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Journal of Resources and Ecology >

2025 , Vol. 16 >Issue 3: 802 - 814

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2025.03.016

Land Resource and Land Use

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics and Driving Factors of Cultivated Land in Anhui Province

  • HAN Zhongwang , 1, 3 ,
  • RUAN Yunfeng , 1, 2, * ,
  • HUO Kun , 1, 4, * ,
  • JIAO Chunyu 1
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  • 1. School of Public Policy and Management, Anhui Jianzhu University, Hefei 230022, China
  • 2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
  • 3. China Spatial Planning Institute, Beijing 100176, China
  • 4. Tianjin North China Geological Exploration Bureau, Tianjin 300171, China
* RUAN Yunfeng, E-mail: ;
HUO Kun, E-mail:

HAN Zhongwang, E-mail:

Received date: 2024-05-16

  Accepted date: 2024-09-15

  Online published: 2025-05-28

Supported by

Social Scientific Innovation and Development Research Project of Anhui Province(2021CX090)

Key Project in Humanities and Social Sciences of Anhui Provincial Department of Education(2022AH050222)

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Abstract

Rapid population growth, industrialization, and urbanization are driving an increasing demand for land in various industries, which is reducing the available cultivated land resources. This study used the Land-use Dynamic Degree Model and Geo-Detector to explore the spatial and temporal variations in cultivated land resources and the driving factors of cultivated land changes in Anhui Province from 2009 to 2018, using data on cultivated land area and socio-economic indicators. The findings showed reductions in both the total cultivated land area and the per capita cultivated land area in Anhui Province from 2009 to 2018. Most prefecture-level cities experienced reductions in their cultivated land area, with only a few showing increases. All prefecture-level cities except Wuhu City showed decreasing trends in per capita cultivated land area. The changes in the cultivated land area in Anhui Province have been influenced by various socio-economic factors. The impacts of interaction factors were more significant than those of any single factor during the study period. Among these interaction factors, the regional economic structure, level of agricultural technology, state of agricultural production, status of rural development, condition of the rural labor force, and governmental investment and regulation were shown to be crucial and prioritized. These factors significantly contributed to the variations in cultivated land area within Anhui Province. Therefore, balancing the relationship between economic growth and cultivated land preservation, especially strictly implementing cultivated land protection policies, is significantly beneficial for achieving sustainable socio-economic development.

Key words： cultivated land; socio-economics; land use dynamics; geographic detector; Anhui Province

Cite this article

HAN Zhongwang , RUAN Yunfeng , HUO Kun , JIAO Chunyu . Spatial and Temporal Dynamics and Driving Factors of Cultivated Land in Anhui Province[J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2025 , 16(3) : 802 -814 . DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2025.03.016

1 Introduction

Cultivated land is the fundamental agricultural production factor that plays an extremely important role in ensuring food security and supporting the livelihoods of farmers in China. This is attributed to its limited availability, scarce supply, and distinctive multifunctionality (Tang, 2021). Since the reform and opening up, urbanization in China has been progressing rapidly. The population has been growing and economic construction has made historic achievements, injecting new vitality into China’s rural and urban areas.However, the rapid process of urbanization has expedited alterations in land use and management. The uncontrolled expansion of construction land encroaching on cultivated land resources has become a prevalent phenomenon. This has resulted in declines in both the scale and quantity of cultivated land, leading to a gradual reduction in the effective supply of cultivated land resources and exacerbating the disparity between the supply and demand of cultivated land (Wang et al., 2022). The formal integration of the Yangtze River Delta as a national strategy has presented Anhui Province with a significant development opportunity. This province is currently in the process of actively integrating into the Yangtze River Delta and is at a crucial stage of industrialization and urbanization. This transition has resulted in various environmental challenges, including the conversion of substantial amounts of high-quality farmland for urban development, inefficient urban land use, and damage to the ecological environment (Zhao et al., 2021).
Land-use and land-cover changes are influenced by a variety of biophysical and societal factors operating on several spatial and temporal levels, which act in intricate webs of place- and time-specific relationships (Briassoulis, 2009). Cultivated land change is intimately linked to the progress of social and economic development. Research on changes in cultivated land and the factors influencing these changes has consistently been a topic of significant interest. For instance, Zhang et al. (2020) showed that in Anhui Province, the extent of high-quality cultivated land is limited, the overall quality of cultivated land is not high, and the issue of contaminated cultivated land is particularly conspicuous. These factors significantly impede both the yield and quality of crops. Wang et al. (2021) revealed the correlation between changes in cultivated land and ecological dynamics in the Yangtze River Delta. The rapid process of urbanization has caused a notable reduction in the cultivated land area, leading to a subsequent reduction in the application of nitrogen fertilizers, which has resulted in a reduction in NH3 emissions from the farmland ecosystem. Jiang et al. (2021) illustrated a reduction in the cultivated land area and a rise in construction land in Anhui Province from 1980 to 2018 by developing a land use uptrend map. Zhao et al. (2021) used the DEA-BBC model and the Malmquist index test method to demonstrate an augmentation in the overall utilization efficiency of cultivated land in counties within Anhui Province. These studies explored the impact of farmland pollution on grain production, the impact of urbanization on farmland area, the changes in farmland area and construction land area, the increasing trend of farmland utilization efficiency in Anhui Province, and the effects of technological progress and industrialization on farmland production and utilization efficiency. Nonetheless, relevant studies conducted at the provincial level are scarce, specifically within Anhui Province, indicating a shortage of research on the impacts of factors such as the level of regional economic development, the composition of the regional economy, the level of agricultural technology and production, rural development and the rural labor force, and the extent of government investment and regulation. Moreover, the impacts of socio-economic variables on the spatial and temporal changes in cultivated land within the region need to be quantitatively evaluated. Therefore, this article examines the impacts of these factors on the spatiotemporal changes of cultivated land in Anhui Province and fills the research gap on the spatiotemporal changes of cultivated land in Anhui Province, thereby providing support for the sustainable development of cultivated land at the provincial scale.
The geographic detector is a new statistical method for identifying spatial heterogeneity and elucidating the underlying causal factors. This method is characterized by its convenience, simplicity, ease of operation, minimal assumptions, and widespread applicability for detecting driving factors. Its extensive use in various domains such as land use (Cai and Pu, 2014; Ju et al., 2016), regional economic development and planning (Ding et al., 2014; Yang and Shi, 2014), and ecological and environmental studies (Yu and Liu, 2015; Li et al., 2016; Ren et al., 2016) has demonstrated good applicability. Geographic detectors have great advantages in analyzing influencing factors such as changes in arable land. For example, Wu et al. (2022) found that the five factors of population (POP), distance from city left (DC), distance from the railway (DRW), school (SC), and gross domestic product (GDP) have significant impacts on land use costs in Chongqing. Zhao and Yin (2023) found through a geographic detector model that the level of urbanization has the greatest correlation with the occupation of arable land by urban and rural construction. Studies have shown that urbanization patterns are of great significance for the temporal, spatial, and structural characteristics of urban and rural construction and arable land occupation. For example, Zhang et al. (2023b) found through factor detection using a geographic detector that the explanatory power of agricultural machinery was the strongest, and the explanatory power of socio-economic factors increased over time. Examining the interactions of factors revealed the impact of annual average temperature on the added value of the primary industry. The factors that influence changes in cultivated land encompass both natural and socioeconomic elements. In the context of rapid population expansion, industrialization, and urbanization, socioeconomic factors have emerged as the primary drivers of cultivated land alterations. The geographic detector has proven to be a valuable instrument for investigating the causal factors behind cultivated land changes in Anhui Province. Hence, there is a need for further exploration into the spatial and temporal evolutionary characteristics, as well as the influencing factors of cultivated land resources in Anhui Province, using spatial and temporal perspectives and geographic detector methods.
As a crucial component of the Yangtze River Delta integration, the cultivated land in Anhui Province holds significant importance for ensuring people’s livelihoods, as well as preserving social harmony and stability. Analyzing the spatio-temporal changes in cultivated land resources and the factors influencing them is of immense practical significance. This study focused on Anhui Province as the research area and used data on the cultivated land area and socio- economic factors from 2009 to 2018. The spatio-temporal changes in cultivated land were analyzed using ArcGIS 10.2 software. A model for the rate of cultivatedland change in Anhui Province was developed based on the dynamic land use model. Furthermore, the geographic detector was employed to identify the social factors influencing changes in cultivated land in Anhui Province. The aim was to offer better solutions for the management and conservation of cultivated land resources in Anhui Province and to establish a theoretical framework for future research.

2 Study area and methods

2.1 Study area

Anhui Province (29°25′-34°39′N, 114°43′-119°38′E) is located in central eastern China, and falls within the East China region. The region north of the Huaihe River forms a segment of the North China Great Plain. In the central region of the province, numerous mountains and hills are situated between the Huaihe River and the Yangtze River. The topography surrounding the Yangtze River, Chaohu Lake, and the adjacent areas is characterized by low, flat terrain, which represents the middle and lower sections of the Yangtze River Plain. The southern region is characterized by an abundance of mountains and hills. This province can be broadly categorized into five natural regions: the Huaibei Plain, the Jianghuai Hills, the Dabie Mountainous Area in western Anhui, the plains along the river, and the mountains in southern Anhui (Figure 1). By the end of 2022, Anhui Province had a resident population of 61.27 million, an annual GDP of 4.5 trillion yuan, and a per capita GDP of 73603 yuan.
Figure 1 Location of Anhui Province

2.2 Research data

This study incorporated fundamental geographic information, cultivated land data, and socio-economic data. The fundamental geographic data encompassed administrative division information and the digital elevation model of Anhui Province. The dataset comprised vector maps of Anhui Province, detailing its administrative divisions. The digital elevation data primarily originated from the Resource and Environment Science and Data Center (http://www.resdc.cn/). The data on cultivated land were obtained from the official website of the Ministry of Natural Resources, and specifically included data on cultivated land area in 16 prefecture level cities in Anhui Province from 2009 to 2018. Socio-economic data primarily originated from the Statistical Yearbook of Anhui Province spanning from 2009 to 2018, as well as the National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletins of individual cities (http://tjj.ah.gov.cn/), as detailed in Table 1.
Table 1 Table of factors influencing the area of cultivated land in Anhui Province
Connotation of influencing factor Unit
Population density (PD) person km-2
GDP per capita (GPC) yuan person-1
Proportion of primary industry (PPI) %
Proportion of secondary industry (PSI) %
Proportion of tertiary industry (PTI) %
Area sown with grain crops (ASGC) ha
Grain yield (GY) t
Total power of agricultural machinery (TPAM) 104 kW
Effective irrigated area (EIA) 103 ha
Fertilizer application rate (FAR) t
Rural electricity consumption (REC) 104 kWh
Pesticide usage (PU) t
Fiscal expenditure (FE) 104 yuan
Number of rural employees (NRE) person
Among the factors used in this study, population density (PD) signifies the degree of regional urbanization, while GDP per capita (GPC) indicates the level of regional economic development. The proportions of the primary industry (PPI), secondary industry (PSI), and tertiary industry (PTI) reflect the composition of the regional economy. The area sown with grain crops (ASGC), grain output (GY), total power of agricultural machinery (TPAM), effective irrigation area (EIA), fertilizer usage (FAR), rural electricity consumption (REC), and pesticide application (PU) are indicative of the level of agricultural technology and production. Rural electricity consumption (REC) and the number of rural workers (NRE) are representative of rural development and the rural labor force. Lastly, fiscal expenditure (FE) reflects the extent of government investment and regulation.

2.3 Research method

2.3.1 Workflow diagram

This study used ArcGIS 10.2 software to examine the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in cultivated land in Anhui Province. A model for the rate of cultivated land change in Anhui Province was developed using the Land-use Dynamic Degree Model, and geo-detectors were employed to identify the social factors influencing the changes in cultivated land in Anhui Province. This study also assessed the extent of influence of key socio-economic factors on the spatiotemporal changes in cultivated land. The technical methodology is illustrated in Figure 2.
Figure 2 Workflow diagram

2.3.2 Land-use dynamic degree model

The data model illustrating the quantitative variations in land use types over a specific period reflects the extent, intensity, and pace of land use alterations, along with regional disparities in land use modifications, and is known as land use dynamics. This study focused on single land use dynamics and employed the following formula:
K = U b − U a U a × 1 T × 100 %
where K represents the scope of a land use type change over the study period, where Ua denotes the initial area of a land use type, Ub indicates the final area of the land use type, and T represents the duration of the study (Zhang et al., 2023a).

2.3.3 Geographic detector

Geographic detectors are instruments used to identify and leverage spatial variations. This study employed methods of divergence, factor detection, and interaction detection.
Differentiation and factor detection involve identifying the spatial variance in Y and determining the degree to which each factor X accounts for the spatial variance in attribute Y, as quantified by the q-value. The formulas are as follows:
$ \begin{array}{c} q=1-\frac{\sum_{h=1}^{L} N_{h} \sigma_{h}^{2}}{N \sigma^{2}}=1-\frac{S S W}{S S T} \\ S S W=\sum_{h=1}^{L} N_{h} \sigma_{h}^{2} \\ S S T=N \sigma^{2} \end{array}$
In this context, h=1, 2, …, L represents the stratification (Strata), which refers to the categorization or partitioning of variable Y or factor X; Nh and N denote the number of cells in stratum h and the entire region, respectively; and σh2 and σ2 represent the variance of Y values in stratum h and the entire region, respectively. The variables SSW and SST represent the sum of within-stratum variance (Within Sum of Squares) and the total variance of the entire region (Total Sum of Squares), respectively.
Interaction detection involves the identification of interactions between various risk factors (i.e., various Xs). The relationship between X1 and X2 can be classified into categories of nonlinear attenuation, one-factor nonlinear attenuation, two-factor enhancement, independent, or nonlinearenhancement (Wang and Xu, 2017).

3 Results

3.1 Characteristics of temporal changes in cultivated land

The results indicate generally decreasing trends in both the area of cultivated land and per capita cultivated land in Anhui Province. Specifically, the cultivated land area in Anhui Province decreased by 21078 ha overall from 2009 to 2018, with an average annual decline of 2107.8 ha (Figure 3). However, compared to the previous year, there were significant increases in cultivated land area in 2013, 2015, and 2018.
Figure 3 Trends in cultivated land area and per capita cultivated land area in Anhui Province
The cultivated land area demonstrated growth in 2013, 2015, and 2018, with increments of 1799 ha in 2013, 373 ha in 2015, and 19195 ha in 2018. The increases in 2013 and 2015 were predominantly associated with cultivated land policy influences.
The period spanning from 2005 to 2013 represents the mature stage of China’s cultivated land policy. During this period, a systematic framework for managing the quality of cultivated land had been progressively developed, and this framework integrated the preservation of both the quantity and quality of cultivated land. The cultivated land policy evolved from establishing broad principles to specifying detailed technological methods. This framework enabled the initial implementation of multi-directional monitoring of cultivated land activities such as “granting, supplying, using, replenishing, and checking”, and efforts have been made to explore incentives for cultivated land protection. As a result, the cultivated land protection policy has become more scientifically sound, reasonable, and feasible over time. The advancement of the cultivated land protection policy represents significant progress and a landmark achievement in the overall development of this policy (Wang et al., 2018).

3.2 Characteristics of spatial changes in cultivated land

The cultivated land area in Anhui Province is predominantly located in northern and central Anhui, with a smaller proportion in southern Anhui (Figure 4a). Among the cities, Fuyang City and Chuzhou City have the largest cultivated land area, exceeding 60×104 ha. The per capita cultivated land area is predominantly concentrated in the northern Anhui region. Among these cities, Chuzhou City has the largest total cultivated land area and the highest per capita cultivated land area. The cultivated land area and per capita cultivated land area are lower in southern Anhui, while the per capita cultivated land area is lower in central Anhui.
Figure 4 Cultivated land area (a) and per capita cultivated land area (b) in 2018; and changes in cultivated land area (c) and changes in per capita cultivated land area (d) between 2009 and 2018 in Anhui Province
The disparities in the total cultivated land area and per capita cultivated land area in the central and southern Anhui regions compared to the northern Anhui region are influenced by various factors such as topography, industrialization, and urbanization. In general, northern Anhui possesses ample amounts of cultivated land and per capita cultivated land. On the other hand, central Anhui exhibits a lower per capita cultivated land compared to northern and southern Anhui, primarily due to rapid urbanization and industrialization. Despite having the second-largest area of cultivated land after northern Anhui, central Anhui’s per capita cultivated land remains lower. Influenced mainly by its topography, southern Anhui has the smallest area of cultivated land. Nevertheless, its per capita cultivated land is the second highest after northern Anhui (Figure 4b).
The cultivated land area in Anhui Province has shown a consistent decline over the period from 2009 to 2018 (Figure 4c), with an overall reduction of 21078 ha. The 11 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province showed an overall reduction of 3.979×104 ha in cultivated land area. Among them, Ma’anshan City experienced the most significant decline, with a 1.6965×104 ha reduction in cultivated land area between 2009 and 2018. Five prefecture-level cities showed a growing trend in cultivated land area, with a total increase in cultivated land area of 1.8712×104 ha. Among these cities, Wuhu City experienced the largest increase, growing by 1.1688×104 ha between 2009 and 2018. The number of prefecture-level cities experiencing a rise in cultivated land area was lower than those encountering a decline, with the extent of increase being less than that of the decrease. This pattern indicates inadequate utilization of cultivated land in Anhui Province and significant conversion of cultivated land to other land categories, and it underscores the critical nature of addressing issues related to cultivated land protection.
The per capita cultivated land area in Anhui Province has been experiencing a general decline (Figure 4d). Similarly, most of the prefecture-level cities in the province have also been witnessing reductions in per capita cultivated land area, with the exception of Wuhu City, where the per capita cultivated land area has been increasing. Among the 15 prefecture-level cities where this reduction was observed, Suzhou City, Bozhou City, Lu’an City, and Anqing City experienced increases in cultivated land area between 2009 and 2018. This trend indicates increasing pressure on the utilization and protection of cultivated land in Anhui Prefecture.
The overall rate of the dynamic change of cultivated land in Anhui Province during this period was -0.036%. This rate falls within the range of -0.09% to 0, indicating a relatively slow decline. Furthermore, most of the prefecture-level cities also exhibited relatively slow rates of decline in cultivated land area (Figure 5a). The rates of change in land use varied between 0 and 0.4562% in five cities. The growth rates of cultivated land area in these five prefecture-level cities were relatively slow. The integration of the Yangtze River Delta is facilitating Anhui Province’s engagement in industries from Shanghai, Zhejiang Province, and Jiangsu Province. This integration is also driving the advancement of the social economy and promoting the industrialization and urbanization processes. However, it is expected to significantly impact the land use structure in Anhui Province. This impact is evident in the accelerated reduction of cultivated land areas in certain prefecture-level cities. Consequently, a substantial portion of cultivated land is being transformed into construction land to support urban development and construction activities, leading to notable structural changes in land use within Anhui Province. The primary issue affecting the current land use status in Anhui Province is the gradual reduction of cultivated land area.
Figure 5 Rates of dynamic change of cultivated land area (a) and per capita cultivated land area (b) in Anhui Province
On average, the per capita cultivated land in most prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province experienced a slower rate of decline, with dynamic change rates ranging from -0.976% to 0 (Figure 5b). The per capita cultivated land area in Wuhu city experienced a dynamic change rate of 0.338%. Although there has been an increase in the per capita cultivated land area, the rate of increase has been slow. This suggests that the population growth rate exceeds the rate of increase in cultivated land area in terms of both quantity and speed.
Rapid population growth, urbanization, and industrialization play a significant role in promoting socio-economic development. However, the expansion of cultivated land in Anhui Province remains limited despite these advancements. This constraint poses challenges in meeting the demands of socio-economic development, exacerbating the conflict between human activities and land use. Balancing socio-economic development with the protection of cultivated land and agricultural production is crucial for ensuring harmonious development.

3.3 Influencing factors

In this study, the cultivated land area in each prefecture-level city in Anhui Province was considered as the dependent variable. The geographic detector method was employed to quantitatively analyze the controlling factors, and 14 indicators were chosen as independent variables based on the characteristics of the study area.
The geographic detector can identify pairs of interacting factors affecting the dependent variable. The combination of these factors can encompass either multiplicative or other types of relationships. Whenever a relationship exists, it can be examined (Wang et al., 2017). This feature is beneficial for establishing connections between cultivated land in Anhui Province and the influencing factors, thereby enhancing the reliability of the results.

3.3.1 Detection of individual impact factors

The individual detection outcomes of the factors influencing the spatiotemporal variations of cultivated land in Anhui Province are presented in Figure 6. The q-values for EIA, GY, and ASGC indicate strong correlations. The q-values for FAR, NRE, and TPAM demonstrate secondary strong correlations. PPI, GPC, REC, PU, and FE show tertiary strong correlations. PD, PSI, and PTI show weak correlations.
Figure 6 Single-factor detection radar map of factors influencing the spatial and temporal changes of cultivated land in Anhui Province
The q-value analysis results indicate that the level of agricultural technology and the status of agricultural production have direct impacts on land use structure and types. Their influence is manifested through higher-level planning processes that determine and safeguard the use and types of cultivated land, as well as the establishment of high-standard farmland. These factors affect the effective irrigated area and the sown area of food crops, and they directly contribute to changes in cultivated land area. Furthermore, advancements in agricultural science and technology, along with the integration of the latest agricultural production achievements, play a significant role in enhancing crop yields per unit area. In addition, the progression of agricultural science and technology, coupled with the adoption and utilization of cutting-edge agricultural innovations, stimulate an increase in crop yield efficiency. Moreover, the increasing mechanization of agriculture further boosts crop yields, thereby enhancing agricultural productivity. A limited portion of the cultivated land is allocated for alternative purposes to some extent, influencing modifications in land use and the cultivated land area. This practice links agriculture to the land and its fertility, thereby ensuring that alterations in agriculture are mirrored by changes in cultivated land.
The results indicate a rise in the demand for electricity and other energy sources, reflecting the progress in rural industries and the overall development of rural areas. The living standards of farmers are impacted, leading to changes in the cultivated land area. The evolution of rural industries and shifts in farmers’ living standards have a significant impact on the employment of rural laborers. In addition, the phenomenon of rural areas losing population and alterations in the industrial landscape influence the number of rural laborers engaged in agricultural activities, the fallow status of cultivated land, and employment opportunities in non-agricultural sectors.
The regional economic structure, which consists of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries, signifies the distribution of each industry within the national economy. It mirrors the evolution of various industries, wherein industry development entails alterations in land use structure and type. The primary transformation in land use type occurs between cultivated land and construction land, and this transformation is closely linked to changes in the proportions of different industries and the cultivated land area. The development of agriculture relies on cultivated land, while secondary and large-scale tertiary industries require support from construction land. The regional economy and its structure play a significant role in influencing changes in the cultivated land area.
The economic development status of Anhui Province, along with the extent of governmental investment and regulation, significantly influence the allocation of resources towards the conservation and utilization of cultivated land resources. The economic development level in Anhui Province signifies the overall economic capacity within the region, and this level directly impacts the quantity of resources available for the utilization and protection of cultivated land. Moreover, the extent of governmental investment and regulation reflects the resources that the government can allocate towards the management and safeguarding of cultivated land, as well as its ability to respond promptly or gradually to changes in cultivated land area. For example, the extent of governmental regulation plays a crucial role in influencing the execution of governmental land planning, land enhancement, and other advanced planning initiatives, as well as the logical distribution and utilization of land resources. Consequently, this factor impacts any alterations in cultivated land area. The process of urbanization in Anhui Province significantly impacts the alteration of cultivated land area due to the growing urban population’s demand for land for construction purposes. As urban land is primarily designated for construction within city limits, rapid urbanization has resulted in the haphazard expansion of city boundaries towards suburban and rural areas. Consequently, land near the city limits and beyond has been converted from cultivated land to urban construction sites. The government employs administrative and economic measures to regulate the disorderly expansion of city boundaries. This strategy aims to decelerate the outward growth of the city boundary, promote intensive land use within the city, foster urbanization within Anhui Province, and control the outward expansion. Simultaneously, the government implements macro-level land use regulations and converts some land outside the city boundary into urban construction land to support the city’s sustainable development. Consequently, this transformation leads to a shift in the cultivated land area, thereby impacting the overall cultivated land area. As a result, changes in cultivated land area often have a specific impact.

3.3.2 Detection of factor interactions

This study tested for interactions among the factors influencing the spatio-temporal changes of cultivated land in Anhui Province using geographic detectors, and the strength of influence of each factor post interaction was calculated (Figure 7). The q-values of the interaction probes exceed those of the single probes, and most of the interaction probes exhibit two-factor enhancements, with only a minimal number showing nonlinear enhancements. These findings suggest that alterations in the spatial and temporal distribution of cultivated land in Anhui Province have been influenced by combinations of various socioeconomic factors. The interplay among regional economic structure, agricultural technology level, agricultural production status, rural development status, rural labor force status, and governmental investment and regulation level, along with other factors, has consistently remained significant from 2009 to 2018. This persistence indicates that changes in regional economic structure, adjustments in the agricultural technology level, advancements in agricultural technology, and enhancements in agricultural technology have collectively contributed to an increase in the q value. These findings indicate that modifications of the regional economic structure, advancements in agricultural technology and production, progress in rural economy and industry, and enhancement of the rural labor force, along with governmental investments and regulations, significantly influence the spatial and temporal variations in cultivated land area in Anhui Province.
Figure 7 Heat map of the influences of factor interactions on spatiotemporal changes of cultivated land in Anhui Province

Note: Only the four-year impact factor interaction detection heat maps for 2009, 2013, 2015, and 2018 are shown since the number of heat maps for each period is too large to show them all.

4 Discussion

4.1 Changes in cultivated land and their influencing factors

This study employed the Land-use Dynamic Degree Model, Geo-Detector, and other research methods to examine the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of cultivated land resources and their influencing factors in Anhui Province from 2009 to 2018. The findings indicated general decreasing trends in both the cultivated land area and per capita cultivated land area of Anhui Province over the specified period. However, there were no significant increases in the cultivated land area or per capita cultivated land area over the decade. Notably, the cultivated land area experienced increases in 2013, 2015, and 2018, with the most substantial increase observed in 2018. The cultivated land areas of the main prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province showed declining trends that were concentrated and continuous throughout the province. Among them, Ma’anshan City experienced the most significant reduction in cultivated land area. In the comprehensive strategy of integrating Anhui Province into the Yangtze River Delta, the per capita cultivated land area of all prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province experienced reductions, except for Wuhu City. Overall, the declines in cultivated land area and per capita cultivated land area were more gradual. The fluctuations in the cultivated land area in Anhui Province primarily stem from the combined influence of various socio-economic factors. The continuous development of social economy, population growth, changes in industrial structure and other factors are the leading factors affecting the changes in land use structure (Wang, 2023). A previous study on the transformation of construction land and cultivated land in various cities showed that the cities with a large area of cultivated land transferred to construction land in Anhui Province were the cities with a higher level of economic development (Li et al., 2023). The detection of interactive factors showed that they play a more significant role than the individual factors. Within the realm of interactive factor detection, the examination of regional economic structure, agricultural technological advancements, agricultural production levels, rural development status, rural labor force conditions, governmental investment and regulatory measures, and other related factors showed greater importance and ranked higher. This comprehensive analysis better elucidates the changes in cultivated land area and exerts a more substantial impact on the overall cultivated land area.
In this study, single-factor and interactive factor detection analyses were conducted using the geographic detector to explore the primary socioeconomic factors influencing changes in cultivated land areas. Various scholars have employed diverse research methodologies and considered various socioeconomic factors, with population, economy, and agriculture consistently emerging in these analyses (He, 2020; Zhang, 2021; Fan et al., 2022; Li et al., 2022a; Li et al., 2022b; Xu et al., 2022). These factors collectively exert a significant influence on the fluctuations in cultivated land area. The rapid increases in population, industrialization, and urbanization have led to significant pressure on cultivated land resources. However, the advancement of agricultural technology has to some extent alleviated this pressure on the protection of cultivated land. Hence, implementing the strategy of “storing grain in the land and storing grain in technology” is of significant practical importance for the utilization and conservation of cultivated land resources.
Fourteen socio-economic influencing factors exhibited varying degrees of effectiveness in elucidating the changes in cultivated land within Anhui Province, all exceeding 0.15 (Figure 8), so these factors have a certain level of impact on the spatiotemporal dynamics of cultivated land in Anhui Province. The q-values for EIA and GY consistently exceeded 0.9 over the 10-year period, consistently placing them in the top three positions and indicating strong correlations. Similarly, the q-value for ASGC remained above 0.9 from 2009 to 2017, placing it in the top three rankings. However, the q-value decreased to 0.887 in 2018, resulting in a fourth place ranking while still indicating its strong correlation. The q-values for FAR and NRE consistently fell between 0.8 and 0.9 over the 10-year period, ranking within the top seven. This places them in the middle-front category, indicating secondary strong correlations. In contrast, the q-value for TPAM was 0.635 in 2016, ranking 9th, and 0.914 in 2018, ranking 3rd. Its value fluctuated significantly in 2016 and 2018 but stabilized within the top six for the remaining eight years, demonstrating its secondary strong correlation. The q-values for PD and PSI fluctuated between 0.5 and 0.8, indicating their weak correlations as they rank at the bottom. In contrast, the q-value for PTI consistently remained below 0.4, ranking last and showing its weak correlation, like PD and PSI. The other factors, after sorting and analysis, all showed tertiary strong correlations.
Figure 8 Correlations of factors influencing cultivated land changes based on the results of single factor detection in Anhui Province

Note: ****, ***, **, and * indicate strong correlation, secondary strong correlation, tertiary strong correlation, and weak correlation, respectively.

4.2 Reasons for the changes in cultivated land

Ma’anshan City has a small hinterland and a high degree of industrialization, and it is adjacent to Nanjing City, making it suitable for industrial activities. The increases in cultivated land areas in the prefecture-level cities were minimal. The scattered distribution of these cities makes them geographically close to the prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province, facilitating the industrial transfer from the coastal region within the Yangtze River Delta. These cities also enjoy easier access to the economic advantages resulting from the integration of the Yangtze River Delta. Consequently, they have experienced a faster pace of urbanization, industrialization, and population growth, leading to greater demand for land and a more pronounced impact on farmland occupation.
The expansion of cultivated land in China is influenced by various factors such as the regional urbanization development status, regional economic development level, regional economic structure, agricultural technology level, agricultural production, rural development status, rural labor force, and governmental investment and regulation. Strategies to increase the cultivated land area include replenishment of cultivated land and agricultural structural adjustment. Conversely, strategies to reduce the cultivated land area involve construction occupation, ecological succession, disaster damage, and reductions in agricultural structural adjustment (Wang et al., 2020). As the level of socio-economic development advances, the impact of socio-economic factors on the alteration of cultivated land area in Anhui Province has intensified. The conversion of cultivated land into construction land is a continuous process, with the most significant transformation occurring between cultivated land and construction land in this province during the research period (Jiang et al., 2021).
This study explored the spatial and temporal evolution of cultivated land resources in Anhui Province, along with the influencing factors, using spatial and temporal perspectives and geodetic detector methods. The findings offer a theoretical foundation and guidance for the management and conservation of cultivated land resources in Anhui Province. The occupation of cultivated land due to the expansion of construction land has received attention at the national level, and in the future, the key to stabilizing the amount of cultivated land will depend on whether the rapid “non-grain” and “non-agricultural” phenomenon of cultivated land can be curbed (Liu, 2022). These efforts aim to enhance land use efficiency and remediation capabilities, address the conflict between social development construction and agricultural land use in the province, and ensure the sustainable development of the agricultural sector and the overall socio- economic well-being. This study primarily emphasized socioeconomic aspects and excluded natural factors. Socioeconomic factors are well-suited for quantitative analysis due to the availability of statistical data, whereas natural factors are challenging to analyze quantitatively. Natural factors are typically subjected to qualitative analysis, leading to their exclusion from this study. This study incorporated various socio-economic factors such as PD, GPC, PPI, PSI, PTI, ASGC, GY, TPAM, EIA, FAR, REC, PU, FE, and NRE. These 14 factors may influence the study results to some extent due to the duplicative and overlapping nature of certain factors. In addition, the scope of this study was limited to the provincial scale of Anhui Province and the municipal scale of 16 prefectural cities, so it did not encompass the scales of each county in Anhui Province or the Yangtze River Delta region as a whole. This limitation results in a somewhat one-sided view in the study’s findings, leading to a weak correlation with the county scale of Anhui Province and the Yangtze River Delta regional scale. The research methodology employed in this study encompassed the Land Use Dynamic Attitude Model and Geographic Detector. While these methods have proven effective in achieving the desired outcomes, the outcomes of various research methods must be compared to minimize the uncertainty in the analysis.

5 Conclusions

Based on the data of cultivated land area and socio-economic indicators from 2009 to 2018 in Anhui Province, this study used the Land-use Dynamic Degree Model and Geo- Detector to explore the spatial and temporal variations in cultivated land resources in Anhui Province. It also identified the primary socio-economic factors influencing the changes in cultivated land. The primary research findings can be summarized in three main points.
(1) The cultivated land area and per capita cultivated land area in Anhui Province both exhibited general decreasing trends from 2009 to 2018. However, there was no increase in the cultivated land area or per capita cultivated land area over the decade, but there were notable fluctuations. Specifically, the cultivated land area experienced some growth in 2013, 2015, and 2018, with the most significant increase observed in 2018.
(2) The cultivated land areas of the major prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province exhibited declining trends, which were concentrated and continuous throughout Anhui Province. Among these cities, Ma’anshan City has experienced the most significant reduction in cultivated land area. This decline can be attributed to factors such as its limited hinterland, high level of industrialization, and the neighboring city of Nanjing taking on its industrial activities. The expansion of cultivated land in prefecture-level cities contributed only marginally to the overall increase in the cultivated land area, resulting in a fragmented distribution. Anhui Province is actively participating in the integration of the Yangtze River Delta, which has brought significant development opportunities, and this integration is promoting urbanization and industrialization in Anhui Province. However, it has also led to a greater demand for land, resulting in cultivated land occupation. The amount of cultivated land per capita declined in all prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province, except for Wuhu City. The reductions in both total cultivated land area and per capita cultivated land area have exhibited a relatively gradual pace.
(3) The changes in the cultivated land area in Anhui Province are primarily attributed to the combined influences of various socio-economic factors. The analysis indicated that interaction factors play a more significant role than single factors. Within the realm of interaction factor detection, the regional economic structure, the level of agricultural technology and production, the status of rural development, the condition of the rural labor force, and the government’s level of investment and regulation exhibit substantial importance. These factors rank highly and exert considerable impacts on the fluctuations in the cultivated land area in Anhui Province. The explanation regarding the fluctuations in cultivated land area is robust, with a significant impact on the cultivated land area in Anhui Province.

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