Study of the Population Carrying Capacity of Water and Land in Hainan Province

doi:10.5814/j.issn.1674-764X.2019.04.002

Abstract

Abstract:

In recent years, the rapid growth of population in Haikou and Sanya has caused extensive concern about the carrying capacity of Hainan Province. To formulate scientific population and environmental policies, it is necessary to research the relationship between population, carrying capacity and economic growth. In this paper, three indicators, grain production, nutrient composition of agricultural products and water resources, are used to measure carrying capacity quantitatively; the employment elasticity coefficient method is used to set the employment elasticity coefficient and the growth rate of regional GDP to estimate the total population needed to support economic growth; PADIS-INT population forecasting software that has parameters to track total fertility rate and net migration rate is used to predict demographic changes. The results show that, as of 2050, the total population of Hainan Province will not have exceeded the upper limit of the carrying capacity of land and water resources. In general, there is no overpopulation problem in the province, but there may be structural problems related to population, such as a large proportion of elderly people, labor shortages, and a high social dependency ratio. It is suggested that the local government should adopt positive population policies, improve the management of natural resources and the environment, and guide the balanced development of population in the province.

Key words: carrying capacity, economic growth, population, Hainan

HAO Qing,FENG Zhiming,YANG Yanzhao,YOU Zhen,CHENG Ping,DENG Ling. Study of the Population Carrying Capacity of Water and Land in Hainan Province[J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2019, 10(4): 353-361.

Figures/Tables 10

References 21

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Item	Grain	Vegetable oil	Sugar	Vegetable	Fruit	Meat	Eggs	Milk	Aquatic products
Energy (kcal kg^-1)	3553	9000	3776	180	436	3915	1468	690	782
Protein (g kg^-1)	93	0	4.6	11.4	6.2	99.5	123.8	33.6	125
Fat (g kg^-1)	25.7	1000	0	1.6	2.4	387.8	101.4	40.2	24.2

Item	Grain	Vegetable oil	Sugar	Vegetable	Fruit	Meat	Eggs	Milk	Aquatic products
Energy (kcal kg^-1)	3553	9000	3776	180	436	3915	1468	690	782
Protein (g kg^-1)	93	0	4.6	11.4	6.2	99.5	123.8	33.6	125
Fat (g kg^-1)	25.7	1000	0	1.6	2.4	387.8	101.4	40.2	24.2

Year	Energy (10⁸ kcal)	Protein (10⁸ g)	Fat (10⁸ g)	Energy loaded people (million)	Protein loaded people (million)	Fat loaded people (million)
2007	137550.71	4480.58	3350.46	15.7021	20.4593	30.5978
2008	150319.43	4738.55	3728.15	17.1598	21.6372	34.0471
2009	154042.72	4949.02	3972.77	17.5848	22.5983	36.2810
2010	149941.59	5001.40	4085.48	17.1166	22.8375	37.3104
2011	156751.29	5286.37	4283.87	17.8940	24.1387	39.1221
2012	168101.57	5680.18	4681.64	19.1897	25.9369	42.7547
2013	169561.83	5801.32	4846.83	19.3564	26.4900	44.2632
2014	166649.04	5919.28	4767.94	19.0239	27.0287	43.5428
2015	157849.18	5985.61	4711.76	18.0193	27.3316	43.0298
2016	152333.67	6024.85	4648.00	17.3897	27.5107	42.4475
Average	156310.10	5386.72	4307.69	17.8436	24.5969	39.3396

Year	Energy (10⁸ kcal)	Protein (10⁸ g)	Fat (10⁸ g)	Energy loaded people (million)	Protein loaded people (million)	Fat loaded people (million)
2007	137550.71	4480.58	3350.46	15.7021	20.4593	30.5978
2008	150319.43	4738.55	3728.15	17.1598	21.6372	34.0471
2009	154042.72	4949.02	3972.77	17.5848	22.5983	36.2810
2010	149941.59	5001.40	4085.48	17.1166	22.8375	37.3104
2011	156751.29	5286.37	4283.87	17.8940	24.1387	39.1221
2012	168101.57	5680.18	4681.64	19.1897	25.9369	42.7547
2013	169561.83	5801.32	4846.83	19.3564	26.4900	44.2632
2014	166649.04	5919.28	4767.94	19.0239	27.0287	43.5428
2015	157849.18	5985.61	4711.76	18.0193	27.3316	43.0298
2016	152333.67	6024.85	4648.00	17.3897	27.5107	42.4475
Average	156310.10	5386.72	4307.69	17.8436	24.5969	39.3396

Years	Total	Primary sector	Industrial sector	Service sector
1986-2016	0.05	0.02	0.04	0.13
1996-2016	0.10	0.04	0.09	0.25
2006-2016	0.24	0.06	0.33	0.43