Journal of Resources and Ecology ›› 2018, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (3): 290-301.doi: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2018.03.009

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Spatio-temporal Characteristics of the Extreme Climate Events and Their Potential Effects on Crop Yield in Ethiopia

SONG Shuai1, 3, LI Fadong2, 3, LU Yonglong1, 3, *, Kifayatullah Khan1, 4, XUE Jianfang1, LENG Peifang2, 3   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;
    3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    4. Department of Environmental and Conservation Sciences, University of Swat, Swat 19130, Pakistan
  • Received:2018-01-12 Revised:2018-03-23 Online:2018-05-30 Published:2018-06-06
  • Contact: LU Yonglong, E-mail: yllu@rcees.ac.cn
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China (41761144053,41501539,41420104004); National Key R & D Program of China (2017YFC0505706); International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (121311KYSB20170004); Key Technologies R & D program of Tianjin (16YFXTSF00380); Natural Science Foundation of Inner Mongolia Autonomous (2015KF01,20131510).

Abstract: Extreme climate events exhibit an increasing spatio-temporal trend globally, and the increasing intensity and frequency may have severe impacts on the human society and natural ecosystems. This study analyzed the extreme temperature and precipitation variability from 1956 to 2016, and evaluated their potential effects on crop yield in Ethiopia. Relative extreme temperature indices exhibited a decreasing trend with low-temperature events, but a significantly upward trend with extreme high temperature events. The frequency of annual warm nights increased to a greater degree than that of cold days. The total annual wet-day precipitation decreased significantly at a rate of -46 mm/decade. Further, the succession of dry days gradually increased by 5.6 day/decade, while an opposite trend of wet days was found with a decline of 1.4 day/ decade. The correlation between annual precipitation and crop production was 0.422, indicating that extreme precipitation indices may have higher explanatory power than extreme temperature indices in the crop yield variations. Moreover, the extreme climate changes have induced significant adverse impacts on crops yield particularly in Ethiopia where no proper adaptation measures have been implemented.

Key words: crop yield, Ethiopia, extreme climate, trend analysis