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Journal of Resources and Ecology >

2023 , Vol. 14 >Issue 2: 239 - 251

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2023.02.003

Tourism Resources and Ecotourism

Multi-scenario Analysis and the Construction of the Revitalization Model of Green Development in Tourism Traditional Villages

  • LIU Yaru , 1, 2 ,
  • TANG Chengcai , 1, 2, * ,
  • WAN Ziwei 3
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  • 1. School of Tourism Sciences, Beijing International Studies University, Beijing 100024, China
  • 2. Research Center of Beijing Tourism Development, Beijing 100024, China
  • 3. College of Tourism and Service Management, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China
*TANG Chengcai, E-mail:

LIU Yaru, E-mail:

Received date: 2022-01-28

  Accepted date: 2022-04-12

  Online published: 2022-07-20

Supported by

The Beijing Social Science Foundation of China(22GLB036)

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Abstract

Implementing the concept of green development would help the tourism traditional villages to solve problems such as the deterioration of the ecological environment, the changing of traditional culture, the loss of original landscape, and others. Taking the six tourism traditional villages in Beijing as a case study, this study explored the best green scenario by considering the perceptions of stakeholders and constructed the green revitalization mode of tourism traditional villages by the scenario analysis method and other methods. The results show three key aspects of tourism traditional village development scenarios. (1) From the perspective of future development scenarios, the specific characteristics and objective functions of the basic development scenario are different in the economic revitalization scenario and the green revitalization scenario, the economic revitalization scenario and the green revitalization scenario are different. (2) From the perspective of the stakeholders’ perceptions of different scenario plans, the future development of the case villages will change to varying degrees under the different scenario plans. However, no matter where the traditional villages are in the tourism life cycle, the green development scenario is the best choice. (3) Finally, this article constructed a five-in-one model of the green revitalization of tourism traditional villages with green economy as the key, traditional culture as the core, ecological civilization as the basis, village communities as the agent, and external policies as the guarantee. The research results aim to enrich the theory of green development and rural tourism, and provide theoretical reference and scientific guidance for the green revitalization of tourism traditional villages.

Key words： traditional villages; tourism; green development; rural revitalization; ecological civilization

Cite this article

LIU Yaru , TANG Chengcai , WAN Ziwei . Multi-scenario Analysis and the Construction of the Revitalization Model of Green Development in Tourism Traditional Villages[J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2023 , 14(2) : 239 -251 . DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2023.02.003

1 Introduction

Traditional villages have enormous historical, cultural, scientific, artistic, social and economic value, and are the precious heritage left by China’s agricultural civilization period (Tang et al., 2021a). As the carrier of historical witness and cultural inheritance, traditional villages have always been the key research fields of Chinese cultural geography, architecture, and arts (Li et al., 2018). Since the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People’s Republic of China and other government departments launched their investigations of traditional villages in China in 2012, by the end of 2022, their efforts produced six lists which include a total of 8171 villages designated as national traditional villages in China. In April 2014, the Regulations on Effectively Strengthening the Protection of Traditional Villages in China was officially implemented, which clearly pointed out that tourism development should be used to reinforce the protection of traditional villages. This has prompted the emergence of tourism traditional villages in China, that is, traditional villages with tourism as the leading industry (Lu et al., 2017). However, with the rapid development of tourism, the sustainable development of traditional villages has been seriously damaged, and they now face problems like the loss of the original landscape (Gao and Wu, 2017), drastic changes in the villagers’ lifestyle (Dewi, 2014), deterioration of the eco-environment (Zhu et al., 2021), the distortion of traditional culture (Mitchell, 2013), and others. Determining how to promote the transformation and upgrading of industry, cultural protection and inheritance, the construction of ecological civilization, and the progress of village communities has become an important scientific proposition for the sustainable development of tourism traditional villages, which urgently needs guidance from the academic community. Green development is the vital major pathway for realizing the sustainable development of tourism (Tang, 2014; Tang et al., 2017; Tang et al., 2022a). In recent years, scholars have been studying the sustainable development of tourism traditional villages from different perspectives, such as sociology (Ying and Zhou, 2007), culture (Crouch, 1992), ecology (Xu and Xue, 2011), geography (Xi et al., 2016) and others, but there are few studies focusing on the perspective of green development. Against the background of the rural revitalization strategy, the future green development of tourism traditional villages is complicated and uncertain. Additionally, the obstacles to development and the long-term goals of tourism traditional villages in different tourism life cycle stages are also different. These factors have led to uncertainties in the future trends of their green development. Therefore, it is vital to predict the future development of tourism traditional villages scientifically, with the aim of leading their green development.
A scenario refers to an assumption about the possible situation regarding some reasonable and uncertain events in the future (Zhang et al., 2021). Its biggest advantage is the ability to construct a variety of optional future development scenarios for scientific prediction by identifying the important factors that affect the research object and its future development trend, which facilitates both in-depth comparative analysis (Liu, 2013) and the subsequent formulation and implementation of policies (Zhu et al., 2016). In recent years, scenario analysis has been widely used in the field of tourism (Luo et al., 2020), and scholars have begun to pay attention to issues such as tourism carbon emissions (Li and Lyu, 2016), tourism destination evolution (Shen, 2013), tourism landscape evaluation (Chen, 2013), scenic spot evaluation and planning (Ye et al., 2014), and others. However, few people have applied the scenario analysis method in the field of tourism in traditional villages.
Based on this current research gap, this study took six tourism traditional villages in Beijing as the research objects, and combined qualitative and quantitative research methods such as the entropy weight analytic hierarchy process, scenario analysis and questionnaire surveys. Then, the key factors influencing the green development scenarios of tourism traditional villages were identified, and reasonable future scenarios for green development were set up, so as to hypothesize the objective function of their green development scenarios, with the help of a multi-scenario perception evaluation of various stakeholders. Finally, the changing characteristics of the future green development of tourism traditional villages were predicted under multiple scenarios, and the green revitalization pattern of tourism traditional villages was explored. The purpose of this research is to enrich the theory of green development in rural areas, and provide reference and scientific guidance for the sustainable development of tourism traditional villages.

2 Literature review

2.1 Tourism traditional villages

The traditional village is a new concept proposed in the new stage of rapid economic and social development in China (Hu et al., 2014). The word “tradition” refers to the thought, culture, morality, customs, art, system, and behavior passed down in Chinese history (Sun, 2017), which more appropriately reflects the continuity of the rural culture. In recent years, tourism has gradually become a way out for the revitalization of traditional villages (Zhou et al., 2021). Many traditional villages rely on their inherent natural scenery and cultural resources to develop tourism, so as to realize the economic development of the villages and to preserve and inherit their culture. As a result, various tourism traditional villages have formed (Zou et al., 2018), although the academic community has not yet developed a clear definition for the general recognition of tourism traditional villages. Some scholars have suggested the definition of tourism traditional villages based on the targeted development of landscape resources, more tourism activities, tourism as the leading industry, and a high proportion of non-agricultural income among residents (Vitasurya, 2016; Lu et al., 2017; Zou et al., 2020). There are other scholars who identify tourism traditional villages from three aspects, including the geographical boundaries of tourism development, the diversification of tourism participants and the stability of tourists, and the scale and system of tourism products (Zhou, 2019).
To sum up, this paper proposes that the tourism traditional village is a kind of rural tourism destination that effectively integrates its natural and cultural landscape resources, and focuses on the development of the tourism industry in the village area, so as to increase the economic income of the village.

2.2 Green development

As an important way to promote sustainable economic, resource, environmental and social development (Long et al., 2021), green development has become the important development trend in today’s world, and it has also been repeatedly mentioned in China’s policy documents (Liu et al., 2022). The concept of green development can be traced back to the spaceship economy theory proposed by Boulding in the 1960s. Subsequently, a series of related discussions on steady-state economy and green economy were successively put forward (Wang et al., 2018). Green development is a new term that has emerged with the expansion and improvement of the content of the green economy, and a new interpretation of the concepts of ecological civilization and sustainable development (Fu et al., 2017). Green development is an environmentally friendly and socially inclusive way of achieving economic growth. Its concept is a comprehensive and highly generalized concept of sustainable development, low-carbon economy, green economy, and ecological civilization (Ma, 2011; Tang et al., 2018). The essence of green development is to reduce the excessive consumption of resources, and to strengthen environmental protection and ecological governance, as well as to pursue comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development, with the ultimate aim of fundamentally solving the contradiction between economic growth and the environment (Sun et al., 2018).
Due to the sensitivity and fragility of rural natural resources and the ecological environment, green development has become the important issue in promoting rural development (Zhou et al., 2021). In September 2018, the Regulations on National Rural Revitalization Strategic Plan was officially implemented by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, emphasizing the need to adhere to the path of rural green development in which humans and nature coexist in harmony. Therefore, as one of the typical rural tourism destination types, tourism traditional villages should seize the opportunities for policy development, rationally develop and activate the natural and cultural resources of the villages, and reduce environmental pollution and ecological destruction on the premise that the ecological environment and resource carrying capacity are not damaged. In doing so, the villages would achieve the coordination and unity of the village’s economic, cultural, ecological and social benefits through the green development of tourism.

3 Research objects and research methods

3.1 Research objects and their tourism life cycle

Based on a previous review of relevant information, 18 traditional villages with developed tourism industries were selected from the list of traditional villages in Beijing for field research, and six of them (Xiniuyu Village, Huanglingxi Village, Malan Village, Changyucheng Village, Liugou Village, and Cuandixia Village) were finally chosen. Their selection was based on three criteria. 1) The selected villages have a wide geographical distribution and complete data acquisition. 2) There are obvious differences in the tourism development stages among the selected villages, which facilitates the determination of the tourism life cycle. 3) The tourism development of traditional villages in Beijing is at the forefront, and the selected villages are already facing the contradiction between tourism development and green development. For these reasons, this study takes these six traditional villages as the case villages since they are typical and representative. Referring to the scholarly research on the tourism life cycle (Butler, 1980; Lu, 1997), combined with the detailed information obtained from long-term field investigations and an established system for dividing the life cycle stages of rural tourism destinations (Wang et al., 2011), this study selected tourism resources, tourism markets, reception facilities and business models as the basis for judgments, and divided the research objects into three stages: exploration stage, fast-growing stage, and mature stage (see Table 1).
Table 1 The judgments of the tourism life cycle stages in the case study villages
Stage Village Tourism resources Tourism market Service facilities Business pattern
Exploration
stage		 Xiniuyu Z1 Orchard, terraced fields, forest
Z2 Traditional residential buildings		 Self-driving tourists in Beijing Only 5 homestay reception facilities Residential except for the village
Huanglingxi Z1 Forest
Z2 Traditional residential buildings, ancient temple
Z3 Jingxi Ancient Road, Revolutionary sites
Z4 Bangzi Opera, Bengbeng Opera		 Self-driving tourists in Beijing 5 homestay reception facilities; 1 car park; 1 public toilet Farmers
Fast-growing stage Malan Z1 Malan forest, waterfall, Zhaitang reservoir
Z2 Traditional residential buildings, ancient temple, theater stage
Z3 Many revolutionary sites
Z4 Story-telling in Beijing dialect with drum accompaniment, Beijing Opera, dance		 About 100000 tourists every year 7 homestay reception facilities; 1 car park; 3 public toilets Farmers and cooperation
Changyucheng Z1 Reservoir, forest
Z2 Traditional residential buildings, Yongxing temple, Zhenwang temple, Guandi temple
Z3 Ancient Great Wall ruins, the gate of ancient city, Urn City, Revolutionary sites
Z4 Bangzi Opera, The Lantern Festival parade, Jiuqu Yellow River Lantern		 About 70000 tourists every year 12 homestay reception facilities; 2 car parks; 2 public toilets Farmers
Mature stage Liugou Z1 Orchard, forest, Chinese herbal medicines
Z2 Traditional residential buildings, Chenghuang temple, theater stage
Z3 Ancient Great Wall ruins, the gate of ancient city, Urn City
Z4 Jiuqu Yellow River Lantern, land boat, Brazier Tofu Feast		 About 800000 tourists every year 127 homestay reception facilities; 4 car parks; 2 public toilets; 8 charging units for electric vehicles Farmers and cooperation
Cuandixia Z1 Orchard, terraced fields
Z2 Traditional residential buildings, Guandi temple, Niangniang temple, Wudao temple
Z3 Jingxi Ancient Road, Revolutionary sites
Z4 Playing the streamer, Bangzi Opera, Bengbeng Opera, Cuan yolk culture		 About 180000 tourists every year 54 homestay reception facilities; 2 car parks; 2 public toilets Government, management committee and farmers

Note: Z1 is the natural landscape; Z2 is the building facilities; Z3 is the ruins; and Z4 is the intangible cultural heritage.

As shown in Table 1, firstly, the tourism resources of Xiniuyu Village and Huanglingxi Village are relatively scarce. The structure of the tourism market is dominated by local tourists from Beijing, there are relatively few reception facilities, and the business model is dominated by the participation of migrants and a few villagers. Based on these characteristics and the life cycle characteristics of tourist destinations in the exploration and participation stages, Xiniuyu Village and Huanglingxi Village are determined to be in the exploration stage. Secondly, Malan Village and Changyucheng Village follow the development trend of rural tourism. The rapid development of the villages’ tourism resources has formed a relatively stable tourist reception scale, but the scale is relatively small. Furthermore, the tourism reception facilities have gradually improved, the participation of farmers has become more and more in-depth, and the chain of the tourism industry business has basically been formed. Therefore, combined with the development characteristics of the life cycle stage of the tourist destination, Malan Village and Changyucheng Village are determined to belong to the fast-growing stage. Lastly, Liugou Village and Cuandixia Village are relatively rich in tourism resources, and the development time of their tourism is relatively early. Their tourism reception facilities are relatively complete, which can meet the various needs of tourists. Their business model is relatively mature, and the village collective economy is stable. Therefore, combined with the characteristics of the life cycle stage of the tourist destination, the tourism development of Liugou Village and Cuandixia Village are determined to be in the mature stage.

3.2 Methods

3.2.1 Identification of key factors influencing the green development scenarios

The factors influencing the future green development of tourism traditional villages are complex. Firstly, through long-term field research on different types of traditional villages in China, as well as in-depth interviews with local governments, villagers, tourism enterprises, tourists and other stakeholders, and combined with existing studies (Wan, 2021; Lun et al., 2022), we have concluded that the future green development of tourism traditional villages can be preliminarily analyzed from five dimensions: economic development benefit, cultural protection and inheritance, village communities progress, ecological civilization construction and policy management support. Secondly, based on the Delphi method, 10 experts focused on the protection and development of traditional villages, sustainable tourism development and other related research fields were invited to form a consulting group, and the list of factors was repeatedly screened according to the feedback from the discussions of these experts. Finally, as shown in Fig. 1, we determined the index system of the key factors influencing the green development scenarios of tourism traditional villages.
Fig. 1 The key factors of the five scenario dimensions

3.2.2 The setting of the green development scenarios

On the basis of considering the possible combinations of all the above key influencing factors, the green development scenarios of the tourism traditional villages were set up. There are three scenarios of a base development scenario, an economic revitalization scenario and a green revitalization scenario. The specific characteristics of these different scenarios are shown in Table 2.
Table 2 The specific characteristics in the three future development scenarios of tourism traditional villages
Scenario dimensions Basic development scenario Economic revitalization scenario Green revitalization scenario
Economic development benefit Continue the current situation of the development of industry in traditional village, and do not undertake any tourism planning or development Expand the scale of tourism in traditional villages rapidly, and do not limit the number of tourists. Intensify the construction of tourism projects Scientifically control the scale of tourism development, appropriately limit the number of tourists, and construct tourism projects reasonably
Cultural protection and inheritance Maintain the current policies and methods of cultural protection and inheritance in the villages Strengthen the development of traditional culture, realize tourism utilization of all residential buildings, and promote the commercial development of cultural products Emphasize the concept of sustainable development, and improve cultural protection and inheritance policies. Make rational use of residential buildings, and regularly conduct intangible cultural heritage training
Village communities progress Continue the current situation of the population structure, social equity and living environment of traditional villages. The aging degree of the permanent population develops naturally, and there is the possibility that the population will be reduced due to rural-urban mobility. There is no big difference in the villagers’ consumption The modernization of the living environment has been strengthened to meet the needs of tourism, and the number of foreign tourism operators has not been limited. As a result, the overall consumption gap between villages has widened rapidly Optimize village living environment sustainably, attract young villagers to return and outsiders to migrate in, and control the number of foreign tourism operators reasonably. The aging of the permanent population is steadily declining. The whole consumption gap of the villager family is not big, and the general level is high
Ecological civilization construction The current policies and methods of ecological environment protection and governance of traditional villages will be continued, and no further optimization or adjustment will be made Make full use of the ecological resources of villages and ignore pollution discharge, environmental protection, ecological environment management, etc. Implement the concept of promoting ecological progress and respond to the call that “Clear waters and green mountains are as good as mountains of gold and silver”. Strictly control pollution discharge, and strengthen environmental protection and ecological environment governance
Policy management support Do not draw up and implement tourism development plans and spend less on environmental protection Formulate and implement a tourism development plan focusing on economic development, with little emphasis on green development and little expenditure on environmental protection Formulate and implement plans specifically designed for the green development of the tourism industry, and the government spends a lot on environmental protection

3.2.3 Construction of the objective function of the green development scenario

In order to quantitatively analyze the green development scenario of traditional tourism villages objectively and scientifically, this study established the scenario objective function. For the green development situation of tourism traditional villages, the scenario dimension parameters are mainly economic development benefit (ED), cultural protection and inheritance (CP), village communities progress (VC), ecological civilization construction (EC) and policy management support (PM).
$S=\alpha ED+\beta CP+\gamma VC+\delta EC+\varepsilon PM$
where, $\alpha,\ \beta,\ \gamma,\ \delta,\ \text{and}\ \varepsilon $ are the weight coefficients of the parameters of the scenario dimensions; ED, CP, VC, EC, PM are the evaluation score of the parameters.

3.2.4 The entropy weight analytic hierarchy process

The entropy weight analytic hierarchy process was used to determine the weights of the key factors influencing the scenario, as the basis for the establishment of the objective function of the development scenario in the tourism traditional villages. Firstly, through the consistency test, the subjective weight wj of each key influencing factor was obtained. Secondly, the range method was used to perform dimensionless processing on the objective data ${{\{{{x}_{ij}}\}}_{m\times n}}$ of the case villages to ensure the objectivity of the evaluation. Thirdly, the entropy method was used to determine the objective weights of the key influencing factors. Lastly, formula ${{\lambda }_{j}}=\frac{{{w}_{j}}{{\theta }_{j}}}{\sum\limits_{j=1}^{12}{{{w}_{j}}{{\theta }_{j}}}}$ was used to obtain the compound weight λj (Hou and Huang, 2010).

3.2.5 The questionnaire survey

This method was mainly used to obtain the perceptual evaluation results of different scenarios. Combined with the development status of the selected villages, six sets of questionnaires were designed for the six different case villages, that is, based on the key influencing factor index system of the development scenarios of tourism traditional villages, the corresponding questions were developed according to the specific characteristics of the different development scenarios. Drawing on the design idea of the Likert scale, the rating scale was divided into very suitable (10 points), moderately suitable (8 points), moderate (6 points), less suitable (4 points), and very unsuitable (2 points), and the investigators were invited to rate the different scenarios according to the facts.

3.3 Data sources and processing

(1) Determination of the composite weights of key influencing factors. Data sources were divided into subjective and objective empowerment data. 1) The subjective empowerment data came from expert scoring. Ten experts in related fields from Renmin University of China and other universities were invited to score the relative importance of the key factors influencing the green development scenarios of tourism traditional villages, and the subjective weight data were calculated by yaahp10.3. 2) The objective empowerment data came from field research. On the one hand, by visiting the village committees of the research objects, data were obtained on the annual income of the tourism industry, the annual per capita tourism income, the aging degree, the rate of domestic sewage treatment, the green coverage rate, the annual environmental protection expenditure, and the perfection of the tourism development plan. On the other hand, the remaining objective data that was required included the level of protection of material culture, the level of inheritance of intangible culture, the income gap of villagers, the level of supporting infrastructure, and the utilization rate of clean energy. With this as the goal, the questionnaire for villagers was designed and released in 2020. From October to November in 2020, the sample survey was conducted in the case villages on a household basis, and a total of 94 questionnaires were finally returned.
(2) The results of perception evaluation for different scenarios. The core stakeholders of traditional villages include village committees, villagers, tourists, tourism enterprises, and others (Feng, 2013). In addition, scholars provide intellectual support for the development of rural tourism, which has the functions of evaluation and correction (Wang et al., 2019). Therefore, this study selected these five types of subjects as the survey objects, in order to more comprehensively and systematically understand the rationality of the future development scenario selections of the case villages and to avoid the one-sidedness of the data. To start with, in-depth interviews were conducted with the leaders of the village committees of the case villages, and six valid questionnaires were collected. Then, the villagers and tourism enterprises operators were selected to carry out the questionnaire survey, and 24 valid questionnaires were collected. Next, in order to supplement the questionnaire data from tourists who are less affected by the epidemic, we sent questionnaires to tourists through online media in December 2021. A total of 86 valid questionnaires were obtained after excluding the ones about the tourism experiences of villages other than the six chosen for this case study. Finally, experts who have long been concerned about the research field of traditional villages in Beijing were invited to provide scores, and 24 valid questionnaires were collected. Due to the uneven distribution of valid questionnaires for each case village, we adopted the method of averaging to obtain the specific scoring data of each indicator.

4 Results and analyses

4.1 The weights of key factors in different scenarios

The specific weights of the key influencing factors under the three scenarios were determined (Table 3).
Table 3 The weights of key factors in the different development scenarios
Key factors Weight of basic development scenarios Weight of economic revitalization scenarios Weight of green revitalization scenarios
Subjective Objective Compound Subjective Objective Compound Subjective Objective Compound
Economic volume 0.0967 0.1019 0.1208 0.2162 0.1019 0.2692 0.0432 0.1019 0.0537
Economic benefits 0.1202 0.0663 0.0978 0.1989 0.0663 0.1613 0.0897 0.0663 0.0726
Material culture protection 0.1147 0.0660 0.0928 0.0821 0.0660 0.0662 0.1023 0.0660 0.0823
Intangible culture inheritance 0.1004 0.0333 0.0411 0.0434 0.0333 0.0177 0.1023 0.0333 0.0416
Population structure 0.0631 0.0582 0.0451 0.0562 0.0582 0.0400 0.0519 0.0582 0.0368
Social justice 0.0767 0.1577 0.1484 0.0360 0.1577 0.0694 0.0707 0.1577 0.1360
Human settled environment 0.0628 0.0582 0.0448 0.0518 0.0582 0.0369 0.0603 0.0582 0.0428
Resource utilization 0.0667 0.1058 0.0866 0.0709 0.1058 0.0917 0.0795 0.1058 0.1025
Pollution emission 0.0427 0.0262 0.0137 0.0389 0.0262 0.0124 0.0848 0.0262 0.0271
Environment protection 0.0587 0.1577 0.1136 0.0389 0.1577 0.0750 0.0848 0.1577 0.1631
Policy funding support 0.1183 0.0663 0.0963 0.1099 0.0663 0.0891 0.1047 0.0663 0.0847
Planning sophistication 0.0789 0.1023 0.0990 0.0570 0.1023 0.0713 0.1258 0.1023 0.1570
Accordingly, the weights of the key influencing factors under different scenarios were classified, and the weight coefficients for the five dimensions of each scenario were obtained, which were substituted into formula (1). Finally, the objective functions of the green development scenario of tourism traditional villages under the basic development scenario, the economic revitalization scenario and the green revitalization scenario were obtained.
$\begin{align} & SB=\text{0}\text{.2187}EDB+\text{0}\text{.1339}CPB+\text{0}\text{.2383}VCB+ \\ & \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \text{0}\text{.2138}ECB+\text{0}\text{.1953}PMB \\ \end{align}$
where, SB is the total evaluation score of basic development scenario; EDB, CPB, VCB, ECB, PMB are the evaluation score of the parameters under the basic development scenario.
$\begin{align} & SE=\text{0}\text{.4304}EDE+\text{0}\text{.0839}CPE+\text{0}\text{.1462}VCE+ \\ & \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \text{0}\text{.1791}ECE+\text{0}\text{.1604}PME \\ \end{align}$
where, SE is the total evaluation score of economic revitalization scenario; EDE, CPE, VCE, ECE, PME are the evaluation score of the parameters under the economic revitalization scenario.
$\begin{align} & SG=\text{0}\text{.1262}EDG+\text{0}\text{.1239}CPG+\text{0}\text{.2156}VCG+ \\ & \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \text{0}\text{.2937}ECG+\text{0}\text{.2416}PMG \\ \end{align}$
where, SG is the total evaluation score of green revitalization scenario; EDG, CPG, VCG, ECG, PMG are the evaluation score of the parameters under green revitalization scenario.

4.2 Evaluation of green development scenarios of the villages at different stages

Through processing of the data from the questionnaire survey, the evaluation scores of five dimensions of the different scenarios were obtained and substituted into the objective function of the corresponding development scenario, namely formulas (2)-(4). Then, we obtained the evaluation scores of each respective scenario scheme. The specific situations of the villages in each case are shown in Fig. 2. From the case evaluation results, the best development scenarios under different life cycle phases of the tourism traditional villages were the green development situation. This finding is in line with the concept put forward by Chinese President Xi Jinping that “Clear waters and green mountains are as good as mountains of gold and silver”, and reflects the strong will of stakeholders for the green revitalization of tourism traditional villages. In addition, there was heterogeneity in the scores of different scenarios for the villages, which was significantly related to the life cycle stage of the villages and the basic conditions of their green development.
Fig. 2 The results of different green development scenario evaluations in the six case villages

4.2.1 Case villages in the exploratory stage

The endowment of tourism resources in Xiniuyu Village is not outstanding, and the development time of its tourism is relatively late. Choosing the green revitalization scenario plan will help this village to effectively solve the energy consumption problem caused by its boutique homestay industry, continue the protection and inheritance of traditional culture, and make sustainable use of tourism resources, as well as rationally optimize the industrial structure of the village. In addition, the villagers mainly rely on the cultivation of Yulu fragrant pears, pepper, walnuts and other crops as the main source of economic income, and the overall income level is relatively low, so the stakeholders of Xiniuyu Village have a strong willingness to rapidly improve the economic benefits. However, the economic revitalization plan emphasizes not restricting the tourism utilization of traditional buildings, which is not applicable to Xiniuyu Village since it has a large amount of non-native investment and management. For the purpose of obtaining economic income, the young population will lease or sell their dwellings to the non-native tourism enterprises. At present, five traditional buildings have been renovated into boutique homestays by foreign operators. Encouraging this trend would make the village’s out-migration more serious, hinder the protection and inheritance of traditional culture, and disrupt the sustainable development of the village’s overall tourism industry.
Through the sustainable use of tourism resources under the scenario of green revitalization, Huanglingxi Village can greatly increase the income of its tourism industry, and maintain the per capita annual income of the villagers at a high level, thus improving the plight of the lagging economic development benefits and aiming to control the aging trend of the current resident population. With the continuous development of the village’s tourism industry, young migrant workers have returned to optimize the age structure of the permanent population. From the perspective of the dimension of the economic development benefit set by the three scenarios, the scenario proposed by the economic revitalization plan is more acceptable to the village stakeholders. In that scenario, the total income of tourism increases by 8% and the per capita tourism income increases by 8% annually. Although the economic revitalization scenario can rapidly improve the economic benefits of the village in a short period of time, this substantial growth is very likely to have a great decline. As a result, some tourism facilities built during the peak period will become idle, which will cause a big blow to the weak economic foundation of Huanglingxi Village.

4.2.2 Case villages in the fast-growing stage

According to the field research data, Malan Village is facing a serious problem of traditional culture inheritance. Under the assumptions of the green revitalization scenario, although the cultural resources of Malan Village cannot obtain more economic benefits in the short term, the village can reasonably use traditional buildings as tourism venues, improve the attitude of intangible cultural inheritance, and effectively avoid the disorder caused by tourism development. Then the village’s cultural protection and inheritance policy can be improved, and the continued expansion of the village’s awareness of the red cultural brand can be promoted. In addition, the Malan Village Committee established the Beijing Malan Folk Tourism Professional Cooperative in 2013. Although the tourism industry in the village has developed for nearly 10 years, the source of collective income in Malan Village is still made up of agriculture, forestry and animal husbandry. The driving effect of the tourism industry on the village’s collective economy is not obvious at present, but the stakeholders of the village do not show a strong willingness for the economic revitalization scenario, which indicates that the village is not ready for rapid tourism development. The influx of tourists would be bound to affect the comprehensive environment of the village, such as society, culture and ecology, and pose a threat to the sustainable development of tourism.
Changyucheng Village relies on the “pettitoes banquet” to establish a food tourism brand. However, the resource consumption of the catering industry is relatively large, so this village is a traditional village with lagging ecological civilization construction. Therefore, it is very necessary to implement a green revitalization scenario plan. It is expected that the unified requirement of self-employed catering households to use clean energy such as electricity and natural gas, and to strictly control the pollution of surface water and groundwater caused by waste water discharge would directly improve the benefits of ecological environmental governance. In addition, compared with the economic revitalization scenario, the scenario setting of ecological civilization construction in the basic development plan is also applicable to Changyucheng Village. This scenario maintains the current policies and methods for ecological environmental protection and governance and minimally interferes with the construction of the village’s ecological civilization. However, in the long run, this scenario may not be able to achieve the sustainable protection of the village’s ecological resources and natural environment.

4.2.3 Case villages in the mature stage

According to the developmental momentum of tourism of Liugou Village, formulating a practical green revitalization scenario plan will help to maintain the balance between the optimization of tourism economic benefits and the effective use of resources in the village. In terms of cultural protection and inheritance, the green revitalization scenario has the highest score, which can increase the importance of cultural inheritance among the village stakeholders and protect the traditional culture from damage. In addition, there are 127 folk reception households in the village at present, so the current competition among individual tourism operators in the village is fierce. The green revitalization scenario can narrow the gap between villagers’ income and consumption, as well as keep it at a high level, and it can also enhance villagers’ sense of well-being and social harmony in the village. On the other hand, the basic development scenario is the least popular option. Without reasonable planning of tourism development, the future economic growth of the village would be minimal, and the possibility of sustainable development of tourism resources such as the “tofu banquet” and Chinese herbal medicine, etc., would be further reduced.
The green revitalization scenario of Cuandixia Village has a much higher score than the other two scenarios, so it can be used as the leading plan for subsequent development. As a tourist traditional village in the mature stage, the rapid development of tourism has made the ecological environment of this village suffer from certain negative impacts. Hence, the long-term economic benefits brought by green revitalization are very important to this village. Under the assumptions of this scenario, Cuandixia Village would carry out reasonable tourism development. On the premise of not reducing the quality of the tourism landscape, Cuandixia Village would use traditional residential buildings for sustainable tourism, avoid any further reduction of the villagers’ living space, and optimize the tourism product system consisting of farmhouses and fruit and vegetable picking, so as to promote the renewed development of the tourism economy. In addition, the basic development scenario does not apply to the future development of this village. Under this scenario, Cuandixia Village would not implement tourism development planning. The disorderly development of tourism would seriously hinder the transformation and upgrading of the village’s tourism industry, and at the same time this would pose a threat to the abundant tourism resources of the village.

4.3 The green revitalization model in tourism traditional villages

Green development is the vital path for the transformation and breakthrough of the rural revitalization strategy (Zhang and Zhu, 2019). For tourism traditional villages, green development promotes the competitiveness and sustainable development of the tourism industry in the traditional village, and promotes the realization of the goal of industrial prosperity. Consequently, the most direct benefit transformation of the green development of tourism traditional villages is to optimize the ecological environment, to promote rural cleaning and greening actions, and to help achieve the goal of rural ecological livability. The quality of the villagers is closely related to the construction of rural ecological civilization (Zhang, 2018). Enhancing the ecological protection awareness and overall cultural quality of villagers can improve the sense of acquisition and identity among the villagers, and then promote the realization of rural civilization and effective governance goals. The green development of tourism can continue to provide employment opportunities, and consolidate the collective economy of the villages, so as to effectively improve the livelihoods of rural people and create conditions for realizing the goal of an affluent life. In general, rural revitalization is inseparable from the concept of green development. Therefore, in view of the future development direction of tourism traditional villages proposed in the green revitalization scenario, we proposed countermeasures from five aspects (Fig. 3).
Fig. 3 The model of green revitalization in tourism traditional villages
First, a green economy is the key to the green revitalization of tourism traditional villages. The green development of the tourism industry is directly and closely related to the green revitalization of villages. The realization of green output through green input in economic development can further provide a solid material foundation for the green development of the villages. Second, traditional culture is the core. Culture is the important resource for the development of tourism in traditional villages. It promotes the inheritance of excellent culture and protects the development of green resources, thereby providing an abundant resource supply for the green revitalization of the villages. Third, ecological civilization is the basis. Ecological civilization is the most direct manifestation of the green revitalization of tourism traditional villages, and it is also the ecological background. The tourism traditional villages should strengthen their protection, strictly define ecological red lines, and improve the level of ecological civilization construction (Han et al., 2022). Fourth, the social environment is the stakeholders. The social environment of the village is the carrier of the life and production of the stakeholders of the community, connecting the green development of traditional village production, life and ecology. Therefore, promoting the comprehensive development of the village society could effectively enhance the enthusiasm of community subjects for participating in green revitalization. Finally, green policies are the guarantee. The guidance of policies can provide the correct direction for the green development of traditional villages, and manage and control them in the process of village development, so as to ensure the smooth implementation of the green revitalization.

4.3.1 Promote the development of green economy

First, formulate a plan for green tourism development in a scientific way. Taking green development as the main line, relying on the sustainable development of resources, and ecological and environmental protection as the focus, we promote green tourism production methods, optimize the distribution of the spatial pattern of ecology-living-production, and strive to build green demonstration villages. Second, we need to make a rational layout of tourism formats. The suitability of terrain and landforms should be fully considered, and green tourism formats such as ecological farmland, the health care base and low-carbon homestay facilities should be cultivated according to local conditions. The scenario transformation of tourism formats should be cleverly designed to limit the number of tourism formats and realize the sustainable development of them. Third, develop green tourism products. Guided by the concept of green development, we should create green tourism products such as natural ecological vacations, rural dining, cultural and creative entertainment consumption, and ecological farming experiences, so as to optimize the system of village tourism products.

4.3.2 Promote the inheritance of culture

First, survey cultural resources in a systematic way. We should classify, grade and evaluate the existing cultural resources. Then, we can clarify their protection and utilization status, sort out and store all kinds of cultural resources, and formulate scientific and reasonable protection plans. In addition, enrich the ways of cultural inheritance. Through material culture exhibitions, production activity displays, life scene displays, folk culture displays and other cultural inheritance methods, we can enhance the pride and identity of community subjects for their rural culture, and cultivate a civilized rural style. What’s more, realize multi-channel cultural publicity. We should make full use of the Internet, newspapers and magazines, Red Booklet, TikTok and other media channels to actively promote rural culture and strengthen the cultural inheritance consciousness among stakeholders. Finally, establish a cultural heritage management mechanism. We should arrange cultural resource archives scientifically, update the intangible cultural heritage inheritors regularly, and assess cultural heritage performance dynamically, as well as achieve the standardized management of intangible cultural heritage.

4.3.3 Strengthen the construction of ecological civilization

Above all, we should emphasize the economical use of resources. On the premise of ensuring that the ecological civilization is not damaged, we could improve the efficiency of resource utilization, such as the realization of the utilization of waste resources and the designation of the green ecological landscape. Furthermore, we should control carbon emissions reasonably. By reducing the applied amounts of agricultural chemical fertilizers, pesticides and other chemical products, and advocating for the use of low-carbon organic fertilizers, the pollutant emissions would be controlled, thereby optimizing the energy use structure of farmers and increasing the utilization rate of low-carbon energy. In addition, we should guide tourists to achieve green consumption in the process of tourism (Tang et al., 2022b), control the emissions of tourism waste, and encourage low-carbon transportation (Tang et al., 2021b). Besides, we need pay attention to the restoration and protection of forest and farmland, enhance the carbon sink capacity, and exert the ecological service function of carbon sequestration. Lastly, we should strengthen the comprehensive improvement of the ecological environment. By formulating the green environmental protection regulations and clarifying reward and punishment mechanisms, we could restrain the behavior of stakeholders, and strictly implement rectification measures such as sewage treatment, manure treatment, garbage classification, and air environment monitoring.

4.3.4 Realize the comprehensive development of society

In the first place, we should improve the structure of green governance in rural areas. For example, a group of influential and professional villagers can be employed to play the leading role, and effectively solve the dilemma of green development, so as to improve the level of green management, enhance the civilized quality of villagers, and then promote the diversification of governance subjects and the rejuvenation of the governance system and a solid governance structure of the tourism traditional village. In addition, we should improve the living environment of traditional villages. Relying on policies such as beautiful countryside construction and promoting ecological civilization, we should renovate traditional residential buildings, upgrade the infrastructure of villages and improve the well-being of the villagers. What’s more, emphasize the dominant position of the villagers. To safeguard the economic interests of villagers, we need to set up green conventions and village regulations, and resolve all kinds of conflicts and disputes. This can make the relationships among villagers more harmonious, form green, honest and positive village folk customs, and realize that villagers can share in the achievements of green development in the joint construction.

4.3.5 Improve the policy guarantees

First, introduce policies on green development. Support the green development of the tourism traditional villages, and correctly guide the future development direction of the villages. Second, establish the green financing mechanism. We should provide special funds and preferential taxation policies to support the green development of tourism, increase investment costs in environmental and cultural protection, and encourage the development of the green economy. Third, build the team of rural tourism talents. Establish a cooperation mechanism with colleges, and complete the regular introduction plan of tourism talents, so as to strengthen the cultivation of tourism management, low-carbon technology application and other aspects. Fourth, strengthen green management training. Through indoor teaching, practical teaching, observation and learning, the training plan on green production and lifestyle and the protection and utilization of traditional culture should be regularly organized to fully attract community agents to participate in the green development of tourism.

5 Discussion

In the context of the rapid development of tourism, traditional villages, which are typical rural settlements, have taken tourism development as an effective way to protect and utilize their heritage (Xi et al., 2015). Under the global trend of green development and the implementation of China’s ecological civilization construction strategy, leading the tourism industry with the concept of green development and promoting the coordinated development of the village’s economy, society, culture, ecology and other aspects (Shen and Chou, 2022), this is the important starting point for realizing rural revitalization. Therefore, based on the concept of green development, this paper presents some thoughts on the future development of tourism traditional villages. Thus far, scholars have conducted some research on the green development of traditional villages, but most of the studies are qualitative analyses. For example, some scholars constructed a green development model of traditional villages based on the theory of “Clear waters and green mountains are as good as mountains of gold and silver” (Tang et al., 2019), and another studied rural green development in ethnic areas from the perspective of ecological anthropology (Hao, 2017).
This study used comprehensive qualitative and quantitative research methods, and took the entire development system of the traditional villages as the research object, and extended the previous research on scenario analysis to the field of the tourism industry in traditional villages. In addition, we constructed the key factors influencing the green development scenario of tourism traditional villages. This system further deepens the research on the green development of traditional villages, and can provide direction and theoretical inspiration for subsequent research. From the perspective of perception, this study explored the green development scenarios of tourism traditional villages through the perception evaluations of the five stakeholders of village committees, villagers, tourists, tourism enterprises and universities, and revealed the importance of green development for tourism traditional villages. Finally, a green revitalization model of tourism traditional village was proposed. Although this study has obtained some useful inspiration by taking the tourism traditional villages in different life cycle stages as examples, it is still limited by the statistical data and research scale, coupled with the small sample size of the case villages, which may have some impact on the research results. Therefore, it is necessary to further enrich the research objects and broaden the research perspective in the future.

6 Conclusions

Taking the six traditional villages in Beijing as a case study, this study explored the characteristics of their future changes through the perceptions of stakeholders and constructed the green revitalization mode of tourism traditional villages by means of the scenario analysis method and other methods. The purpose of this study is to enrich the theoretical achievements of rural tourism and green development, and at the same time to provide a reference and practical solutions for the realization of comprehensive revitalization strategies in rural areas. The results show three key aspects of tourism traditional village development scenarios. 1) From the perspective of green development scenarios, the specific characteristics and objective functions of the basic development scenario, economic revitalization scenario and green revitalization scenario are different. 2) From the perspective of the stakeholders’ perceptions of the different scenario plans, the future development of the case villages under different scenario plans will change to varying degrees. However, no matter where the traditional villages are in the tourism life cycle, the green revitalization scenario is the best choice. 3) Finally, this article constructed a five-in-one model for the green revitalization of tourism traditional villages with green economy as the key, traditional culture as the core, ecological civilization as the foundation, village communities as the agent, and external policies as the guarantee.

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