Journal of Resources and Ecology >
Research on the Evolution Trend of Carbon Emissions under Exogenous Shocks: Evidences from Russia
WAN Yongkun, E-mail: wanyongk@163.com |
Received date: 2021-12-18
Accepted date: 2022-09-07
Online published: 2023-02-21
Supported by
The Ministry of Science & Technology Basic Resources Survey Project(2017FY101304)
The Gansu Provincial Department of Education Project(GSSYLXM-06)
The Gansu Provincial Social Science Fund Project(2021YB074)
The Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics Scientific Research Innovation Team Project(2020TD08)
At present, carbon intensity in the economy has become a realistic problem faced by many countries. Decarbonization and green development have gradually become one of the main trends in the world, and major countries around the world have put forward carbon neutrality targets. Russia is one of the largest greenhouse gas emitters in the world. Therefore, under the current international situation of The Russia-Ukraine war and the exogenous impact on Russia’s economy and finance, it is of great significance to study Russia’s carbon emissions for Russia’s economic development, environmental protection and global green development. In recent years, Russia’s carbon intensity has remained high, which may be caused by several factors, such as the decline in actual investment level, single industrial structure, excessive dependence on oil and gas industry, external shocks to the Russian economy in 2014 and other macroeconomic factors. The purpose of this study is to identify trends in carbon intensity during the period of exogenous shocks to the Russian economy and financial sector from 2014 to 2018, and to explain the causes. First, the synthetic control method is used to examine the changes in Russia’s carbon intensity since 2014, and the results show that since 2014, Russia’s carbon intensity has increased significantly; Secondly, using the mediation effect analysis model to test the impact mechanism, it is found that since 2014, the Russian industrial structure has not been actively improved, but instead increased its dependence on the resource industry, thereby increasing carbon emissions. Combined with the tail effect analysis, Russia has faced significant economic pressure, and its carbon intensity is unlikely to return to the state before 2014 in the short term.
WAN Yongkun , ZHAO Xiaoliang , HAI Ruxin . Research on the Evolution Trend of Carbon Emissions under Exogenous Shocks: Evidences from Russia[J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2023 , 14(3) : 454 -467 . DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2023.03.003
Table 1 The weight composition of “synthetic Russia” |
Country ( region) | India | Colombia | Chile | Saudi Arabia | Thailand | Macedonia |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Weights | 0.016 | 0.438 | 0.001 | 0.239 | 0.225 | 0.081 |
Table 2 Fitting of related variables from 2009 to 2013 |
Variable | Russia | Synthetic Russia | Average of other countries |
---|---|---|---|
Proportion of exported goods | 27.562 | 39.032 | 51.530 |
Energy structure | 0.887 | 0.854 | 1.465 |
Energy intensity | 15.857 | 14.659 | 4.873 |
Degree of industrial deepening | 2.133 | 1.439 | 2.056 |
Skill improvement | 1.089 | 0.379 | 0.896 |
Note: The other countries are the 25 countries selected above, including the Philippines, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Czech Republic, Macedonia, Estonia, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Lithuania, Hungary, Croatia, Bulgaria, Romania, Latvia, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Morocco, Peru. |
Fig. 1 Carbon emissions in “real Russia” and “synthetic Russia” |
Fig. 2 The gap in carbon emissions between “real Russia” and “synthetic Russia” |
Table 3 Benchmark regression results for Russia’s carbon intensity after exogenous shocks (DID method) |
Variable | No control variable added | Added control variable | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
3.368** (2.27) | 4.341*** (5.33) | 4.472*** (4.52) | 4.461*** (5.13) | |
Proportion of exported goods | - | - | -0.068*** (-3.01) | 0.012 (1.18) |
Energy structure | - | - | 8.964* (1.83) | -0.173** (-2.08) |
Energy intensity | - | - | 0.106*** (3.84) | -0.030 (-1.57) |
Degree of industrial deepening | - | - | 0.847 (1.65) | 0.343 (0.90) |
Skill improvement | - | - | -1.493** (-2.67) | -0.220 (-1.24) |
Fixed time effect | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Fixed country effect | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Control groups | Colombia, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Macedonia, India,Chile | Colombia, Saudi Arabia,India,Chile | Colombia, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Macedonia, India, Chile | Other 25 countries (areas) except Russia |
Observations | 70 | 70 | 70 | 260 |
R2 | 0.070 | 0.945 | 0.960 | 0.961 |
Note: *, **, and *** are significant at levels of 0.1, 0.05, and 0.01, respectively. |
Fig. 3 Trends of carbon emissions (Placebo test) in “real Thailand” and “synthetic Thailand” |
Fig. 4 Distribution of carbon emissions difference between Russia and 19 other countriesNote: RMSPE≤0.240994. Since the focus of this paper is on the impact of Western sanctions on Russia’s carbon emissions, due to space limitations, the 19 other countries represented by each dotted line in Fig. 4 will not be listed in the figure for lack of space. The 19 other countries are Philippines, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Lithuania, Hungary, Croatia, Romania, Latvia, Chile, Mexico, Morocco, Peru, respectively. |
Table 4 Effect of sanctions pressure on mediating variables in Western countries |
Variable | Percentage of secondary industry output (1) | Total primary energy production (2) | Skill improvement (3) | Proportion of foreign direct investment in GDP (4) |
---|---|---|---|---|
2.561*** (3.10) | 4.564*** (3.38) | -0.150* (-1.68) | -2.099** (-2.13) | |
Proportion of exported goods | 0.008 (0.41) | -0.042*** (-3.78) | 0.001 (0.47) | 0.028 (0.53) |
Energy structure | -0.007 (-0.03) | 0.129 (1.25) | 0.020 (0.91) | -0.127 (-0.19) |
Energy intensity | 0.595*** (6.12) | -0.021 (-0.87) | -0.001 (-0.31) | 0.0410 (0.42) |
Degree of industrial deepening | -7.202*** (-5.27) | -0.329 (-0.82) | -0.128* (-1.94) | -3.344 (-1.38) |
Skill improvement | 0.153 (0.46) | -0.130 (-0.32) | -2.974 (-1.43) | |
Fixed time effect | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Fixed country effect | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Observations | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 |
R2 | 0.985 | 0.997 | 0.966 | 0.149 |
Note: The numbers in parentheses are the t-values of robust clustering; *, **, and *** are significant at levels of 0.1, 0.05, and 0.01, respectively. |
Table 5 Effect of mediating variables on carbon emissions in Russia |
Variable | Carbon emissions | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | ||
4.236*** (4.69) | 3.629*** (3.13) | 4.461*** (5.13) | 4.462*** (5.11) | ||
Percentage of secondary industry output | 0.088* (1.85) | ||||
Total primary energy production | 0.182* (1.72) | ||||
Skill improvement | -0.220 (-1.24) | ||||
Proportion of foreign direct investment in GDP | 0.001 (0.13) | ||||
Proportion of exported goods | 0.012 (1.11) | 0.020* (1.82) | 0.012 (1.18) | 0.012 (1.18) | |
Energy structure | -0.172** (-2.21) | -0.196** (-2.19) | -0.173** (-2.08) | -0.173** (-2.07) | |
Energy intensity | -0.082** (-2.23) | -0.026 (-1.34) | -0.030 (-1.57) | -0.030 (-1.57) | |
Degree of industrial deepening | 0.975** (2.36) | 0.403 (1.12) | 0.343 (0.90) | 0.345 (0.90) | |
Skill improvement | -0.234 (-1.29) | -0.197 (-1.11) | -0.219 (-1.22) | ||
Time fixed effect | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
Country fixed effect | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
Observations | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 | |
R2 | 0.962 | 0.963 | 0.961 | 0.961 |
Note: The numbers in parentheses are the t-values of robust clustering; *, **, and *** are significant at levels of 0.1, 0.05, and 0.01, respectively. |
We thank the reviewers for their valuable comments on earlier drafts of this manuscript that helped us improve its quality.
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