Journal of Resources and Ecology >
MaxEnt Modeling for Predicting Suitable Habitats of Snow Leopard (Panthera uncia) in the Mid-Eastern Tianshan Mountains
GONG Jianhui, E-mail: gjh2545334285@163.com |
Received date: 2023-03-14
Accepted date: 2023-05-16
Online published: 2023-08-02
Supported by
The Qilian Mountains, Eastern TianShan Snow Leopard Specialized Survey(2017092302)
The Eastern Tien Shan Snow Leopard Specialized Survey(2018HXFWBHQ-SK-01)
The Fundamental Investigation of Wild Animal and Plant Resources of Eastern Tianshan State Forestry Administration(XJSZG2022-102)
Studies of species habitat and distribution patterns are an important prerequisite for conservation efforts, and habitat quality and integrity play a crucial role in the population health and recovery of endangered species. This is especially applicable to the snow leopard, a top predator that is key to highland mountain ecosystems. In this study, 112 valid snow leopard distribution loci obtained by infrared camera surveys in the mid-eastern Tianshan, Xinjiang were examined. Combined with 12 characteristic environmental variables, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and GIS techniques were used to analyse the potential distribution areas and suitable habitats of snow leopards in the mid-eastern Tianshan. The results showed that the total area of suitable habitat for snow leopards in the mid-eastern Tianshan was 15919 km2, and the most suitable habitat was mainly concentrated in a western patch around Wusu, Hutubi, and the southern mountains of Urumqi. The results of a Jackknife analysis showed that land cover type, the daily difference in average temperature, isothermality, slope, and altitude were important factors affecting the distribution of snow leopards. Deciduous coniferous forests, grasslands, and bare rock areas with sparse vegetation at altitudes from 2500 m to 5000 m are the areas where snow leopards have a higher probability of occurrence in the mid-eastern Tianshan. This study determined the key distribution areas of snow leopards and provides a scientific basis for establishing key areas for snow leopard monitoring and protection in the mid-eastern Tianshan.
GONG Jianhui , LI Yibin , WANG Ruifen , YU Chenxing , FAN Jian , SHI Kun . MaxEnt Modeling for Predicting Suitable Habitats of Snow Leopard (Panthera uncia) in the Mid-Eastern Tianshan Mountains[J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2023 , 14(5) : 1075 -1085 . DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2023.05.018
Fig. 1 Grid planning and camera arrangement |
Fig. 2 Altitude and land cover share of the 194 snow leopard occurrence events |
Fig. 3 Map of the snow leopard locations recorded by infrared cameras in the survey area |
Fig. 4 Predictive effectiveness ROC curve for the model |
Fig. 5 Jackknife test for variable environmental characteristics of the MaxEnt model |
Table 1 Percentage contributions and importance values of the environmental variables |
Environment variable | Description | Contribution rate (%) | Displacement importance (%) |
---|---|---|---|
Land cover | Land cover type | 53.8 | 6.7 |
Bio2 | Mean diurnal range (mean of monthly (max temp-min temp)) | 14.4 | 42.4 |
Bio3 | Isothermality (Bio2/Bio7) (×100) | 9.4 | 20.7 |
Bio17 | Precipitation of driest quarter | 6.5 | 7.2 |
Altitude | Altitude | 4.5 | 7.1 |
Bio15 | Precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation) | 4.0 | 7.9 |
Bio9 | Mean temperature of driest quarter | 2.5 | 6.5 |
Bio11 | Mean temperature of coldest quarter | 1.7 | 0.2 |
Dist_road | Distance to the roads | 1.6 | 1.0 |
Aspect | Aspect | 1.4 | 0.3 |
Slope | Slope | 0.2 | 0.1 |
HFI | Human footprint influence | 0 | 0 |
Fig. 6 Response curves of the major factors influencing the habitat suitability for snow leopards in the mid-eastern TianshanNote: * Meaning of land cover values: 72 means closed evergreen needle-leaved forest; 81 means open deciduous needle-leaved forest; 82 means closed deciduous needle-leaved forest; 130 means grassland; 150 means sparse vegetation; 200 means bare areas; and 220 means permanent ice and snow. |
Table 2 The areas of each potential habitat suitability class for snow leopards in each sub-survey area in the mid-eastern Tianshan |
Sub-survey area | Excellent habitat (km2) | Good habitat (km2) | Poor habitat (km2) | Total (km2) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Wusu | 242.8 | 1186.0 | 1040.3 | 2469.2 |
South mountain of Urumqi | 407.5 | 897.5 | 853.8 | 2158.8 |
Mulei | 58.4 | 792.6 | 1306.4 | 2157.4 |
Shawan | 271.0 | 857.3 | 682.8 | 1811.1 |
Kumul | 5.6 | 306.2 | 1326.8 | 1638.6 |
Qitai | 205.5 | 775.0 | 318.9 | 1299.4 |
Hutubi | 400.5 | 394.9 | 432.2 | 1227.6 |
Manasi | 114.7 | 494.1 | 590.6 | 1199.4 |
Banfanggou | 41.5 | 382.2 | 440.6 | 864.4 |
Jimusaer | 83.1 | 494.1 | 248.5 | 825.7 |
Miquan | 5.6 | 157.7 | 104.2 | 267.5 |
Total | 1836 | 6738 | 7345 | 15919 |
Fig. 7 Species distribution map of snow leopard habitat suitability levels in the mid-eastern Tianshan |
Table 3 Main environmental impact factors of each patch |
Patch | All patches | Eastern patch | Central patch | Western patch |
---|---|---|---|---|
Permutation importance (top five) | Land cover | Land cover | Land cover | Land cover |
Mean diurnal range | Altitude | Mean diurnal range | Mean diurnal range | |
Isothermality | Mean diurnal range | Altitude | Isothermality | |
Slope | Slope | Isothermality | Slope | |
Altitude | Mean temperature of driest quarter | Slope | Altitude | |
Contribution degree results (top five) | Land cover | Land cover | Land cover | Land cover |
Mean diurnal range | Precipitation of driest quarter | Mean diurnal range | Mean diurnal range | |
Isothermality | Isothermality | Precipitation seasonality | Mean temperature of coldest quarter | |
Precipitation of driest quarter | Precipitation seasonality | Precipitation of driest quarter | Precipitation of driest quarter | |
Altitude | Slope | Isothermality | Altitude |
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