资源与生态学报

资源与生态学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 8 ›› Issue (4): 385-391.DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2017.04.010

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生态技术措施对无定河年输沙量影响研究

李敏1, 张长印2, 王海燕2, 王森3   

  1. 1. 水利部黄河水利委员会黄河上中游管理局,西安 710021;
    2. 水利部水土保持监测中心,北京 100055;
    3. 中科院水利部水土保持研究所,陕西杨凌 712100
  • 收稿日期:2017-05-02 修回日期:2017-06-30 出版日期:2017-07-30 发布日期:2017-07-30
  • 通讯作者: WANG Haiyan, E-mail: sbzxwhl@yeah.net

Influence of Ecological Technology Measures on the Annual Sediment Load of the Wuding River

LI Min1, ZHANG Changyin2, WANG Haiyan2, *, WANG Sen3   

  1. 1. Upper and Middle Yellow River Basin Authority of Yellow River Conservancy Commission of Ministry of Water Resources, Xi’an 710021, China;
    2. Monitoring Center of Soil and Water Conservation, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100053, China;
    3. Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest Agricultural and Forestry University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China
  • Received:2017-05-02 Revised:2017-06-30 Online:2017-07-30 Published:2017-07-30
  • Supported by:
    National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFC0503700)

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摘要： 生态技术措施对河流年输沙量的影响遵从统计学原理。本文以无定河年输沙量为因变量,以无定河汛期降雨、暴雨和生态技术措施面积为自变量,采用逐步回归方法,分析研究了1956-2007年时段生态技术措施对无定河年输沙量的影响。结果表明,（1）计算建立了由“无定河7-8月降雨量”、“生态技术措施面积”和“无定河最大一日降雨量”等三个自变量组成的非线性回归方程,相关系数R2=0.857,显著性水平α=0.001。（2）调整R2=0.717,说明回归方程“解释”了52年时段无定河年输沙量71.7%的变化。（3）生态技术措施面积的标准化回归系数在三个自变量中绝对值最大,说明其对年输沙量变化的影响最大。（4）通过实施生态技术措施,到2007年治理水平年,即使是在7-8月降雨量和最大一日降雨量均为研究时段内最大值时,计算年输沙量为1.49亿t,仅为历史最大值的36%。

关键词: 泥沙, 年输沙量, 评价, 生态技术, 无定河

Abstract: The influence of ecological technology measures on the annual sediment loads of rivers complies with the principles of statistics. In this paper, the annual sediment load of the Wuding River is taken as the dependent variable and the rainfall, rainstorms during the flood period of the Wuding River and areas of ecological technology measures are taken as the independent variables to analyze the influence of ecological technology measures on the annual sediment load of the Wuding River during the years 1956 to 2007. This research uses a stepwise regression method. The result shows that 1) the non-linear regression equation composed of three independent variables including 7-8 monthly rainfalls along the Wuding River, areas of ecological technology measures and maximum daily rainfall along the Wuding River has been calculated and set up; the correlation coefficient is R2=0.857 and the significance level is α=0.001. 2) R2=0.717 is adjusted and the regression equation reveals a change of annual sediment load exceeding 71.7% over 52 years; 3) The standardized regression coefficient for ecological technology measure area has the maximum absolute value of the three independent variables shows maximum influence on the change of annual sediment load; and 4) Because of implementing the ecological technology measures, until to year of 2007, when the 7-8 monthly rainfall and maximum daily rainfall are the maximum values in the research section, the annual sediment load is calculated as 149million ton, which is 36% of the maximum value in the history.

Key words: annual sediment load, ecological technology and evaluation, sediment, Wuding River