Journal of Resources and Ecology ›› 2020, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (6): 570-579.DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.06.004
• Resource Economy • Previous Articles Next Articles
GAO Sheng1,2(), ZHAO Lin2(
), SUN Huihui1, CAO Guangxi3, LIU Wei1,*(
)
Received:
2020-06-02
Accepted:
2020-08-20
Online:
2020-11-30
Published:
2020-10-25
Contact:
LIU Wei
About author:
GAO Sheng, E-mail: Supported by:
GAO Sheng, ZHAO Lin, SUN Huihui, CAO Guangxi, LIU Wei. Evaluation and Driving Force Analysis of Marine Sustainable Development based on the Grey Relational Model and Path Analysis[J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2020, 11(6): 570-579.
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URL: http://www.jorae.cn/EN/10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.06.004
Grade | Ⅴ | Ⅳ | Ⅲ | Ⅱ | Ⅰ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Evaluation indicator value | [0, 0.2) | [0.2, 0.4) | [0.4, 0.6) | [0.6, 0.8) | [0.8, 1.0] |
State | Very bad | Bad | Neutral | Good | Very good |
Table 1 Evaluation standard of marine sustainable development
Grade | Ⅴ | Ⅳ | Ⅲ | Ⅱ | Ⅰ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Evaluation indicator value | [0, 0.2) | [0.2, 0.4) | [0.4, 0.6) | [0.6, 0.8) | [0.8, 1.0] |
State | Very bad | Bad | Neutral | Good | Very good |
System layer | Indicator layer | Unit | Coefficient of variation weight |
---|---|---|---|
Marine economy | Added value of marine industry (X1) | ×108 yuan | 0.0460 |
Gross marine product of coastal areas (X2) | ×108 yuan | 0.0488 | |
The proportion of marine GDP to coastal GDP (X3) | % | 0.0120 | |
Proportion of marine secondary industry in marine GDP in coastal areas (X4) | % | 0.0074 | |
Proportion of marine tertiary industry in marine GDP in coastal areas (X5) | % | 0.0083 | |
Number of employed personnel involved in the sea (X6) | ×104 person | 0.0138 | |
Passenger traffic volume in coastal areas (X7) | ×104 person | 0.0770 | |
Marine resources | Cargo throughput of coastal ports (X8) | ×104 t | 0.0419 |
Per capita water resources in coastal areas (X9) | m3 person-1 | 0.0273 | |
Mariculture area in coastal area (X10) | ×104 ha | 0.0093 | |
Coastal wind power generation capacity (X11) | ×104 kW | 0.0758 | |
Coastal wetland area (X12) | ×104 ha | 0.0288 | |
Area of marine nature reserves in coastal areas (X13) | ×104 ha | 0.1950 | |
Marine biodiversity (X14) | 0.0548 | ||
Marine environment | Economic losses caused by storm surges in coastal areas (X15) | ×108 yuan | 0.2351 |
Industrial wastewater discharge in coastal areas (X16) | ×104 t | 0.0110 | |
Standard rate of industrial wastewater discharge in coastal areas (X17) | % | 0.0011 | |
Industrial waste gas emissions in coastal areas (X18) | ×108 m3 | 0.0242 | |
Industrial smoke (dust) emission in coastal areas (X19) | ×108 m3 | 0.0073 | |
Disposal capacity of industrial solid waste in coastal areas (X20) | ×104 t | 0.0583 | |
Comprehensive utilization of industrial solid waste in coastal areas (X21) | ×104 t | 0.0165 |
Table 2 Evaluation indicator system of marine sustainable development
System layer | Indicator layer | Unit | Coefficient of variation weight |
---|---|---|---|
Marine economy | Added value of marine industry (X1) | ×108 yuan | 0.0460 |
Gross marine product of coastal areas (X2) | ×108 yuan | 0.0488 | |
The proportion of marine GDP to coastal GDP (X3) | % | 0.0120 | |
Proportion of marine secondary industry in marine GDP in coastal areas (X4) | % | 0.0074 | |
Proportion of marine tertiary industry in marine GDP in coastal areas (X5) | % | 0.0083 | |
Number of employed personnel involved in the sea (X6) | ×104 person | 0.0138 | |
Passenger traffic volume in coastal areas (X7) | ×104 person | 0.0770 | |
Marine resources | Cargo throughput of coastal ports (X8) | ×104 t | 0.0419 |
Per capita water resources in coastal areas (X9) | m3 person-1 | 0.0273 | |
Mariculture area in coastal area (X10) | ×104 ha | 0.0093 | |
Coastal wind power generation capacity (X11) | ×104 kW | 0.0758 | |
Coastal wetland area (X12) | ×104 ha | 0.0288 | |
Area of marine nature reserves in coastal areas (X13) | ×104 ha | 0.1950 | |
Marine biodiversity (X14) | 0.0548 | ||
Marine environment | Economic losses caused by storm surges in coastal areas (X15) | ×108 yuan | 0.2351 |
Industrial wastewater discharge in coastal areas (X16) | ×104 t | 0.0110 | |
Standard rate of industrial wastewater discharge in coastal areas (X17) | % | 0.0011 | |
Industrial waste gas emissions in coastal areas (X18) | ×108 m3 | 0.0242 | |
Industrial smoke (dust) emission in coastal areas (X19) | ×108 m3 | 0.0073 | |
Disposal capacity of industrial solid waste in coastal areas (X20) | ×104 t | 0.0583 | |
Comprehensive utilization of industrial solid waste in coastal areas (X21) | ×104 t | 0.0165 |
Year | Grey relational degree of correlation coefficient average method | Grey relational degree of weighting method | Average value of grey relational degree | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 0.7146 | 0.5881 | 0.6513 | 1 |
2012 | 0.5782 | 0.6246 | 0.6014 | 2 |
2014 | 0.6345 | 0.5259 | 0.5802 | 3 |
2015 | 0.6273 | 0.521 | 0.5741 | 4 |
2013 | 0.6097 | 0.5382 | 0.5739 | 5 |
2011 | 0.5383 | 0.4455 | 0.4919 | 6 |
2010 | 0.5487 | 0.4323 | 0.4905 | 7 |
2008 | 0.4590 | 0.4941 | 0.4766 | 8 |
2009 | 0.4571 | 0.3834 | 0.4203 | 9 |
2006 | 0.4474 | 0.3634 | 0.4054 | 10 |
2007 | 0.4069 | 0.3632 | 0.3850 | 11 |
Table 3 Marine sustainable development based on the grey relational model
Year | Grey relational degree of correlation coefficient average method | Grey relational degree of weighting method | Average value of grey relational degree | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 0.7146 | 0.5881 | 0.6513 | 1 |
2012 | 0.5782 | 0.6246 | 0.6014 | 2 |
2014 | 0.6345 | 0.5259 | 0.5802 | 3 |
2015 | 0.6273 | 0.521 | 0.5741 | 4 |
2013 | 0.6097 | 0.5382 | 0.5739 | 5 |
2011 | 0.5383 | 0.4455 | 0.4919 | 6 |
2010 | 0.5487 | 0.4323 | 0.4905 | 7 |
2008 | 0.4590 | 0.4941 | 0.4766 | 8 |
2009 | 0.4571 | 0.3834 | 0.4203 | 9 |
2006 | 0.4474 | 0.3634 | 0.4054 | 10 |
2007 | 0.4069 | 0.3632 | 0.3850 | 11 |
Fig. 3 Comparison of dynamic trends of the evolution of marine sustainable development based on the average correlation coefficient method and the weighting method
Fig. 4 Comparison of dynamic trend of the evolution of marine sustainable development based on the grey relational model and the comprehensive index model
Dependent variable (Y) | Kolmogorov- Smirnov(a) | Shapiro-Wilk | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Statistic | df | Sig. | Statistic | df | Sig. | |
Average value of grey relational degree of marine sustainable development | 0.190 | 3 | 0.998 | 3 | 0.905 |
Table 4 Output results of normality test
Dependent variable (Y) | Kolmogorov- Smirnov(a) | Shapiro-Wilk | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Statistic | df | Sig. | Statistic | df | Sig. | |
Average value of grey relational degree of marine sustainable development | 0.190 | 3 | 0.998 | 3 | 0.905 |
R | R2 | Adjusted R2 | Std. Error of the estimate |
---|---|---|---|
0.951a | 0.905 | 0.894 | 0.0287146 |
Table 5 Model overview output
R | R2 | Adjusted R2 | Std. Error of the estimate |
---|---|---|---|
0.951a | 0.905 | 0.894 | 0.0287146 |
Driving factors | The correlation coefficient of Y | Direct path coefficient | Indirect path coefficient total |
---|---|---|---|
X8 | 0.951 | 0.951 | 0 |
Table 6 Decomposition of simple correlation coefficients
Driving factors | The correlation coefficient of Y | Direct path coefficient | Indirect path coefficient total |
---|---|---|---|
X8 | 0.951 | 0.951 | 0 |
Indicator | Grey relational degree of correlation coefficient average method | Grey relational degree of weighting method | Average value of grey relational degree | Driving force ranking |
---|---|---|---|---|
X15 | 0.0351 | 0.1975 | 0.1163 | 1 |
X13 | 0.0357 | 0.1666 | 0.1012 | 2 |
X11 | 0.0454 | 0.0824 | 0.0639 | 3 |
X14 | 0.0519 | 0.0681 | 0.0600 | 4 |
X7 | 0.0405 | 0.0746 | 0.0575 | 5 |
X2 | 0.0498 | 0.0583 | 0.0540 | 6 |
X1 | 0.0475 | 0.0524 | 0.0500 | 7 |
X20 | 0.0410 | 0.0572 | 0.0491 | 8 |
X8 | 0.0473 | 0.0474 | 0.0474 | 9 |
X6 | 0.0659 | 0.0218 | 0.0438 | 10 |
X3 | 0.0673 | 0.0193 | 0.0433 | 11 |
X12 | 0.0501 | 0.0346 | 0.0423 | 12 |
X21 | 0.0525 | 0.0207 | 0.0366 | 13 |
X9 | 0.0426 | 0.0279 | 0.0353 | 14 |
X10 | 0.0564 | 0.0126 | 0.0345 | 15 |
X4 | 0.0536 | 0.0095 | 0.0316 | 16 |
X17 | 0.0583 | 0.0016 | 0.0299 | 17 |
X16 | 0.0464 | 0.0123 | 0.0293 | 18 |
X18 | 0.0352 | 0.0205 | 0.0279 | 19 |
X5 | 0.0415 | 0.0083 | 0.0249 | 20 |
X19 | 0.0360 | 0.0063 | 0.0212 | 21 |
Table 7 Main driving factors of marine sustainable development
Indicator | Grey relational degree of correlation coefficient average method | Grey relational degree of weighting method | Average value of grey relational degree | Driving force ranking |
---|---|---|---|---|
X15 | 0.0351 | 0.1975 | 0.1163 | 1 |
X13 | 0.0357 | 0.1666 | 0.1012 | 2 |
X11 | 0.0454 | 0.0824 | 0.0639 | 3 |
X14 | 0.0519 | 0.0681 | 0.0600 | 4 |
X7 | 0.0405 | 0.0746 | 0.0575 | 5 |
X2 | 0.0498 | 0.0583 | 0.0540 | 6 |
X1 | 0.0475 | 0.0524 | 0.0500 | 7 |
X20 | 0.0410 | 0.0572 | 0.0491 | 8 |
X8 | 0.0473 | 0.0474 | 0.0474 | 9 |
X6 | 0.0659 | 0.0218 | 0.0438 | 10 |
X3 | 0.0673 | 0.0193 | 0.0433 | 11 |
X12 | 0.0501 | 0.0346 | 0.0423 | 12 |
X21 | 0.0525 | 0.0207 | 0.0366 | 13 |
X9 | 0.0426 | 0.0279 | 0.0353 | 14 |
X10 | 0.0564 | 0.0126 | 0.0345 | 15 |
X4 | 0.0536 | 0.0095 | 0.0316 | 16 |
X17 | 0.0583 | 0.0016 | 0.0299 | 17 |
X16 | 0.0464 | 0.0123 | 0.0293 | 18 |
X18 | 0.0352 | 0.0205 | 0.0279 | 19 |
X5 | 0.0415 | 0.0083 | 0.0249 | 20 |
X19 | 0.0360 | 0.0063 | 0.0212 | 21 |
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