Quantitative Assessment of Climate Carrying Capacity  for Cities: A Case Study of Shanghai City

doi:10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2017.02.011

Journal of Resources and Ecology ›› 2017, Vol. 8 ›› Issue (2): 196-204.DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2017.02.011

Previous Articles Next Articles

Quantitative Assessment of Climate Carrying Capacity for Cities: A Case Study of Shanghai City

YAN Shengjun^{1, 2}, WANG Xuan^{1, 3, *}, ZENG Weihua¹, CUI Guannan^{1, 2}

1. State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
2. Key Laboratory for Water and Sediment Sciences of Ministry of Education, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
3. Beijing Engineering Research Center for Watershed Environmental Restoration & Integrated Ecological Regulation, Beijing 100875, China;

Received:2016-06-28 Online:2017-03-28 Published:2017-03-28
Contact: WANG Xuan, E-mail: wangx@bnu.edu.cn
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China (51421065, 51439001, 51679008), and Chinese National key research and development program (2016YFC0401302).

Abstract

Abstract: The concept of climate carrying capacity has been proposed recently for climate risk management. Based on identification of the concept of climate carrying capacity and analysis of the relationship among its influencing factors, this study established a comprehensive assessment indicator system of climate carrying capacity from aspects of the climate situation, the level of climate usage, and the development potential of cities. Taking Shanghai City as a case study, we developed a quantitative assessment model of climate carrying capacity. The climate carrying capacity and its influencing factors were analyzed and discussed in relation to the period 2004-2013. The results were as follows. (1) Current climate natural capacity indicator showed that the climatic situation of Shanghai City was inferior to its base climatic value and it had been in a state of fluctuation. (2) The climate stress and urban coordinated development capacity indicators increased steadily, but the growth rate of the urban coordinated development indicator was less than the growth rate of urban climate stress. (3) The climate carrying capacity was far lower than the benchmark value and it had been in a state of fluctuation mainly due to the effect of current climate situation. (4) According to a principal component analysis, seven factors of urban population density, per capita GDP, energy consumption per unit GDP, total industrial output value, investment in environment protection, spending on science and technology, and green area per capita were main influential factor of climate carrying capacity. It was proved that the proposed system for assessment of climate carrying capacity of a city was feasible. It can be used to describe the spatiotemporal changes of cities, and identify problems of regional climate carrying capacity associated with their development and function. This assessment system can provide a reference for the construction of an early warning system of climate carrying capacity for cities.

Key words: climate carrying capacity, climate of cities, quantitative assessment, Shanghai City

YAN Shengjun, WANG Xuan, ZENG Weihua, CUI Guannan. Quantitative Assessment of Climate Carrying Capacity for Cities: A Case Study of Shanghai City[J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2017, 8(2): 196-204.

References

[1] Field C B, Barros V, Dokken D J, et al . 2014. Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Volume I: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.
[2] He W. 2015. Study on the relationship between the urban development and carbon emissions-based on the research on Shanghai, Shandong province and Gansu province. PhD diss., Shanghai Normal University. (in Chinese)
[3] Huang R H, Xu F Y. 1996. A forward research topic of atmospheric sciences-climate system dynamics and climate prediction. Advance in Earth Sciences , 11(3): 231-237. (in Chinese)
[4] Kenneth A, Bert B, Robert C, et al . 1995. Economic Growth, Carrying Capacity, and the Environment. Ecological Economics . (15): 91-95.
[5] Liu Q L, Wang Q. 2012. Pollutant reduction allocation based on regional difference-COD reduction allocation between provinces as a case. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin. 21(4): 512-517. (in Chinese)
[6] Liu Z L, Qin B. 2013. Urban from and low-carbon cities: research progress and planning strategies. Urban Planning International . 28(2): 4-11. (in Chinese)
[7] Long T R, Jiang W C, He Q. 2004. Water resources carrying capacity: new perspectives based on economic analysis and sustainable development. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering . 1: 38-45. (in Chinese)
[8] Lv B, Sun L, Tan W K. 2008. Urban carrying capacity evaluation of Zhong yuan city agglomeration. China Population, Resources and Environment . 18(5): 53-58. (in Chinese)
[9] Pan J H, Zheng Y, Wang J W, et al . 2015. Climate capacity: the measurement for adaption to climate change. Chinese Journal of Population, Resources and Environment. 13(2): 99-108.
[10] Shen Y P, Wang G Y. 2013. Key findings and assessment results of IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report. Journal of Glaciology and Geocrylogy . 35(5): 1068-1076. (in Chinese)
[11] Shi J, Liang P, Wan Q L, et al . 2011. A review of the progress research on urban climate. Journal of tropical meteorology . 27(6): 942-951.
[12] UNESCO&FAO. 1985. Carrying Capacity Assessment with a Pilot Study of Kenya: a Resource Accounting Methodology for Sustainable Development. Paris and Rome.
[13] Wang D, Liu Y. 2016. Spatio-temporal difference and driving forces of air quality in Chinese cities. Journal of Resources and Ecology . 7(2): 77-84.
[14] Wang Y, Yu X, Lv P, et al . 2015. The verification of Kuznets curve of rapid urbanization stress on local climate in Shanghai. China Population, Resources and Environment. 24(2): 1-8. (in Chinese)
[15] Yu L, Lu Y Y, Huang W, et al . 2015. Significance and the basic method of climate carrying capacity evaluation. Beijing: China Meteorological Administration (CMA) National Climate Center. 11: 268-280.
[16] Zeng W H, Wang H D, Xue J Y, et al . 1991. Environmental carrying capacity: a key to the coordination of the development of population, resources and environment. China Population, Resources and Environment. 1(2): 33-37. (in Chinese)
[17] Zhang M, Gong Z N, Zhao W J. 2016. Analysis of driving forces of Baiyangdian wetland evolution during 1984-2013. Chinese Journal of Ecology. 35(2): 499-507.
[18] Zhang Q, Ma F, Wang Y, et al . 2015. A brief discussion about climatic capacity and its effect on risk management of climate safety. Advances in Earth Science . 30(6): 709-714. (in Chinese)
[19] Zhou X B, Zhang N H, Zhang Y, et al . 2014. Preliminary study on the relationship between the water quality and the aquatic biological health status of Taihu lake. Environment Science . 35(1): 271-278. (in Chinese)
[20] Zou Z H, Sun J N, Ren G P. 2005. Study and application on the entropy method for determination of evaluating indicators in fuzzy synthetic evaluation for water quality assessment. Acta Science Circumstantiates . 25(4): 552-556. (in Chinese)

Quantitative Assessment of Climate Carrying Capacity for Cities: A Case Study of Shanghai City

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 0

Recommended Articles

Metrics

Comments