资源与生态学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 12 ›› Issue (1): 43-55.DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2021.01.005

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基于InVEST模型的1980-2100年长江中下游地区动植物生境质量时空变化研究

李晴1(), 周勇1,*(), Mary Ann CUNNINGHAM2, 徐涛1   

  1. 1.华中师范大学 城市与环境科学学院,武汉 430079, 中国
    2.瓦萨学院 地球科学与地理系,纽约州 波基普西 12603,美国
  • 收稿日期:2020-07-31 接受日期:2020-09-20 出版日期:2021-01-30 发布日期:2021-03-30
  • 通讯作者: 周勇

Spatio-temporal Changes in Wildlife Habitat Quality in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River from 1980 to 2100 based on the InVEST Model

LI Qing1(), ZHOU Yong1,*(), Mary Ann CUNNINGHAM2, XU Tao1   

  1. 1. The College of Urban & Environmental Sciences, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China
    2. Department of Earth Science and Geography, Vassar College, Poughkeepsie, New York 12603, USA
  • Received:2020-07-31 Accepted:2020-09-20 Online:2021-01-30 Published:2021-03-30
  • Contact: ZHOU Yong
  • About author:LI Qing, E-mail: ennstar@mails.ccnu.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(41271534);China Scholarship Council(201906770044)

摘要:

20世纪80年代以来,人类活动加速了长江流域的土地利用变化,这对当地动植物的生境质量造成了影响,在中国生态文明建设和长江经济带发展战略不断推进的大背景下,对长江中下游地区的生境质量变化开展长时间多时段的研究具有重要的现实意义。本研究以长江中下游地区7省的土地利用覆盖数据(1980-2018年)与未来土地利用模型模拟出未来四种情景(A1B,A2,B1,B2)下的土地利用覆盖数据(2050年,2100年)为基础,借助环境服务与权衡综合评估(InVEST)模型评估了长江中下游地区的生境质量时空变化。结果表明:(1)2000-2015年,研究区的坡度(R = 0.502,P < 0.01)和海拔(R = 0.003,P < 0.05)、人口密度(R = -0.299,P < 0.01)、NDVI(R = 0.366,P < 0.01)与生境质量显著相关;(2)从1980年到2018年,研究区总面积61.93%的土地生境质量下降,38.07%的土地生境质量上升;在A2情景(人口密度大,环境技术投入少,传统能源成本高)和B2情景(中等人口密度,中等绿色技术,区域政府间缺乏合作)下,研究区的生境质量将下降;(3)长江下游的生境质量恶化程度高于中游,研究区北部的生境质量恶化程度低于南部。整体上,积极的环境保护政策是有效的,但并未根本上遏制生境质量的整体退化趋势。区域发展应加大环境保护力度,控制人口增长,鼓励绿色技术创新,在处理生态问题时,要注重省际合作。本研究可为区域野生动植物保护规划和国际上的类似流域研究提供科学参考。

关键词: 土地利用变化, 生境质量, InVEST模型, 情景模拟

Abstract:

The Yangtze River (YZR) regions have experienced rapid changes after opening up to economic reforms, and human activities have changed the land cover, ecology, and wildlife habitat quality. However, the specific ways in which those influencing factors changed the habitat quality during different periods remain unknown. This study assessed the wildlife habitat quality of the middle and lower YZR in the past (1980-2018) and in future scenarios (2050, 2100). We analyzed the relationships between habitat quality and various topological social-economic factors, and then mapped and evaluated the changes in habitat quality by using the Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. The results show that the slope (R = 0.502, P < 0.01, in 2015), elevation (R = 0.003, P < 0.05, in 2015), population density (R = -0.299, P < 0.01, in 2015), and NDVI (R = 0.366, P < 0.01, in 2015) in the study area were significantly correlated with habitat quality from 2000 to 2015. During the period of 1980-2018, 61.93% of the study area experienced habitat degradation and 38.07% of the study area had improved habitat quality. In the future, the habitat quality of the study area will decline under either the A2 scenario (high level of population density, low environmental technology input, and high traditional energy cost) or the B2 scenario (medium level of population density, medium green technology and lack of cooperation of regional governments). The results also showed that habitat in the lower reaches or north of the YZR had degraded more than in the middle reaches or the south of YZR. Therefore, regional development should put more effort into environmental protection, curb population growth, and encourage green technology innovation. Inter-province cooperation is necessary when dealing with ecological problems. This study can serve as a scientific reference for regional wildlife protection and similar investigations in different areas.

Key words: land use change, habitat quality, trade-off, InVEST model, scenario simulation