forests with a higher intensity of trampling showed lower numbers of seedlings and saplings. These results will be a guide for managing anthropogenic disturbances in multiple-use forests in Nepal, as well as those in similar socio-economic environments worldwide.

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    Spatio-temporal Changes in Wildlife Habitat Quality in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River from 1980 to 2100 based on the InVEST Model
    LI Qing, ZHOU Yong, Mary Ann CUNNINGHAM, XU Tao
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2021, 12 (1): 43-55.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2021.01.005
    Abstract280)   HTML185)    PDF (1126KB)(285)      

    The Yangtze River (YZR) regions have experienced rapid changes after opening up to economic reforms, and human activities have changed the land cover, ecology, and wildlife habitat quality. However, the specific ways in which those influencing factors changed the habitat quality during different periods remain unknown. This study assessed the wildlife habitat quality of the middle and lower YZR in the past (1980-2018) and in future scenarios (2050, 2100). We analyzed the relationships between habitat quality and various topological social-economic factors, and then mapped and evaluated the changes in habitat quality by using the Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. The results show that the slope (R = 0.502, P < 0.01, in 2015), elevation (R = 0.003, P < 0.05, in 2015), population density (R = -0.299, P < 0.01, in 2015), and NDVI (R = 0.366, P < 0.01, in 2015) in the study area were significantly correlated with habitat quality from 2000 to 2015. During the period of 1980-2018, 61.93% of the study area experienced habitat degradation and 38.07% of the study area had improved habitat quality. In the future, the habitat quality of the study area will decline under either the A2 scenario (high level of population density, low environmental technology input, and high traditional energy cost) or the B2 scenario (medium level of population density, medium green technology and lack of cooperation of regional governments). The results also showed that habitat in the lower reaches or north of the YZR had degraded more than in the middle reaches or the south of YZR. Therefore, regional development should put more effort into environmental protection, curb population growth, and encourage green technology innovation. Inter-province cooperation is necessary when dealing with ecological problems. This study can serve as a scientific reference for regional wildlife protection and similar investigations in different areas.

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    Research Framework for Ecosystem Vulnerability: Measurement, Prediction, and Risk Assessment
    WANG Yajun, ZHONG Lifang
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2020, 11 (5): 499-507.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.05.007
    Abstract269)   HTML11)    PDF (408KB)(69)      

    The fragility of ecosystem health has become a key factor hindering the sustainable development of the ecological environment. Through a review of published research from domestic and foreign scholars, starting from the endogenous logic of studies in the field of ecosystem vulnerability (EV), this paper sorts out the literature on the aspects of measurement models, prediction methods and risk assessment, comprehensively defines the research category and scientific framework of EV, and analyzes the research ideas and development trends. We arrived at the following conclusions: 1) The connotation of ecosystem vulnerability not only embodies the change in the vulnerability of the natural environment, but it also reflects the irreversible damage to the ecosystem caused by excessive development and industrial production activities. 2) The setting of ecosystem vulnerability indices should aim to fully reflect the essential features of that vulnerability, which should include the index systems of natural, social, economic and other related factors. 3) There are many types of ecosystem vulnerability measurement methods, prediction models and risk evaluation models, which have different focuses and advantages. The most appropriate method should be adopted for conducting comprehensive and systematic evaluation, prediction and estimation according to the different representation and evolution mechanisms of the chosen research object and regional ecosystem vulnerability. 4) Based on the regional system characteristics, corresponding risk management measures should be proposed, and pertinent policy suggestions should be put forward to improve the ecological safety and sustainable development of an ecologically vulnerable area.

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    Impact of Land Use Changes on Habitat Quality in Altay Region
    WANG Baixue, CHENG Weiming, LAN Shengxin
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2021, 12 (6): 715-728.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2021.06.001
    Abstract256)   HTML16)    PDF (6885KB)(65)      

    Altay region is located in the northern part of Xinjiang, and has complex and diverse internal geomorphic types, undulating terrain and a fragile ecosystem. Studying the impact of land use changes on habitat quality is of great significance to regional ecological protection and development, rational planning and utilization, and ensuring the sustainable development of the ecological environment. Based on the InVEST model, combined with land use panel data and topographic relief data of the Altay region, this paper studied the habitat quality from 1995 to 2018. The results show that cultivated land, water area and construction land increased gradually from 1995 to 2018, while grassland and unused land decreased. Forestland remained stable in the first five periods, but increased significantly in 2018. During 1995-2018, all land use types were transferred, mainly between cultivated land, forestland, grassland and unused land in the flat and slightly undulating areas. Poor habitat quality was dominant during 1995-2018. Habitat quality decreased significantly in 2015, which was related to the rapid expansion of cultivated and construction land as threat sources, as well as the decrease of forest and grassland as sensitive factors. However, habitat quality improved significantly in 2018, because a large amount of cultivated land and unused land were converted into forest land and grassland with high habitat suitability. Land use type has an important influence on habitat quality. The distribution characteristics of habitat quality for topographic relief types from good to bad were: large undulating area>medium undulating area>small undulating area>flat area>slightly undulating area. The findings of this study are of great significance for coordinating social, economic, and ecological development in this region and in similar areas.

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    Comparative Life Cycle Assessment of Two Types of Truck Bumper Produced in the Algerian Auto Industry
    KEBBOUCHE Zahia, TAIRI Abdelaziz, SAFI Brahim
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2020, 11 (4): 378-387.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.04.006
    Abstract248)   HTML1)    PDF (5693KB)(32)      

    Currently, the reduction of weight in automotive is a very important topic to reduce the air pollution. In this context, the purpose of the present paper is to analyze a real case study through a comparison of the environmental impacts between a conventional steel bumper and a polyester prototype. In the first part of this work, a door-to-door life-cycle assessment methodology was used throughout the study of the component manufacturing phase. The SimaPro 7.1 software is used to evaluate the impacts of both bumpers on the environment and health. The second part is devoted to dust analysis from the polyester workshop. The obtained results have allowed us to show the company that its choice of steel substitution by the polyester is advantageous for certain impacts including the impact of climate change, but unfortunately there may be, given the working conditions of the polyester workshop, a transfer of impact, since we will end up with a risk of health (irritations, cancers) for the workers. LCA has proven to be a very useful tool for validating a redesigned automotive component from an environmental point of view; from this case study, several recommendations were made for the company to design environmentally friendly components, and ecodesign should be introduced into the company’s procedures.

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    Comparison and Analysis of Estimation Methods for Heavy Metal Pollution of Farmland Soils
    Mamattursun EZIZ, Adila HAYRAT, YANG Xiuyun
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2020, 11 (5): 435-442.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.05.001
    Abstract231)   HTML7)    PDF (492KB)(42)      

    Heavy metal pollution of farmland soils is a serious environmental problem. The accurate estimation of heavy metal pollution levels of farmland soils is very crucial for sustainable agriculture. Concentrations of heavy metal elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn) in farmland soils at 186 sampling sites in the Baghrash Lake Basin, NW China, were determined and analyzed based on the pollution index (Pi), the geo-accumulation index (Igeo), the enrichment factor (EF), the ecological risk index (ER), and the environmental risk index (Ier). The results of these five different estimation methods were compared and discussed. The obtained results indicated that the average concentrations of all the heavy metals in the farmland soils of the study area were lower than the Soil Environmental Quality of China (GB 15168-2018) levels, but the average concentrations of Cd, Cr, Ni, Pb, and Zn exceed the corresponding background values. Significant differences in estimation results existed between the five estimation methods. Based on the identified concentrations, the average Pi, Igeo, and EF values of the heavy metals in farmland soils decreased in the order of: Zn > Pb > Cd > Cr > Ni > Cu > As, whereas the average ER values decreased in the order of: Cd > As > Cu > Pb > Ni > Cr > Zn, and the average Ier values decreased in the order of: Cd > Cu > Zn > As = Pb > Cr > Ni. The pollution class values with different estimation methods were ranked as: Pi > Igeo = EF > ER = Ier. The obtained results suggest that the most appropriate estimation method and soil background values of farmlands should be used for better understanding the environmental quality of farmland soils. Overall, the EF and ER methods are recommended for assessing heavy metal pollution risks of farmland soils.

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    Community Structure and Diversity Distribution Pattern of Sandy Plants in the Middle and Upper Reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River
    LI Chao, XU Wenli, LI Qingkang, WANG Jingsheng
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2021, 12 (1): 11-21.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2021.01.002
    Abstract226)   HTML171)    PDF (3587KB)(80)      

    The Yarlung Zangbo River Basin is an important populated area in Tibet, and its plant community structure and diversity pattern have attracted the attention of many scholars. In this paper, the distribution pattern of plant diversity and the environmental factors impacting it in the middle and upper reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River are revealed and discussed through sample surveys and climate and habitat data. The results show that the plant communities in the study area can be divided into seven types according to the dominant species: Artemisia minor + Stipa purpurea, Artemisia wellbyi + Festuca ovina, Potentilla fruticosa + Orinus thoroldii, Trikeraia hookeri + Artemisia frigida, Kobresia pygmaea, Sophora moorcroftiana + Artemisia hedinii, and Sophora moorcroftiana + Pennisetum centrasiaticum. Plant diversity decreases with decreasing longitude, increasing latitude, and increasing altitude; and the diversity distribution pattern in the study area has distinct zonal characteristics. Water and heat are the main factors which affect the distribution of vegetation types. The explanation rates of water and heat for the plant diversity distribution pattern were 19.3% and 5.7%, respectively, while the spatial variation explained by these two factors together was 60.8%. Therefore, the coupling effect is obvious.

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    Ungulate Mortality due to Fencing and Perceptions of Pasture Fences in Part of the Future Qilianshan National Park
    Sydney M. GREENFIELD, Aliana C. NORRIS, Joseph P. LAMBERT, Wu liji, Se yongjun, ZHAN Jinqi, MA Bing, LI Deng, SHI Kun, Philip RIORDAN
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2021, 12 (1): 99-109.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2021.01.010
    Abstract226)   HTML15)    PDF (780KB)(56)      

    Fencing is an important part of husbandry for pastoral communities; however, these same fences can have unintended consequences for wildlife populations by restricting movement, reducing connectivity, and causing direct mortality. This paper assesses the current status and effects of fencing present in Yanchiwan National Nature Reserve, soon to be part of the recently proposed Qilianshan National Park. A questionnaire survey was conducted among 70 households to gauge local herders’ perceptions of fences, threats of fencing to native ungulates, and the number of wildlife found entangled in fencing. We found that local communities rely on fencing for livestock management and individuals who had encountered wildlife entangled in fences were more likely to perceive fences as having negative effects. Furthermore, those who perceived fencing as harmful to wildlife were more likely to support the dismantling of fences. On the other hand, families who needed to hire others to tend to their livestock were less likely to support dismantling efforts. However, the best model was only able to account for some of the data variability, suggesting that while perceptions of fences are important, other factors could be influencing support for fence dismantling. Hence, increasing awareness of threats alone may not be enough to generate community support of a fence dismantling program. Therefore, outreach and community collaboration to reduce the impacts of fence alterations upon livestock management will be necessary for a successful fence dismantling program within the new national park. Finally, those surveyed reported finding kiang, argali, and Tibetan gazelle dead in fences, with kiang found more often than the other two. This suggests that these three species may be more vulnerable to fence entanglement and that they are good targets for future studies and dismantling efforts.

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    Space Changes in the Rural Tourism Area of Mufu Town, Hubei Province, China
    TAO Hui, GAO Jing, CHEN Kaiqiang
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2020, 11 (6): 633-644.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.06.011
    Abstract225)   HTML11)    PDF (2718KB)(44)      

    In a society dominated by tourism consumption, space changes occurring in rural areas can generally reflect their social changes. On the theoretical basis of flow, regeneration and adaptation of rural tourism space, this paper originally and creatively proposes that the spatial elements in a rural tourist area can be classified into three categories: Attractions (A), Towns (T) and Villages (V). By analyzing the spatial transformation characteristics of A, T and V, five types of rural spatial transition modes are found, the types of heritage, theme park, those serving as scenic spots, leisure industrial clusters and ecotourism areas. These different classes emerge due to their geographical differentiation. They show the same spatial evolution trend: The Attractions are distributed throughout the whole area and characterized by diversification; supporting services facilities gather in the Towns; and the Villages are landscape images. In this area the traditional rural benefit trends toward that of compound development. Mufu Town, Hubei province, is taken as a study case, and the changing characteristics of A, T and V from 2006 to 2016 are described. Problems in the process of establishing the new spatial order are considered. In order to realize the synergy between production space, living space and ecological space, the interactive development between Attractions, Towns and Villages is recommended. The perspective of Attraction-Town-Village (ATV) can lead to a better understanding of the situation of tourism space in rural areas and provide directions for thinking about the reconstruction path for the modernization of traditional societies.

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    Residents’ Perception of the Recreational Value of Forest Parks: A Case Study in Shanghai, China
    ZHANG Kaixuan, WANG Xiaoling, SHI Jiaying, ZHANG Xijin, ZHU Qichong
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2020, 11 (4): 425-434.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.04.011
    Abstract220)   HTML1)    PDF (1041KB)(39)      

    Forest parks provide important recreational and tourism bene?ts to residents, so it is essential to know what residents’ perceptions are regarding the recreational value of forest parks for participatory forest planning and management. This study investigated forest park recreational value in the physical, psychological, and social dimensions in Shanghai according to questionnaires completed by 658 respondents, and examined the relationships between recreational value and residents’ social variables by multiple correspondence analysis (MCA). The results show the following: 1) The recreational value of forest parks is perceived as most important in the psychological dimension, while in the social dimension it is appreciated the least. 2) In terms of the differences in forest park recreational value in suburbs and rural areas, the social value in rural areas had significantly higher scores than in the suburbs, and the psychological value in suburbs is much higher than that in the rural areas. 3) Regarding the social variables which characterize residents in suburbs and rural areas, females and younger groups tended to assign higher scores to recreational value than males and older groups. Moreover, citizens with low education or low income also assigned higher scores to recreational value compared to more educated or higher-income residents. The results of this study reveal the recreational value characteristics of Shanghai forest parks in the three dimensions, which can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of urban forest resources and contribute to reasonable planning and management.

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    The Concept, Connotation and Significance of Cultural Keystone Species in Agricultural Heritage Systems
    MIN Qingwen, YANG Xiao, DING Lubin
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2022, 13 (1): 51-60.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2022.01.006
    Abstract219)   HTML3)    PDF (630KB)(20)      

    As a new type of heritage, Agricultural Heritage Systems (AHS), represented by Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems (GIAHS) designated by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and Nationally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems (NIAHS) designated by some countries’ Ministry of Agriculture, are typical Social-Ecological Systems (SES), which usually are rich in biodiversity, traditional knowledge, resource utilization technology and outstanding cultural landscapes. Cultural Keystone Species (CKS) are defined as the culturally salient species that shape the cultural identity of a people in a major way. CKS can be used as a prominent tool for the synergistic conservation of SES biology and culture, and to promote the overall enhancement of system functions. This paper summarizes a review of the definition of the CKS and its application in SES conservation. According to the characteristics and protection needs of AHS, this paper defined the CKS in AHS as: “Composites of biological resources and cultural practices, which have a significant impact on the stability of local society and culture systems, contribute to the achievement of AHS’ conservation goals.” Based on this definition, we analyzed the significance of the identification of CKS in AHS. First of all, CKS help to quickly identify the key elements of AHS. Secondly, CKS can promote community participation in the conservation and development of AHS. In addition, the identification of CKS has a significant role in food and livelihood security, biodiversity conservation, traditional knowledge and technology transmission, social organization maintenance, and cultural landscape maintenance in AHS, which helps to achieve the conservation goals of GIAHS and/or NIAHS.

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    Effect of Land Use and Land Cover Change on the Changes in Net Primary Productivity in Karst Areas of Southwest China: A Case Study of Huanjiang Maonan Autonomous County
    ZHANG Mengyu, ZHANG Li, REN Xiaoli, HE Honglin, LV Yan, WANG Junbang, YAN Huimin
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2020, 11 (6): 606-616.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.06.008
    Abstract208)   HTML29)    PDF (1086KB)(75)      

    Karst areas in southwest China have experienced significant land cover and land use change (LUCC) due to utilization for human activity and a comprehensive rocky desertification control project (RDCP) since 2008. It is important to quantify the effect of LUCC on ecosystem productivity in this region for assessing the overall benefit of this ecological restoration project. In this study, we used using MODIS land cover and NPP products to investigate the relative contribution of LUCC to the change in net primary productivity (NPP) during 2008-2013 in Huanjiang County, one of first one hundred pilot counties to implement RDCP. Our results show that NPP increased in 95.53% of the county, and the average growth of NPP in non-rocky desertification area was higher than in rocky desertification or potential rocky desertification areas. LUCC has an important contribution (25.23%) to the NPP increase in the county, especially in the LUCC area (70.97%), which increased the average NPP by 3.9% and 10.5%, respectively. Across the six RDCP regions in the county, the average increase in NPP for the vegetation restoration measure of governed karst area is significantly greater than in the ungoverned karst area, and the positive change in NPP increased with the increasing implementation area of the vegetation restoration measure.

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    Relationship between Industrialization, Urbanization and Industrial Ecology in Western China: A Panel Vector Auto-Regression Model Analysis
    WANG Yajun
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2021, 12 (1): 68-79.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2021.01.007
    Abstract206)   HTML27)    PDF (632KB)(46)      

    As the foundation of modern economic development, industry is the engine of industrialized and urbanized development. Industrial ecology is a high-level form of industry that is achieved after it has reached a certain stage, which guides the coordinated industrial development balancing mankind and nature. The implementation of industrial ecology is an important method and effective approach to realize the sustainable development of industrialization and urbanization. In this article, based on the inter-provincial panel data of western China during 2003-2018, the spatial development trends of industrialization, urbanization and industrial ecology are analyzed, and an empirical method is employed to conduct a robustness test based on the Panel Vector Auto-Regression (PVAR) model to determine the long-term interactions among these three aspects. The results show that it is difficult to manifest the short-term causal relationships among industrialization, urbanization and industrial ecology. After lagging for three periods, they present the Granger causality, the industrial ecology and industrialization have promoted urbanization, and the coefficient for the influence of industrial ecology on urbanization is 0.4612. However, industrialization and urbanization have negative impacts on industrial ecology, and with a 1% increase in industrialization or urbanization, the industrial ecology will decline by 0.2261% or 0.2850%, respectively. With the continuation of the lagging period, industrial ecology will have better interpretability than industrialization and urbanization, and industrialization and eco-friendly development have strong self-accumulation development mechanisms, while the self-accumulation mechanism of urbanization is not obvious, and it might even have a decline. By fulfilling the role of the regional leading industry, the state of unbalanced internal development can be improved, so as to realize mutual promotion between industrialization and urbanization. By improving the utilization rates of resources and energy, efforts should be made to implement green production, significantly promote industrial ecology, and boost high-quality development of both the regional economy and society.

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    Functional Zoning Mode and Management Measures of Qianjiangyuan National Park based on Ecological Sensitivity Evaluation
    LIU Qingqing, YU Hu
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2020, 11 (6): 617-623.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.06.009
    Abstract202)   HTML210)    PDF (2594KB)(53)      

    Functional zoning is an important guarantee for regulating the land use intensity of national parks and maintaining the integrity and stability of natural ecosystem. In this paper, we tease out of the functional zoning models and methods based on the empirical analysis of the world national parks, and then take the Qianjiangyuan National Park (QNP) as an example, study the functional zoning method based on ecological sensitivity. Results show that, the goal of national park construction in the world is changing from enhancing national cohesion to displaying the national image, from the pure natural protection and recreation use to protection of the comprehensive function of natural ecosystem integrity protection, recreation, environmental education, etc. The establishment of QNP is to protect the natural ecosystem of sub-tropical lowland broad-leaved evergreen forest, also to meet the community development and recreational consume of large population in Eastern China. So this paper establishes an evaluation index system based on ecological sensitivity, combining ecosystem services, potential habitats of important species, and development opportunities. Based on the analysis result, the functional zoning of QNP can be divided into strict protection area, ecological conservation area, traditional using area and recreational area. In this way, it can make the functional partition reflect system controls thought in area difference and space layout, and take the corresponding management measures in different functional areas, to promote the sustainable evolution of the natural ecological system in national park.

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    Evolution Characteristics of Urban Land Use Efficiency under Environmental Constraints in China
    SHI Jiaying, HE Yafen
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2021, 12 (2): 143-154.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2021.02.002
    Abstract200)   HTML10)    PDF (849KB)(16)      

    In the context of high-quality economic development and coordinated regional development, this paper measures the urban land use efficiency of 275 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2016, taking into account the unexpected output (environmental pollution), and explores the temporal and spatial evolution of urban land use efficiency through kernel density estimation and spatial autocorrelation analysis. The results show that: (1) From 2003 to 2016, China’s urban land use efficiency showed an overall fluctuating growth, but it remained at a low level. The mean value of urban land use efficiency has been gradually decreasing in east, west and central regions. (2) In the whole country and the eastern, central and western regions, the regional differences have been increasing, and the efficiency values of the whole country and the east have become polarized. (3) Urban land use efficiency shows a weak spatial positive correlation, but the degree of spatial agglomeration is increasing. High-high agglomeration areas are mostly distributed in the southeastern coastal areas, and extend into the central region, while most of the high-low polarized areas are the capital cities of the central and western regions. The low-high depressed areas are scattered around the high-value accumulation areas, some of which have turned into high-high agglomeration areas during the study period, while the low-low homogeneous areas are mainly distributed in the central, western and northeastern regions. Therefore, it is proposed that strengthening the utilization of urban stock land, strengthening the regional cooperation mechanism, and formulating policies which improve the efficiency of land use are effective ways to promote the intensive and economical use of urban land, as well as regional coordinated development.

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    Study of Vulture Habitat Suitability and Impact of Climate Change in Central India Using MaxEnt
    Kaushalendra K. JHA, Radhika JHA
    Journal of Resources and Ecology    2021, 12 (1): 30-42.   DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2021.01.004
    Abstract196)   HTML96)    PDF (2943KB)(57)      

    Vultures provide invaluable ecosystem services and play an important role in ecosystem balancing. The number of native vultures in India has declined in the past. Acquiring present knowledge of their habitat spread is essential to manage and prevent such a decline. It is envisaged that ongoing climate crisis may further cause change in habitat suitability and impact the existing population. Therefore, this study in Central India—a vulture stronghold, is aimed at predicting habitat changes in the short and long term and present the data statistically and graphically by using Species Distribution Model. MaxEnt software was chosen for its advantages over other models, like using presence-only data and performing well with incomplete data, small sample sizes and gaps, etc. Global Climate Model ensemble (CCSM4, HadGEM2AO and MIROC5), was used to get better prediction. Fourteen robust models (AUC 0.864-0.892) were developed using data from over 1000 locations of seven vulture species over two seasons together. Selected climatic and other environmental variables were used to predict the current habitat. Future prediction was based on climatic variables only. The most important variables influencing the distribution were precipitation (bio 15, bio 18, bio 19) and temperature (bio 3, bio 5). Forest and water bodies were the major influencers within land use-landcover in the current prediction. At finer scale, while extremely suitable habitat area decreased and highly suitable area increased over time, the total suitable area marginally increased in 2050 but decreased in 2070. For broader consideration, net loss in suitable area was 5% in 2050 and 7.17% in 2070 (RCP4.5). Similarly, in the RCP8.5 this was 6% in 2050 and 7.3% in 2070. The data generated can be used in conservation planning and management and thus protecting the vultures from any future threat.

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