Journal of Resources and Ecology >
Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Water Suitability in the Upper and Middle Reaches of the Tao’er River Area
Received date: 2016-05-11
Online published: 2016-09-20
Supported by
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41201568, 41202134)
Due to the impact of climate change and human activities, the upper and middle reaches of the Tao’er River have become an ecologically sensitive area in Northeast China. It is important to evaluate the contributions of climate change and human activities to water suitability in the Tao’er River area. From the perspective of water and heat balance, the water suitability index (cr) was used to analyze the water suitability of the upper and middle reaches of the river. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall, moving t-test and cumulative anomaly methods were used to detect abrupt changes in Taonan station runoff from 1961 to 2012. Three inflexion years were detected. Thus, the entire time period was divided into four periods: 1961-1974, 1975-1983, 1984-1998, and 1999-2012. In order to estimate the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff, the slope change ratio of cumulative quantity (SCRCQ) was adopted. Finally, the contribution of climate change and human activity to cr was transformed from the contribution of climate change and human activity to runoff by the sensitivity coefficient method and SCRCQ method. The results showed that the water suitability index (cr) had a decreasing trend 1961-2012. Factors influencing cr, such as net radiation and runoff, also exhibited a decreasing trend, while precipitation exhibited an increasing trend over the past 52 years. The trends of cr, net radiation and runoff were obvious, which passed the Mann-kendall test of significance at α=0.05. Human activities were the main factors that affected runoff, although the degree of impact was different at different times. During the past 52 years, the biggest contributor to the change in cr was precipitation.
CHEN Sujing, LI Lijuan, LI Jiuyi, LIU Jiaxu . Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Water Suitability in the Upper and Middle Reaches of the Tao’er River Area[J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2016 , 7(5) : 378 -385 . DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2016.05.008
1 Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D et al. 1998. Crop evapotranspiration: guidelines for computing crop water requirements. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56, Rome, Italy.
2 Anderton S, Latron J, Gallart F. 2002. Sensitivity analysis and multi- response, multi-criteriaevaluationofaphysically based distributed model. Hydrological Processes , 16(2): 333-353.
3 Beven K. 1979. A sensitivity analysis of the Penman-Monteithactual evapotranspiration estimates. Journal of Hydrology , 44(3-4): 169-190.
4 Gong L B, Xu C Y, Chen D L, et al. 2006. Sensitivity of the Penman- Monteith reference evapotranspiration to key climatic variables in the Changjiang basin. Journal of Hydrology , 329(3-4): 620-629.
5 Hu S S, Zheng H X, Liu C M, et al. 2012. Assessing the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the water source area of Baiyangdian Lake. Acta Geographica Sinica , 67(1): 62-70. (in Chinese)
6 Jiang S S, Zhan C S, Jia Y W, et al. 2015. Streamflow changes of Weihe River in Guanzhong area in the past 50 years. Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science) , 51(1): 80-84. (in Chinese)
7 Joonghyeok H, Jaehyung Y, John R G, et al. 2015.Water resources response to climate and land-cover changes in a semi-arid watershed, New Mexico, USA. Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci. , 26(4): 463-474.
8 Li B, Li L J, Qin Y C, et al. 2011.Impacts of climate variability on streamflow in the upper and middle reaches of the Tao’er River based on the Budyko hypothesis. Resources Science , 33(1): 70-76. (in Chinese)
9 Li L J, Zhang L, Wang H, et al. 2007. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow from the wuding river basin in China. Hydrological Processes , 21: 3485-3491.
10 Liang L Q, Li L J, Zhang L, et al. 2008. Sensitivity of Penman-Monteith reference crop evapotranspiration in Tao’er river basin of Northeastern China. Chin. Geogra. Sci , 18(4): 340-347.
11 Liu C M. 1999. Analysis of water supply and demand in China in twenty- first Century: the study of ecological water conservancy. China Water Resources , 10: 18-20. (in Chinese)
12 Liu C M, Zhang D. 2011.Temporal and spatial change analysis of the sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration to meteorological influencing factors in China. ActaGeographicaSinica , 66(5): 579-588. (in Chinese)
13 Liu C M, Zhang X C. 2004. Causal analysis on actual water flow reduction in the mainstream of the YellowRiver. ActaGeographicaSinica , 59(3): 323-330. (in Chinese)
14 Meng D J, Mo X G. 2012. Asessing the effect of climate change on mean annual runoff in the Songhua River basin, China. Hydrological Process, 26: 1050-1061.
15 Shen S H, Zhang F M, Sheng Q. 2009. Spatio-temporal changes of wetness index in China from 1975 to 2004. Transactions of the CSAE , 25(1): 11-15. (in Chinese)
16 Stocker T F, Raible C C. 2005. Water cycle shifts gear. Nature , 434: 830- 832.
17 Sun L, Shen B Z, An G. 2003. A study of the variation and tendency of surface dry-and-wet state of northeast area in China. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science , 14(5): 542-552. (in Chinese)
18 Sun W G, Cheng B Y, Li R. 2009. Multitime scale correlations between runoff and regional climate variations in the source region of the Yellow River. Acta Geographica Sinica , 64(1): 117-127. (in Chinese)
19 Tang Q C. 1992. Recent tendency analysis of river discharge in the Tarim basin. Journal of Desert Research , 12(2): 15-20. (in Chinese)
20 Wang S J, Yan M, Yan Y X, et al. 2012a. Contribution of climate change and human activities to the changes in runoff increment in different sections of the Yellow river. Quaternary International , 282(12): 66-77.
21 Wang S J, Yan Y X, Yan M, et al. 2012b. Contribution of precipitation and human activities to the runoff change of the Huangfuchuan drainage basin: application of comparative method of the slope changing ratio of cumulative quantity. Acta Geographica Sinica , 67(3): 388-397. (in Chinese)
22 Wang Y J, Wang S J, Su T. 2015. Contribution of precipitation and human activities to runoff change in the Songhua River basin. Journal of Natural Resources , 30(2): 304-314. (in Chinese)
23 Wu S H, Yin Y H, Zheng D, et al. 2005. Study on the dry-and-wet condition of the land surface in China during the last 30 years. Science in China Ser. D , 35(3): 276-283. (in Chinese)
24 Yin Y H, Wu S H, Zheng D, et al. 2005. Regional differences of dry and wet condition of China during the last 30 years. Cinese Science Bulletin ,50(15): 1636-1642. (in Chinese)
25 Zhang J Y, Wang G Q, He R M, et al. 2009. Variation trends of runoffs in the Middle Yellow River basin and its response to climate change. Advances in Water Science , 20(02): 153-158. (in Chinese)
26 Zhao J F, Guo J P, Xu J W, et al. 2010. Trends of Chinese dry-wet condition based on wetness index. Transactions of the CSAE , 26(8): 18-24. (in Chinese)
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |