Projection of IPCC AR4 Coupled Climate Models for Multitimescale Temperature Variation in Yunnan: A Case Study on Southwest Yunnan from 1960 to 2050

  • 1. School of Urban Management and Resources Environment, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, Kunming 650221, China;
    2. School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China

Received date: 2012-02-25

  Revised date: 2012-03-18

  Online published: 2012-03-30

Supported by

National Natural Science Foundation of China (40901050), National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2012CB955903), Scientific Research Fund Project of Yunnan Provincial Department of Education (No. 09Y0284, “Technology Research of Adaptation and Mitigation to Yunnan Climate Change”)


Based on daily mean temperature records from 1961 to 2007 at 20 meteorological sites in Southwest Yunnan, and the surface temperature simulated by IPCC AR4 Climate Models, a quantitative examination was undertaken into the characteristics of multi-timescale temperature (AMT, DMT and WMT) variation in Southwest Yunnan. The simulation abilities of the models were also evaluated with the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) and Mann-Kendal test statistic methods. Temperatures show remarkable increasing trend from 1961 to 2007, with the Mann-Kendall test statistic passing 95% confidence verification. The result of the NRMSE analysis shows that the simulated temperature anomaly variations are more similar to observed ones especially for AMT and DMT, and the projected result (anomalies) of IPCC AR4 climate models can be used for predicting the trends in multi-timescale temperature variation in Southwest Yunnan in the next 40 years under the three emission scenarios, which has better simulating effect on AMT and DMT than WMT. Over the next 40 years the temperature will continue to rise, with annual mean temperature showing a more remarkable rising trend than that of the dry and wet seasons. Temperature anomalies exhibit different increasing rates under different emission scenarios: During the 2020s the rising rates of multi-timescale temperature anomalies in a high greenhouse gases emissions scenario (SRESA2) are smaller than those under a low emission scenario (SRESB1). Except that, the rate of increase in temperature anomalies are the highest in the intermediate emissions scenario (SRESA1B), followed by those in SRESA2, and those in low emissions scenario (SRESB1) are the lowest. The reason of different simulating effects on WMT from AMT and DMT was also discussed.

Cite this article

LI Shaojuan, HUANG Ying, TU La . Projection of IPCC AR4 Coupled Climate Models for Multitimescale Temperature Variation in Yunnan: A Case Study on Southwest Yunnan from 1960 to 2050[J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2012 , 3(1) : 33 -42 . DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2012.01.006


Cheng J G, Xie M E. 2008. The Analysis of Regional Climate Change Features over Yunnan in Recent 50 Years. Progress in Geography, 27(5): 19-26. (in Chinese)
Giorgi F, L O Mearns. 2002. Calculation of average, uncertainty range and reliability of regional climate changes from AOGCM simulations via the ‘Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA)’ method. Journal of Climate, 15(10):1141-1158.
Giorgi F, L O Mearns. 2003. Probability of regional climate change based on the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) method. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(12):1629, doi: 10.1029/2003GL017130
Hu J M, He D M, Wu S H, et al. 2010. Regional Variation of Annual Precipitation along the Tropic of Cancer in Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region. Acta Geographica Sinica, 65(3):281-292. (in Chinese)
I Campbell. 2007. Perceptions, data, and river management: lessons from the Mekong River. Water Resources Research, 43, W02407.
Jiang X W, Li Y Q. 2010. The Spatio-temporal Variation of Winter Climate Anomalies in Southwestern China and the Possible Influencing Factors.Acta Geographica Sinica, 65(11):1325-1335. (in Chinese)
Jiang Z H, Chen W L, Song J, et al. 2009. Projection and evaluation of the precipitation extremes indices over China based on seven IPCC AR4 coupled climate models. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 33 (1): 109-120. (in Chinese)
Lei S H, Liu J N, Gu Y, et al. 2010. Analysis the effect of the hydropower station building of Lancangjiang main stream on the change of runoff at leave country section. Journal of Yunnan University (Natural Sciences Edition), 32(1): 58-62. (in Chinese)
Li S J, He D M, Zhang Y P. 2007. The variation and regional differences of precipitation in Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region. Chinese Science Bulletin, 52(s): 51-63.
Li Z S, He Y Q, Xin H J, et al. 2010. Spatio-temporal Variations of Temperature and Precipitation in Mts.Hengduan Region during 1960- 2008. Acta Geographica Sinica, 65(5): 563-579. (in Chinese)
Li S, He D. 2008. Water level response to hydropower development in the Upper Mekong River. AMBIO, Vol.37(3): 171-177.
Liu B, Xiao Z N. 2010. Observed (1951-2008) and Projected (2010-2099) Climate Change in the Lancang River Basin. Advances in Climate Change Research, 6(3): 170-174. (in Chinese)
Liu M, Jiang Z H. 2009. Simulation Ability Evaluation of Surface Temperature and Precipitation by Thirteen IPCC AR4 Coupled Climate Models in China during 1961-2000. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, 32(2): 256-268. (in Chinese)
Liu M. 2008. Evaluation and Projection of surface air temperature in China by IPCCAR4 Coupled climate models and downscaling methods. Master Degree diss., Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology. (in Chinese)
Lu X X, R Y Siew. 2006. Water discharge and sediment flux changes over the past decades in the lower Mekong River: possible impacts of the Chinese dams. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 10, 181-195.
Mo W Q, Li W B, Xu Y L, et al. 2007. Modelling Air Temperature and Precipitation Variability over China. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni, 46(5): 104-108. (in Chinese)
Shi X H, Xu X D, Xie L A. 2006. Reliability analysis of anomalies of NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis wind speed and surface temperature in climate change research in China. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 64(6): 709-722. (in Chinese)
Shi X Y, Xu X D, Xu Y, et al. 2005. Comparison of Temperature between Six Hundreds Stations in China and Output of IPCC Models. Meteorological Monthly, 31(7): 49-53.
Sun Y, Ding Y H. 2008. Validation of IPCC AR4 climate models in simulating interdecadal change of East Asian summer monsoon. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 66(5): 765-780. (in Chinese)
Tao Y, He H, He Q, et al. 2010. Evolutional Characteristics of Utilizable Precipitation over Yunnan Province from 1961 to 2006. Advances in Climate Change Research, 6(1):8-14. (in Chinese)
Tian Z, Feng L, Chen B D, et al. 2008. The Application Progress of Scenario in Climate Change Research. Plateau Meteorology, 28(s): 16- 21. (in Chinese)
Wan J. 2008. Projection and evaluation of the extreme temperature events simulation over China. PhD diss., Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology. (in Chinese)
Wang B, Li Y Q. 2010. Relationship Analysis between South Branch Trough and Severe Drought of Southwest China during Autumm and Winter 2009/2010. Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research, 30(4) :26-35. (in Chinese)
Wang F, Ge Q S, Chen B Q, et al. 2009. Uncertainties of Temperature Observation Data in IPCC Assessment Report. Acta Geographica Sinica, 64(7): 828-838. (in Chinese)
Xu C H, Luo Y, Xu Y, et al. 2010. Simulation and Prediction of the Drought Variations in China by Multi-Model Ensemble. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 32(5): 867-874. (in Chinese)
Xu X, Xiao T G, Ma S H, et al. 2010. The Features Analysis on divisions of season in Southwest China. Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research, 30(1): 35-40. (in Chinese)
Yin W Y, Tian W S, Ju J H, et al. 2010. Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Temperatures on Different Terrains of Southwest China. Advances in Climate Change Research, 06(6): 429-435. (in Chinese)
Xu Y, Gao X J, F Giorgi. 2010. Upgrades to the REA method for producing probabilistic climate change projections. Climate Research, 2010, 12, doi:10.3354/cr00835.
Zhang X Z, Zhang X P. 2010. Characteristic analysis of atmospheric circulation for extreme heavy drought in Yunnan Province in autumn of 2009. Journal of Natural Disasters, 19(6): 138-146. (in Chinese)
Zheng J M, Ren J Z, Zhang W C, et al. 2010. Analysis on Variation Characteristics of Temperature and Rainfall in Yunnan in the Last 100 Years. Journal of Catastrophology, 25(3):24-31. (in Chinese)
Zhou Y, Lu X X, et al. 2011. Assessment of climate change impact on Yunnan. Bejing: China Meteorological Press. (in Chinese)