EN中文

Journal of Resources and Ecology >

2010 , Vol. 1 >Issue 2: 145 - 154

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1674-764x.2010.02.006

Articles

Can China Realize CO2 Mitigation Target toward 2020?

Expand
  • 1 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    2 Research Center on Fictitious Economy & Data Science, CAS, Beijing 100190, China

Received date: 2010-03-11

  Revised date: 2010-05-31

  Online published: 2010-06-30

Fold

Abstract

This paper presents an energy-economic-environment model based on the dynamic CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model approach. A policy simulation was conducted to determine the potential and policy choices for China in order to reduce CO2 emissions towards 2020. The results show that carbon tax and investment adjustments are effective measures to alleviate CO2 emission increases, but can lead to negative impacts on GDP. Technological improvements can have positive impacts on GDP in regard to CO2 abatement. Under high technological improvement with a mid-level carbon tax scenario, and low technological improvement with mid-level carbon tax and mid-level investment adjustment scenario, China’s CO2 emissions in 2020 will reach 9.27-9.55 billion tons and CO2 emissions intensity will decline by 0.138-0.143 ton (103 Yuan RMB)-1. According to the mitigation target proclaimed by Chinese government, China should reduce CO2 emissions intensity from 0.241 to 0.145 t (103 Yuan RMB)-1 from 2005 to 2020 (in constant 2007 RMB). However, it is not easy to realize a 40% mitigation target because increasing energy efficiency at a faster rate than the normal rate of technological improvement means greater costs for investment in equipment renewal and depreciation before 2020. Moreover, in future, energy supply constraints may have positive effects on the mitigation of CO2 emissions. China needs to devote major efforts to developing low carbon technologies, in addition, international community should provide and increase support to China in this area.

Key words： dynamic CGE model; energy-economic-environment model; CO2 mitigation target; potential and policy choices for CO2 mitigation; China

Cite this article

SHI Min-Jun, LI Na, ZHOU Cheng-Lv, YUAN Yong-Na, MA Guo-Xia . Can China Realize CO2 Mitigation Target toward 2020?[J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2010 , 1(2) : 145 -154 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-764x.2010.02.006

References

Berk M M, M G den Elzen. 2001. Options for differentiation of future commitments in climate policy: how to realize timely participation to meet stringent climate goals? Climate Policy, 1(4): 465–480.

Cai W, Wang C, Chen J, Wang K, Zhang Y, Lu X. 2008. Comparison of CO2 emission scenarios and mitigation opportunities in China’s five sectors in 2020. Energy Policy, 36: 1181–1194.

Cao J, M Ho, D Jorgenson. 2005. China Clear Skies: the impact of market instruments for environmental policy in China, CCICED Research Report, Beijing, China.

Cheng W, Gao P, Hei J. 2004.Impact of carbon mitigation on China’s energy system using China MARKAL-MACRO model. Journal of Tsinghua University (Science and Technology), 44(3): 342–346.

Dimaranan B V, R A McDougall. 2006. Global Trade, Assistance, and Production: The GTAP 6 Data Base, Center for Global Trade Analysis. Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana.

DRC. 2005. The Prospects of China’s Economic Growth. Decision and Information, 2005, (8): 4.

EIA (Energy Information Administration). 2008. International Energy Outlook 2008. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html.

Ellerman A D, H D Jacoby, A Decaux. 1998. The Effects on Developing Countries of the Kyoto Protocol and CO2 Emission Trading. MIT Global Change Joint Program Report No. 41.

Fisher-Vanden K, M Ho. 2007. How do market reforms affect China’s responsiveness to environmental policy? Journal of Development Economics, 82(1): 200–233.

Gang A, K Kainou, T Pulles. 2006. IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/index.html

Gao P, Cheng W, Hei J. 2004. Marginal carbon abatement cost in China. Journal of Tsinghua University (Science and Technology), 44(9): 1192–1195.

Garbaccio R, M Ho, D Jorgenson. 1999. Controlling carbon emissions in China. Environment and Development Economics, 4(4): 493–518.

He J H. 2001. A Long-term Model to Forecast Population and Economy in China. Quantitative and Technical Economics Research, (09): 40–44.

He J, Shen K, Xu S. 2002. A CGE Model for Carbon Tax and CO2 Emission Reduction Analysis. Quantitative and Technical Economics Research, (10): 39–47．

Hu X L, Jiang K J. 2001. Evaluation of Technology and Countermeasure for Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in China. Beijing: China Environmental Science Press.

Jiang K, Hu X, Zhuang X, Liu Q, Zhu S. 2008. China’s Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios in 2050. Advance in Climate Change Research, 5(4): 296–302.

Jiang T S. 2003.Economic instruments of pollution control in an imperfect world-theory and implication for carbon dioxide emissions control in China. Cheltenham: Elgar, 194–198.

Liang Q, Fan Y, Wei Y. 2007.Carbon taxation policy in China: How to protect energy- and trade-intensive sectors? Journal of Policy Modeling, 29(2): 311–333.

Lofgren H, R Harris, S Robinson. 2002. A Standard Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model in GAMS, IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute).

National Population Development Strategy Research. 2007. Research Report on National Population Development Strategy. Population Research, (03): 4–9.

Pan W Q, Li Z N, Zhang W. 2001. Prospects for China Economy Growth in the first two decades of the 21 Century—An analysis based on the models of a supply- oriented economy and a demand-oriented economy. Forecasting, 20(3): 1–4.

Wang C, Chen J, Zou J. 2005. Impact Assessment of CO2 Mitigation on China Economy Based on a CGE Model. Journal of Tsinghua University (Science and Technology), 45(12): 1621–1624.

Wang M K. 2005. Key issues in China’s Development. Beijing: China development Press.

Wei Y, Liu L et al. 2008. China Energy Report: CO2 Emissions Research. Beijing: Economic Science Press, 201.

Wu Y, Xuan X. 2002. Economic Theory of Environmental Tax and Analysis of Their Application in China. Beijing: Economic Science Press, 410–413.

Zhang Z. 1998. Macroeconomic effects of CO2 emission limits: A computable general equilibrium analysis for China. Journal of Policy Modeling, 20(2): 213–250.

Zhang Z. 2009. In what format and under what timeframe would China take on climate commitments? A roadmap to 2050. MPRA Paper No. 15587.

Zheng Y, Fan M. 1999. CGE Model and Policy Analysis 0f China. Beijing：Social Science Literature Press.

Zhou S L, Yuan Y, Shi M. 2009. Comparable Analysis of Different Post-Kyoto Climate Regime and Mitigation Pressure of China. Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, 1(1): 185–204.

Zhou W. 2006. How developing countries can engage in GHG reduction: A case study for China. Sustainability Science, 1: 115–122.
Options
Outlines

/

〈 〉