1960-2012年青藏高原极端气候时空动态与变异研究

doi:10.5814/j.issn.1674-764X.2019.04.007

Abstract

Abstract:

Extreme climate events play an important role in studies of long-term climate change. As the Earth’s Third Pole, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is sensitive to climate change and variation. In this study on the TP, the spatiotemporal changes in climate extreme indices (CEIs) are analyzed based on daily maximum and minimum surface air temperatures and precipitation at 98 meteorological stations, most with elevations of at least 4000 m above sea level, during 1960-2012. Fifteen temperature extreme indices (TEIs) and eight precipitation extreme indices (PEIs) were calculated. Then, their long-term change patterns, from spatial and temporal perspectives, were determined at regional, eco-regional and station levels. The entire TP region exhibits a significant warming trend, as reflected by the TEIs. The regional cold days and nights show decreasing trends at rates of -8.9 d (10 yr)^-1 (days per decade) and -17.3 d (10 yr)^-1, respectively. The corresponding warm days and nights have increased by 7.6 d (10 yr)^-1 and 12.5 d (10 yr)^-1, respectively. At the station level, the majority of stations indicate statistically significant trends for all TEIs, but they show spatial heterogeneity. The eco-regional TEIs show patterns that are consistent with the entire TP. The growing season has become longer at a rate of 5.3 d (10 yr)^-1. The abrupt change points for CEIs were examined, and they were mainly distributed during the 1980s and 1990s. The PEIs on the TP exhibit clear fluctuations and increasing trends with small magnitudes. The annual total precipitation has increased by 2.8 mm (10 yr)^-1 (not statistically significant). Most of the CEIs will maintain a persistent trend, as indicated by their Hurst exponents. The developing trends of the CEIs do not show a corresponding change with increasing altitude. In general, the warming trends demonstrate an asymmetric pattern reflected by the rapid increase in the warming trends of the cold TEIs, which are of greater magnitudes than those of the warm TEIs. This finding indicates a positive shift in the distribution of the daily minimum temperatures throughout the TP. Most of the PEIs show weak increasing trends, which are not statistically significant. This work aims to delineate a comprehensive picture of the extreme climate conditions over the TP that can enhance our understanding of its changing climate.

Key words: Tibetan Plateau (TP), climate extreme indices (CEIs), trend analysis, change point, Hurst exponent

ZHOU Yuke. Characterizing the Spatio-temporal Dynamics and Variability in Climate Extremes over the Tibetan Plateau during 1960-2012[J].Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2019, 10(4): 397-414.

Figures/Tables 17

Fig. 1

Table 1

Table 2

Definitions of the climate extreme indices (CEIs)"

Name*	Descriptive name	Definition	Units
TN10p	Cold nights	Percentage of days when TN < 10th percentile	d
TN90p	Warm nights	Percentage of days when TN > 90th percentile	d
TX10p	Cold days	Percentage of days when TX < 10th percentile	d
TX90p	Warm days	Percentage of days when TX > 90th percentile	d
CSDI	Cold spell duration indicator	Annual count of days with at least 6 consecutive days when TN < 10th percentile	d
WSDI	Warm spell duration indicator	Annual count of days with at least 6 consecutive days when TX > 90th percentile	d
FD0	Frost days	Annual count of days when TN < 0℃	d
ID0	Ice days	Annual count of days when TX < 0℃	d
SU25	Summer days	Annual count of days when TX (daily maximum) > 25℃	d
GSL	Growing season Length	Annual (1st Jan to 31st Dec in NH, 1st July to 30th June in SH) count between first span of at least 6 days with mean temperature > 5℃ and first span after July 1 (January 1 in SH) of 6 days with mean temperature < 5℃	d
TN_n	Min Tmin	Monthly minimum value of daily minimum temp	℃
TN_x	Max Tmin	Monthly maximum value of daily minimum temp	℃
TX_n	Min Tmax	Monthly minimum value of daily maximum temp	℃
TX_x	Max Tmax	Monthly maximum value of daily maximum temp	℃
TMAX_mean		Mean of maximum value of daily average temperature	℃
TMIN_mean		Mean of minimum value of daily average temperature	℃
SDII	Simple daily intensity index	Annual total precipitation divided by the number of wet days (defined as PRCP ≥ 1.0 mm) in the year	Mm d^?1
R10p	Number of heavy precipitation days	Annual count of days when precipitation ≥10 mm	d
CWD	Consecutive wet days	The longest span of consecutive days when daily precipitation < 1mm	d
CDD	Consecutive dry days	The longest span of consecutive days when daily precipitation > 1mm	d
R95p	Very wet days	Annual total precipitation when precipitation > 95th percentile	mm
RX5day	Max 5-day precipitation amount	Monthly maximum precipitation for a continuous 5d span	mm
RX1day	Max 1-day precipitation amount	Monthly maximum 1-day precipitation	mm
PRCPTOT	Annual total wet-day precipitation	Annual total precipitation in wet days (precipitation ≥ 1mm)	mm

Table 2

Table 3

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Table 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

Fig. 8

Fig. 9

Fig. 10

Fig. 11

Table A1

Meta information for the meteorological stations used in the study, including the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Number, Latitude, Longitude, Elevation, Location, province, start date, end date and data missing period (1960-2012)"

Station number	Lat (N)	Long (E)	Elev (m)	Location	Province	Start date	End date	Missing data period
51804	37.76667	75.23333	3090.1	Taxkorgan	Xinjiang	195701	201412
51886	38.25	90.85	2944.8	Mangya	Qinghai	195809	201412
52602	38.75	93.33333	2770	Lenghu	Qinghai	195609	201412
52633	38.8	98.41667	3367	Tuole	Qinghai	195611	201412
52645	38.41667	99.58333	3320	Yeniugou	Qinghai	195902	201412
52657	38.18333	100.25	2787.4	Qilian	Qinghai	195605	201412
52707	36.8	93.68333	2767	Xiaozhaohuo	Qinghai	196006	201412	1974.04-1974.12
52713	37.85	95.36667	3173.2	Dacaidan	Qinghai	195605	201412
52737	37.36667	97.36667	2981.5	Delingha	Qinghai	195508	201412
52754	37.33333	100.1333	3301.5	Gangcha	Qinghai	195707	201412
52765	37.38333	101.6167	2850	Menyuan	Qinghai	195610	201412
52787	37.2	102.8667	3045.1	Wuqiaoling	Qinghai	195101	201412
52818	36.41667	94.9	2807.6	Golmud	Qinghai	195504	201412
52825	36.43333	96.41667	2790.4	Nomhon	Qinghai	195606	201412
52833	36.91667	98.48333	2950	Ulan	Qinghai	198008	201412
52836	36.3	98.1	3191.1	Dulan	Qinghai	195401	201412
52842	36.78333	99.08333	3087.6	Caka	Qinghai	195506	201412
Station number	Lat (N)	Long (E)	Elev (m)	Location	Province	Start date	End date	Missing data period
52856	36.26667	100.6167	2835	Qboqia	Qinghai	195301	201412
52866	36.71667	101.75	2295.2	Xining	Qinghai	195401	201412
52868	36.03333	101.4333	2237.1	Guizhou	Qinghai	195611	201412
52908	35.21667	93.08333	4612.2	Wudaoliang	Qinghai	195610	201412
52943	35.58333	99.98333	3323.2	Xinghai	Qinghai	196001	201412
52955	35.58333	100.75	3120	Guinan	Qinghai	195701	201412
52974	35.51667	102.0167	2491.4	Tongren	Qinghai	195712	201412
55228	32.5	80.08333	4278.6	Shiquanhe	Tibet	196101	201412
55248	32.15	84.41667	4414.9	Gaize	Tibet	197301	201412
55279	31.38333	90.01667	4700	Bange	Tibet	195610	201412	1965.04
55294	32.35	91.1	4800	Anduo	Tibet	196511	201412
55437	30.28333	81.25	4900	Pulan	Tibet	197301	201412
55472	30.95	88.63333	4672	Shenzha	Tibet	196004	201412
55493	30.48333	91.1	4200	Dangxiong	Tibet	196208	201412
55569	29.08333	87.6	4000	Lazi	Tibet	197707	201412
55572	29.68333	89.1	4000	Nanmulin	Tibet	196001	201412
55578	29.25	88.88333	3836	Shigatse	Tibet	195512	201412
55585	29.43333	90.16667	3809.4	Nimu	Tibet	197307	201412
55589	29.3	90.98333	3555.3	Gongga	Tibet	196101	201412
55591	29.66667	91.13333	3648.9	Lhasa	Tibet	195501	201412	1968.06-1968.10
55593	29.85	91.73333	3804.3	Mozhuongka	Tibet	197301	201412
55597	29.03333	91.68333	3741	Qiongjie	Tibet	195803	201412
55598	29.25	91.76667	3551.7	Zeeang	Tibet	195609	201412
55655	28.18333	85.96667	3810	Nielaer	Tibet	196607	201412
55664	28.63333	87.08333	4300	Dingri	Tibet	195901	201412	1968.11-1969.01, 1969.08-1970.09
55680	28.91667	89.6	4040	Jiangzi	Tibet	195611	201412
55681	28.96667	90.4	4432.4	Langkazi	Tibet	195801	201412
55690	27.98333	91.95	4280.3	Cuona	Tibet	196701	201412
55696	28.41667	92.46667	3860	Longzi	Tibet	195907	201412
55773	27.73333	89.08333	4300	Pali	Tibet	195602	201412
56004	34.21667	92.43333	4533.1	Tuotuohe	Qinghai	195610	201412
56018	32.9	95.3	4066.4	Zaduo	Qinghai	195610	201412
56021	34.13333	95.78333	4175	Qumalai	Qinghai	195607	201412	1962.08-1962.12
56029	33.01667	97.01667	3681.2	Yushu	Qinghai	195110	201412
56033	34.91667	98.21667	4272.3	Maduo	Qinghai	195301	201412
56034	33.8	97.13333	4415.4	Qingshuihe	Qinghai	195609	201412
56038	32.98333	98.1	4200	Shiqu	Sichuan	196010	201412
56041	34.26667	99.2	4211.1	Zhongxinzhan	Qinghai	195909	201412
56043	34.46667	100.25	3719	Guoluo	Qinghai	199101	201412
56046	33.75	99.65	3967.5	Dari	Qinghai	195601	201412
56065	34.73333	101.6	3500	Henan	Qinghai	195905	201412
56067	33.43333	101.4833	3628.5	Jiuzhi	Qinghai	195812	201412	1962.04-1962.05
56074	34	102.0833	3471.4	Maqu	Gansu	196701	201412
56075	34.08333	102.6333	3362.7	Langmushi	Gansu	195701	201412
56079	33.58333	102.9667	3439.6	Ruoergai	Sichuan	195701	201412
56080	35	102.9	2910	Hezuo	Gansu	195707	201412
Station number	Lat (N)	Long (E)	Elev (m)	Location	Province	Start date	End date	Missing data period
56106	31.88333	93.78333	4022.8	Suoxian	Tibet	195611	201412
56109	31.48333	93.78333	3940	Biru	Tibet	196201	201412
56116	31.41667	95.6	3873.1	Dingqing	Tibet	195401	201412	1969.06-1969.08
56125	32.2	96.48333	3643.7	Nangqian	Qinghai	195606	201412
56128	31.21667	96.6	3810	Leiwuqi	Tibet	197101	201412
56132	32.46667	98	3242.1	Shiquluoxu	Sichuan	196001	201412
56137	31.15	97.16667	3306	Changdu	Tibet	195401	201412
56144	31.8	98.58333	3184	Dege	Sichuan	195612	201412
56146	31.61667	100	3393.5	Ganzi	Sichuan	195101	201412
56151	32.93333	100.75	3530	Banma	Qinghai	196002	201412	1962.04-1965.04
56152	32.28333	100.3333	3893.9	Seda	Sichuan	196101	201412
56167	30.98333	101.1167	2957.2	Daofu	Sichuan	195702	201412
56172	31.9	102.2333	2664.4	Maerkang	Sichuan	195304	201412
56173	32.8	102.55	3491.6	Hongyuan	Sichuan	196005	201412
56178	31	102.35	2369.2	Xiaojin	Sichuan	195112	201412
56182	32.65	103.5667	2850.7	Songpan	Sichuan	195101	201412
56202	30.66667	93.28333	4488.8	Jiali	Tibet	195411	201412	1957.07-1960.12
56223	30.75	95.83333	3640	Luolong	Tibet	196201	201412
56227	29.86667	95.76667	2736	Bomi	Tibet	195501	201412	1956.11, 195706-196012
56228	30.05	96.91667	3260	Basu	Tibet	195901	201412
56247	30	99.1	2589.2	Batang	Sichuan	195209	201412	1968.05-1968.12
56251	30.93333	100.3167	3000	Xinlong	Sichuan	195910	201412
56257	30	100.2667	3948.9	Litang	Sichuan	195205	201412	196709, 1968.01-1968.07, 1969.05-1969.08
56265	30.48333	101.4833	3449	Ganning	Sichuan	195207	201412	1968.04-1968.08, 1969.08
56307	29.15	92.58333	3260	Jiacha	Tibet	199101	201412
56312	29.66667	94.33333	2991.8	Linzhi	Tibet	195401	201412
56317	29.21667	94.21667	2950	Milin	Tibet	196201	201412
56331	29.66667	97.83333	3780	Zuogong	Tibet	197801	201412
56342	29.68333	98.6	3870	Mangkang	Tibet	197201	201412
56357	29.05	100.3	3727.7	Daocheng	Sichuan	195701	201412	1968.05
56374	30.05	101.9667	2615.7	Kangding	Sichuan	195111	201412
56434	28.65	97.46667	2327.6	Chayu	Tibet	196902	201412
56444	28.48333	98.91667	3319	Deqin	Yunnan	195308	201412
56462	29	101.5	2987.3	Jiulong	Sichuan	195207	201412
56543	27.83333	99.7	3276.7	Zhongdian	Yunnan	195801	201412

Table A1

Table A2

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Region Code	Interpretation
HIIAB	Temperate, humid or semi-humid zone
HIIC	Temperate, semi-arid zone
HIID	Temperate, arid zone
HIB	Sub frigid, semi-humid zone
HIC	Sub frigid, semi-arid zone
HID	Frigid, arid zone
VA	Mid subtropical, humid zone

Trend\Indices	TN10p	TN90p		CSDI		TX10p		TX90p		WSDI		FD0		SU25	GSL
Theil-Sen Slope	-1.726**	1.025**		-0.108**		-0.800**		0.568**		0.080**		-0.504**		0.093**	0.528**
Kendall’s tau	-0.885**	0.749**		-0.762**		-0.562**		0.443**		0.478**		-0.702**		0.457**	0.636**
Trend\Indices	ID		TMAX_mean		TMIN_mean		TN_n		TN_x		TX_n		TX_x
Theil-Sen Slope	-0.334**		0.031**		0.051**		0.079**		0.027**		0.043**		0.027**
Kendall’s tau	-0.655**		0.508**		0.811**		0.852**		0.61**		0.473**		0.493**

Trend\Indices	SDII	RX5day	R10	R95p	PRCPTOT	RX1day	CDD	CWD
Theil-Sen Slope	0.004**	0.071**	0.011*	0.060*	0.079*	0.057*	-0.310**	-0.002
Kendall’s tau	0.406**	0.434**	0.235*	0.202*	0.302*	0.410*	-0.419**	-0.087

Eco-region	Station number	Eco-region	Station number
HIID2	1	HIB1	17
HID1	0	HIIAB1	28
HIID3	2	HIIC2	18
HIC2	4	VA6	1
HIID1	9	IVA2	0
HIIC1	15	VA5	0
HIC1	3

Characterizing the Spatio-temporal Dynamics and Variability in Climate Extremes over the Tibetan Plateau during 1960-2012

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