Variations in the Drought Severity Index in Response to Climate Change on the Tibetan Plateau

doi:10.5814/j.issn.1674-764X.2020.03.008

Abstract

Abstract:

Quantifying the relationship between the drought severity index and climate factors is crucial for predicting drought risk in situations characterized by climate change. However, variations in drought risk are not readily discernible under conditions of climate change, and this is particularly the case on the Tibetan Plateau. This study examines the correlations between the annual drought severity index (DSI) and 14 climate factors (including temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and hours of sunshine factors), on the Tibetan Plateau from 2000 to 2011. Spatial average DSI increased with precipitation and minimum relative humidity, while it decreased as the hours of sunshine increased. The correlation between DSI and climate factors varied with vegetation types. In alpine meadows, the correlation of the spatial DSI average with the percentage of sunshine and hours of sunshine (P<0.001) was higher compared to that in alpine steppes (P<0.05). Similarly, average vapor pressure and minimum relative humidity had significant positive effects on spatial DSI in alpine meadows, but had insignificant effects in alpine steppes. The magnitude of DSI change correlated negatively with temperature, precipitation, and vapor pressure, and positively with wind speed and sunshine. This demonstrates that the correlation between drought and climate change on the Tibetan Plateau is dependent on the type of ecosystem.

Key words: alpine ecosystems, climate change, drought, Tibetan Plateau

WANG Xiangtao, ZHANG Xianzhou, WANG Junhao, NIU Ben. Variations in the Drought Severity Index in Response to Climate Change on the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2020, 11(3): 304-314.

Figures/Tables 12

Fig. 1 Linear trends for (a) Ta, average annual air temperature; (b) MAT, maximum air temperature; (c) MIT, minimum air temperature; (d) EMAT, extreme maximum air temperature; (e) EMIT, extreme minimum air temperature; (f) TP, total precipitation; (g) MAP, maximum precipitation; (h) Ea, average vapor pressure; (i) RH, average relative humidity; (j) MIRH, minimum relative humidity; (k) VPD, average vapor pressure deficit; (l) SP, percentage of sunshine; (m) SH, sunshine hours; and (n) WS, average wind speed; from 2000 to 2011 based on data from 69 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau.

Fig. 2 Linear trends for the annual drought severity index (DSI) from 2000 to 2011, for different vegetation types on the Tibetan Plateau

Fig. 3 Drought severity index trend from 2000 to 2011 on the Tibetan Plateau

Fig. 4 Relationships of the linear trend of the annual drought severity index (Slope_DSI) with climate variables on the Tibetan Plateau. (a) average annual temperature (Ta); (b) maximum annual temperature (MAT); (c) minimum annual temperature (MIT); (d) extreme maximum annual temperature (EMAT); (e) extreme minimum annual temperature (EMIT); (f) annual precipitation (TP); (g) maximum annual precipitation (MAP); (h) average annual vapor pressure (Ea); (i) annual sunshine percentage (SP); (j) annual sunshine hours (SH); and (k) average annual wind speed (WS).

Fig. 5 Relationships between the linear trend of the annual drought severity index (Slope_DSI) and the linear trends of several climate factors: (a) maximum annual temperature (Slope_MAT); (b) extreme maximum annual temperature (Slope_EMAT); (c) extreme minimum annual temperature (Slope_EMIT); (d) annual precipitation (Slope_TP); (e) annual sunshine percentage (Slope_SP); and (f) annual sunshine hours (Slope_SH).

Fig. 6 Annual trends for (a) Ta, average air temperature; (b) MAT, maximum air temperature; (c) MIT, minimum air temperature; (d) EMAT, extreme maximum air temperature; (e) EMIT, extreme minimum air temperature; (f) WS, average wind speed; from 2000 to 2011 at 69 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau.

Table 1 Correlation coefficients for spatially averaged annual drought severity index (DSI) with spatially averaged climate factors from 2000 to 2011 at 69 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau

Types	Ta	MAT	MIT	EMAT	EMIT	TP	MAP	Ea	RH	MIRH	VPD	SP	SH	WS
Alpine meadows	-0.11	-0.42	0.26	-0.43	-0.08	0.59^*	0.20	0.67^*	0.50	0.71^**	-0.35	-0.85^***	-0.87^***	0.49
Alpine steppes	0.28	-0.07	0.58^*	-0.36	0.20	0.70^*	0.19	0.07	-0.17	-0.35	0.23	-0.74^**	-0.74^**	0.19
Temperate steppes	0.20	0.10	0.25	0.04	0.57	0.42	-0.19	0.29	-0.16	0.07	0.34	-0.23	-0.19	0.18
Croplands	-0.34	-0.48	-0.14	-0.55	-0.05	0.43	-0.22	0.36	0.50	0.26	-0.49	-0.90^***	-0.91^***	0.26
Forests	-0.71^**	-0.77^**	-0.73^**	-0.63^*	-0.69^*	0.54	0.24	0.74^**	0.78^**	-0.04	-0.76^**	-0.66^*	-0.65^*	-0.02
Shrublands	-0.66^*	-0.78^**	-0.51	-0.61^*	-0.36	0.66^*	-0.43	0.69^*	0.75^**	0.83^***	-0.73^**	-0.75^**	-0.75^**	0.03
All types	-0.28	-0.49	-0.03	-0.40	-0.11	0.61^*	-0.18	0.54	0.50	0.74^**	-0.42	-0.86^***	-0.86^***	0.31

Fig. 7 Annual trends for (a) TP, total precipitation; (b) MAP, maximum precipitation; (c) Ea, average vapor pressure; (d) RH, average relative humidity; (e) MIRH, minimum relative humidity; (f) VPD, average vapor pressure deficit; from 2000 to 2011 at 69 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau.

Fig. 8 Annual trends for (a) SP, percentage of sunshine; (b) SH, sunshine hours; from 2000 to 2011 at 69 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau.

Fig. 9 Correlation coefficients of the drought severity index (DSI) with: (a) Ta, average air temperature; (b) MAT, maximum air temperature; (c) MIT, minimum air temperature; (d) EMAT, extreme maximum air temperature; (e) EMIT, extreme minimum air temperature; (f) WS, average wind speed; from 2000 to 2011 at 69 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau.

Fig. 10 Correlation coefficients of the drought severity index (DSI) with: (a) TP, total precipitation; (b) MAP, maximum precipitation; (c) Ea, average vapor pressure; (d) RH, average relative humidity; (e) MIRH, minimum relative humidity; (f) VPD, average vapor pressure deficit; from 2000 to 2011 at 69 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau.

Fig. 11 Correlation coefficients of the drought severity index (DSI) with annual: (a) SP, percentage of sunshine; (b) SH, sunshine hours; from 2000 to 2011 at 69 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau.

References 29

1	Atkinson P M, Dash J, Jeganathan C . 2011. Amazon vegetation greenness as measured by satellite sensors over the last decade. Geophysical Research Letters, 38(19):1-6.
2	Dai A G . 2011. Drought under global warming: A review. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change, 2(1):45-65. DOI URL
3	Dai A G . 2013. Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models. Nature Climate Change, 3(1):52-58.
4	Fu G, Shen Z X . 2016. Environmental humidity regulates effects of experimental warming on vegetation index and biomass production in an alpine meadow of Northern Tibet. Plos One, 11(10). DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0165643.
5	Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) . 2013. Summary for Policymakers. In: Stocker T F, Qin D, Plattner G K, et al.(eds.). Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
6	Kerchove R V D, Lhermitte S, Veraverbeke S , et al. 2013. Spatio-temporal variability in remotely sensed land surface temperature, and its relationship with physiographic variables in the Russian Altay Mountains. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation & Geoinformation, 20(2):4-19.
7	Klein J A, Harte J, Zhao X Q . 2004. Experimental warming causes large and rapid species loss, dampened by simulated grazing on the Tibetan Plateau. Ecology Letters, 7:1170-1179.
8	Li L Y, Zhang J, Wu S , et al. 2019. Increasing sensitivity of alpine grasslands to climate variability along an elevational gradient on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Science of the Total Environment, 678:21-29.
9	Li N, Wang G X, Yang Y , et al. 2011. Plant production, and carbon and nitrogen source pools, are strongly intensified by experimental warming in alpine ecosystems in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Soil Biology & Biochemistry, 43(5):942-953.
10	Liu D K, Wang J B, Qi S H . 2014. Analysis on dry trend based on moisture index in Qinghai Province in the recent 35 years. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 21(2):246-250.
11	Mu Q Z, Zhao M S, Kimball J S , et al. 2013. A remotely sensed global terrestrial drought severity index. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 94(1):83-98. DOI URL
12	Seager R, Naik N, Vecchi G A . 2010. Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming. Journal of Climate, 23(17):4651-4668.
13	Sheffield J, Wood E F, Roderick M L . 2012. Little change in global drought over the past 60 years. Nature, 491(7424):435-438. DOI URL
14	Shen Z X, Fu G, Yu C Q , et al. 2014. Relationship between the growing season maximum enhanced vegetation index and climatic factors on the Tibetan Plateau. Remote Sensing, 6(8):6765-6789. DOI URL
15	Shen Z X, Li Y L, Fu G . 2015. Response of soil respiration to short-term experimental warming and precipitation pulses over the growing season in an alpine meadow on the Northern Tibet. Applied Soil Ecology, 90:35-40.
16	Shen Z X, Wang J W, Sun W , et al. 2016. The soil drying along the increase of warming mask the relation between temperature and soil respiration in an alpine meadow of Northern Tibet. Polish Journal of Ecology, 64:125-129.
17	Sun D, Kafatos M . 2007. Note on the NDVI-LST relationship and the use of temperature-related drought indices over North America. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(24):497-507.
18	Sun J, Cheng G W, Li W P , et al. 2013. On the variation of NDVI with the principal climatic elements in the Tibetan Plateau. Remote Sensing, 5:1894-1911. DOI URL
19	Trenberth K E, Dai A G, van der Schrier G , et al. 2014. Global warming and changes in drought. Nature Climate Change, 4(1):17-22.
20	Wang L, Chen W . 2014. A CMIP5 multimodel projection of future temperature, precipitation, and climatological drought in China. International Journal of Climatology, 34(6):2059-2078.
21	Wang M, Zhou C P, Wu L , et al. 2013. Wet-drought pattern and its relationship with vegetation change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during 2001-2010. Arid Land Geography, 36(1):49-56.
22	Wang S H, Sun W, Li S W , et al. 2015. Interannual variation of the growing season maximum normalized difference vegetation index, MNDVI, and its relationship with climatic factors on the Tibetan Plateau. Polish Journal of Ecology, 63(3):424-439.
23	Wang S P, Duan J C, Xu G P , et al. 2012. Effects of warming and grazing on soil N availability, species composition, and ANPP in an alpine meadow. Ecology, 93:2365-2376.
24	Yang X H, Zhuo G, Luo B . 2014. Drought monitoring in the Tibetan Plateau based on MODIS dataset. Journal of Desert Research, 34(2):527-534.
25	Yuan L, Liu Y, Ma P F . 2015. Analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics of drought in Tibet from 1981 to 2013 based on standardized precipitation index. China Agronomy Bulletin, 31(25):228-234.
26	Yu C Q, Han F S, Fu G . 2019a. Effects of 7 years experimental warming on soil bacterial and fungal community structure in the Northern Tibet alpine meadow at three elevations. Science of the Total Environment, 655:814-822. DOI URL
27	Yu C Q, Wang J W, Shen Z X , et al. 2019b. Effects of experimental warming and increased precipitation on soil respiration in an alpine meadow in the Northern Tibetan Plateau. Science of the Total Environment, 647:1490-1497.
28	Zhang L, Guo H D, Ji L , et al. 2013. Vegetation greenness trend (2000 to 2009) and the climate controls in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Journal of Applied Remote Sensing, 7(1). DOI: 10.1117/1111.jrs.1117.073572.
29	Zhong Z M, Shen Z X, Fu G . 2016. Response of soil respiration to experimental warming in a highland barley of the Tibet. Springer Plus, 5(137). DOI: 10.1186/s40064-40016-41761-40060.

[1]	Sydney M. GREENFIELD, Aliana C. NORRIS, Joseph P. LAMBERT, Wu liji, Se yongjun, ZHAN Jinqi, MA Bing, LI Deng, SHI Kun, Philip RIORDAN. Ungulate Mortality due to Fencing and Perceptions of Pasture Fences in Part of the Future Qilianshan National Park [J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2021, 12(1): 99-109.
[2]	SHI Peili, WU Ning, Gopal S. RAWAT. The Distribution Patterns of Timberline and Its Response to Climate Change in the Himalayas [J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2020, 11(4): 342-348.
[3]	NIU Ben, HE Yongtao, ZHANG Xianzhou, SHI Peili, DU Mingyuan. Satellite-based Estimates of Canopy Photosynthetic Parameters for an Alpine Meadow in Northern [J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2020, 11(3): 253-262.
[4]	CAO Yanan, ZHANG Xianzhou, NIU Ben, HE Yongtao. Comparison of Methods for Evaluating the Forage-livestock Balance of Alpine Grasslands on the Northern Tibetan Plateau [J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2020, 11(3): 272-282.
[5]	FENG Yunfei, DI Yingwei, ZHANG Jing, ZHANG Xianzhou, SHI Peili, Niu Ben. Impact of Grazing Exclusion on the Surface Heat Balance in North Tibet [J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2020, 11(3): 283-289.
[6]	ZHANG Guangyu, WANG Jiangwei, ZHANG Haorui, FU Gang, SHEN Zhenxi. Comparative Study of the Impact of Drought Stress on P.centrasiaticum at the Seedling Stage in Tibet [J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2020, 11(3): 322-328.
[7]	XIANG Ling, GAO Xiang, PENG Yuhui, LIANG Jie. Coupling the Occurrence of Correlative Plant Species to Predict the Habitat Suitability for Lesser White-fronted Goose (Anser erythropus) under Climate Change: A Case Study in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River [J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2020, 11(2): 140-149.
[8]	Raju RAI, Basanta PAUDEL, GU Changjun, Narendra Raj KHANAL. Change in the Distribution of National Bird (Himalayan Monal) Habitat in Gandaki River Basin, Central Himalayas [J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2020, 11(2): 223-231.
[9]	LIU Yuanzhe, SONG Wei, ZHAO Dongsheng, GAO Jiangbo. Progress in Research on the Influences of Climatic Changes on the Industrial Economy in China [J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2020, 11(1): 1-12.
[10]	Eric Ariel L. SALAS, Raul VALDEZ, Stefan MICHEL, Kenneth G. BOYKIN. Response of Asiatic ibex (Capra sibirica) under Climate Change Scenarios [J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2020, 11(1): 27-37.
[11]	WANG Zhao, WANG Junbang. Changes of Soil Erosion and Possible Impacts from Ecosystem Recovery in the Three-River Headwaters Region, Qinghai, China from 2000 to 2015 [J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2019, 10(5): 461-471.
[12]	YANG Yihan,WANG Junbang,LIU Peng,LU Guangxin,LI Yingnian. Climatic Changes Dominant Interannual Trend in Net Primary Productivity of Alpine Vulnerable Ecosystems [J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2019, 10(4): 379-388.
[13]	ZHOU Yuke. Characterizing the Spatio-temporal Dynamics and Variability in Climate Extremes over the Tibetan Plateau during 1960-2012 [J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2019, 10(4): 397-414.
[14]	TAN Jingfang, WAN Jizhong, LUO Fangli, YU Feihai. Relationships between Genetic Diversity of Vascular Plant Species and Climate Factors [J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2018, 9(6): 663-672.
[15]	TIAN Li, ZHANG Yangjian, Claus HOLZAPFEL, HUANG Ke, CHEN Ning, TAO Jian, ZHU Juntao. Vegetation Pattern in Northern Tibet in Relation to Environmental and Geo-spatial Factors [J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2018, 9(5): 526-537.