Assessment of Economic Damage Risks from Typhoon Disasters in Guangdong, China

  • 1 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received date: 2012-02-15

  Revised date: 2012-05-18

  Online published: 2012-06-30

Supported by

Key Project of Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-YW-Q03-01), National Key Technology R&D Program (Grant No. 2008BAK50B06 and 2008BAK50B05).


Guangdong is a developed province in China, but suffers from frequent typhoon disasters which cause great economic loss. Quantitative regional risk assessment of typhoon disasters is important for disaster prevention and mitigation. According to direct economic loss and typhoon intensity information, we established a typhoon disaster loss rate curve using data from 1954 to 2008. Based on GIS spatial module, the economic vulnerabilities of different intensity typhoons were calculated for 98 counties in Guangdong Province. Different intensity typhoon landing frequencies in Guangdong were also calculated, and used to indicate typhoon disaster probability. A risk assessment model was established to assess economic loss risk under different intensity typhoons in Guangdong. The results show that economic loss risk caused by typhoon is more than 10 thousand million CNY; according to typhoon intensity grade, economic risk is up to 10.467, 14.429, 7.753 and 13.591 thousand million CNY for slight, light, medium and severe typhoons, respectively. The Pearl River Delta is the highest risk region, especially Guangzhou, Dongguan, Shenzhen, Zhongshan and Zhuhai. Risk value decreases from Pearl River coastal outfall to the inland in a radial pattern. Inland areas far from coastal counties have lower risk, and the risk value is less than 50 million CNY. When typhoon intensity increases from slight to medium, the risk in western is higher than in eastern parts, but when typhoons become to severe, the risk value in eastern Guangdong part is higher than in the west.

Cite this article

YIN Jie, WU Shaohong, DAI Erfu . Assessment of Economic Damage Risks from Typhoon Disasters in Guangdong, China[J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2012 , 3(2) : 144 -150 . DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2012.02.006


ADB (Asian Development Bank). 2002. Asian environment outlook: naturalresources management and the environment. Manila: ADB, 44.
Alcóntara-Ayala I. 2002. Geomorphology, natural hazards, vulnerability andprevention of natural disasters in developing countries. Geomorphology,47: 107-124.
Blaikei P, T Cannon, I Davis, et al. 1994. At Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and Disasters, Routledge, London.
Chen X. 2007. Analysis of economic loss variation of typhoon disaster in Fujian Province. Journal of Putian University, 14(2):97-102. (in Chinese)
CMA-STI. 2012.
Ding Y, Shi P J. 2002. Fuzzy risk assessment model of typhoon hazard. Journal of Natural Disasters, 11(1): 34-43. (in Chinese)
Emanuel K, Sundararajan R, Williams J. 2008. Hurricanes and globalwarming: Results from down scaling IPCC AR4 simulations. American Meteorological Society, (89): 347-367.
Feng L H, Luo G Y. 2009. Analysis on fuzzy risk of landfall typhoon in Zhejiang Province of China. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation,3258-3266.
Gao Q H, et al. 2005. Natural disaster risk and regional safety analysis in China. China Meteorological Press. Beijing. (in Chinese)
Huang Z G, D V Rosowsky, P R Sparks. 2001. Long-term hurricane riskassessment and expected damage to residential structures. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 239-249.
Kleinen J. 2007. Historical perspectives on typhoons and tropical storms inthe natural and socio-economic system of Nam Dinh (Vietnam). Journalof Asian Earth Sciences, (29): 523-531.
Li L F, Wang J F, Wang CY. 2005. Typhoon insurance pricing with spatialdecision support tools. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 19 (3): 363-384.
Li L F, Wang J F, Leung H, et al. 2010. Assessment of catastrophic riskusing Bayesian network constructed from domain knowledge and spatialdata. Risk Analysis, 30(7): 1157-1175.
Liu S J, Zhang J H, He Z W. 2010. Danger assessment of typhoon hazardbased on extension method. Yunnan Geographic Environment Research,22(4): 100-104. (in Chinese)
Liu Y, Wu S H, Xu Z C, et al. 2011. Methodology for assessment andclassification of natural disaster risk: A case study on seismic disaster in Shanxi Province. Geographical Research, 30(2): 195-208. (in Chinese)
Meng Y, Matsui M, Hibi K. 1997. A numerical study of the wind field ina typhoon boundary layer. Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, 437-448.
Ou J P, Duan Z D, Chang L. 2002. Typhoon risk analysis for key coastalcities in southeast China. Journal of Natural Disasters, 11(4): 9-17. (in Chinese)
Sales R F M. 2009. Vulnerability and adaptation of coastal communities toclimate variability and sea-level rise: Their implications for integratedcoastal management in Cavite City, Philippines. Ocean & Coastal Management, (52): 395- 404.
Shi P J, Du J, Ji M X, et al. 2006. Urban risk assessment research of majornatural disasters in China. Advance in Earth Science. 21(2): 170-177. (in Chinese)
Shi Y, Xu S Y, Shi C, et al. 2009. A review on development of vulnerabilityassessment of floods. Progress in Geography, 28(1): 41-46. (in Chinese)
Su G W, Gao Q H. 2003. The elements for analyzing natural disaster risk. Earth Science Frontiers, 10: 272-279. (in Chinese)
Sun J H, Zhao S X. 2000. Diagnoses and simulations of typhoon (Tim) landing and producing heavy rainfall in China. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 24(2): 223-237. (in Chinese)
Sun L, Shi C. 2007. Progress in vulnerability assessment of natural disastersin coastal cities. Journal of Catastrophology, 22(1): 102-105. (in Chinese)
Sun W, Liu S J, Tian G H, et al. 2008. Fatalness evaluation of typhoondisasters in Hainan island. Journal of Meteorological Research and Application, 29(4): 7-9. (in Chinese)
UNDP/BCPR. 2004. Reducing disaster risk: A challenge for development. United Nations Development Program, Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, 161.
Wang H J, Lang X M, Fan K, et al. 2006a. Real-time climate predictionexperiment for the typhoon frequency in the western north Pacificfor 2006. Climatic and Environmental Research, 11(2): 133-137. (in Chinese)
Wang J A, Shi P J, Wang P. 2006b. Spatial-temporal pattern of naturaldisasters in China. Beijing: Science Press. (in Chinese)
Xu Z C, Wu S H, Dai E F, et al. 2011. Quantitative assessment of seismicmortality risks in China. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2(1): 83-90.
Yang H J, Li N, Lei Y. 2007. Features of typhoon in southeast coastalregions of China in the recent 54 years. Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,27(4): 413-418. (in Chinese)
Yin Y Z, M Gemmer, Luo Y, et al. 2010. Tropical cyclones and heavyrainfall in Fujian Province, China. Quaternary International, (226):122-128.
Yin J. 2011. Study on the risk assessment of typhoon strom tide in Chinacoastal area. Shanghai: East China Normal University. (in Chinese)
Yin Z E, Bao L J, Yin J. 2011. GIS-based study on vulnerability to rainstorminundation in Pudong of Shanghai. Journal of Natural Disasters, 20(2):29-35. (in Chinese)
Yoshida M, Yamamoto M, Takagi K, et al. 2008. Prediction of typhoon windby level 2.5 closure model. Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, 2104-2120.
Zeng C, Yi A M, Li X J, et al. 2007. Characteristics of tropical cycloneslanded in Guangdong and its relationship with subtropical high. Meteorological Science and Technology, 35(1): 36-39. (in Chinese)
Zhou J H. 2004. Research on the integrated risk assessment of typhoondisaster in China. Beijing: Beijing Normal University. (in Chinese)
Zhou J H, Shi P J, Chen X W. 2002. Spatio-temporal variability of tropicalcyclone activities in the western North Pacific from 1949 to 1999.
Journal of Natural Disasters, 11(3):44-49. (in Chinese)
Zhu L F, Yin K L, Zhang L, et al. 2002. Risk analysis system of geo-hazardsby using GIS technique. Journal of Engineering Geology. 10(4): 428-433. (in Chinese)