The potential impact of climate change on water eutrophication and ecosystems is of great international and domestic concern.This study aims to analyze the impact of climate change on algal bloom problems in large river systems by utilizing a parametric river eutrophication model that is established using indicators of climate change, hydrological regimes, water quality and nutrient loads.Specifically, the developed parametric modeling method is based on statistical and simulation methods including:Multiple Linear Regressions (MLR), Multiple Non-linear Regressions (MNR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based on Back-propagation (BP) algorithms, as well as an integrated river eutrophication model.The developed model was applied to Han River, which is one of the major sources of fresh water in Wuhan City, China.The impacts of climate change and human activities on the occurrence mechanisms of algal blooms in the Han River were identified by scenarios analysis.The individual assessment result indicates that the waste nutrient P load has the most significant impact (14.82%), followed by the flow rate (5.56%) and then by temperature (3.7%).For the integrated climate change assessment, it has been found that there is a significant impact (20.37%) when waste load increases and flow rate decreases at the same time.This is followed by increase of both waste load and temperature (15.82%).If temperature increases but flow rate decreases, the impact is predicted to be 11.11%.The final results point to human activities as a significant influence on water quality and the Han River ecosystem, temperature is also one of the main factors which directly contribute to algal blooms in Han River.The results in present study are expected to give theoretical supports for further relevant research on water eutrophication.
XIA Rui, CHEN Zhi, ZHOU Yun
. Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Algal Blooms by a Parametric Modeling Study in Han River[J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2012
, 3(3)
: 209
-219
.
DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2012.03.003
Backer L C. 2002. Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs):Developing a public health response. Lake and Reservoir Management,18(1):20-31.
Bennett E M, S R Carpenter, N F Caraco. 2001. Human impact on erodable phosphorus and eutrophication:A global perspective. BioScience, 51(3):227-234.
Delpla I, A V Jung, E Baures. 2009. Impacts of climate change on surface water quality in relation to drinking water production. Environment International. doi:10. 1016/j. envint. 2009. 07. 001
Diersing N. 2009. Phytoplankton blooms:The basics. Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary, Key West, Florida, USA, 2.
Dillon P J, F H Rigler. 1974. The phosphorus-chlorophyll relationship in lakes. Limnology and Oceanography, 17:250-254.
Gamini H. 1997. Freshwater algal blooms and their control:Comparison of the European and Australian Experience. Environmental Management, 51(2):217-227.
IPCC. 1996. Climate change 1995. The Science of Climate Change Technical Report. Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press.
IPCC. 2000. Summary for policymakers, emissions scenarios. A Special Report of IPCC Working Group III. Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press.
IPCC. 2001. Contribution of working group III to the 3rd assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press.
IPCC. 2007. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press.
Li S Y, Gu S, Liu W Z, Han H Y, Zhang Q F. 2008. Water quality in relation to land use and land cover in the upper Han River Basin, China. Catena,75:216-222
Lu D Y, Liu P G, Fan T Y. 2000. Water bloom in downstream of Han River. Research of Environmental Sciences, 13(2):29-31.
Lu G B, Wang J, Wang H J, Xia Z Q. 2009. Impacts of human activities on the flow regime of the Hanjiang River. Research of Environmental Sciences, 15(1):12-13.
Middelkoop H, K Daamen, D Gellens, et al. 2001. Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources management in Rhine basin. Climatic Change, 49:105-128.
Rumelhart D E, G E Hinton, R J Williams. 1986. Learning representations by back-propagating error. Nature, 323:533-536.
Sharpley A, R Sheffield. 2001. Phosphorus management:bridging the interface between agriculture and environment. USDA/EPA Livestock Environmental Stewardship Handbook, 42.
Thiang, H Khoswanto, R Pangaldus. 2009. Artificial neural network with steepest descent backpropagation training algorithm for modeling inverse kinematics of manipulator. World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, 60:530-533.
Vollenweider R A, P J Dillon. 1974. The application of the phosphorus loading concept to eutrophication research. Natl. Res. Counc. Can. NRCC 13690. CCIW, Burlington, Ontraio. 42.
Vollenweider R A. 1975. Input-output models with special reference to the phosphours loading concept in limnology. Schweizeriche Zeitschrit fur Hydrologie, 37:53-83.
Xia J, Cheng S B, Hao X P, et al. 2010. Potential impacts and challenges of climate change on water quality and ecosystem:Case studies in representative rivers in China. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 1(1):31-35.
Xie P, Xia J, Dou M. 2004. Research into the effects of the middle route of China's south-to-north water transfer project on water bloom in the middle downstream of Han River and the countermeasures part I:an analysis of the key factors generating water bloom in Hanjiang River. Natural Resources, 19(5):545-549.
Zhang Y H, Hu H Y, Wu L. 2006. Wuhan section of the Han River water bloom analysis and prevention recommended the formation of eutrophication. Environmental Science and Technology, 3(6):56-58.
Zhu Y P, Zhang H P, Chen L. 2008. Influence of the South-North Water Diversion Project and the mitigation projects on the water quality of Han River. Science of the Total Environment, 406(1-2):57-68.
