Journal of Resources and Ecology ›› 2023, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (2): 372-382.DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2023.02.015

• Resources and Environment • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Projections of the Emission Reductions of Carbon Dioxide and Conventional Pollutants in the Major Transport Sectors of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, China

GUO Xiurui(), GONG Xiaoqian, LIU Yao, ZHANG Yiling   

  1. Key Laboratory of Beijing on Regional Air Pollution Control, Faculty of Environment and Life, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
  • Received:2022-04-28 Accepted:2022-06-28 Online:2023-03-30 Published:2023-02-21
  • Contact: GUO Xiurui
  • Supported by:
    The National Natural Science Foundation of China(51978011)


Many stakeholders recognize that the transport sector should be a major focus for reducing the emissions of carbon and air pollutants since it is the third largest sector for energy consumption in China. This study analyzed and projected the energy consumption and emissions of CO2 and conventional air pollutants (CO, NOX, SO2, and PM2.5) from four transport sectors (highway, waterway, railway and aviation) based on the LEAP model, compared the emission reduction potentials of different transport sectors under different scenarios in 2020-2060, and finally explored the co-reduction effect for CO2 and the four pollutants under different control measures. The results showed that the CO2 emissions from the transportation sectors in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region would increase greatly under the baseline scenario. Estimates indicate that the CO2 emissions of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province would increase by 263.72%, 225.87% and 405.43% in 2060, respectively. Under the comprehensive policy scenario, the emission reductions would be 88.78%, 76.86% and 83.20% respectively, and the maximum emission reduction rate of pollutants is expected to reach 78.73%-99.34%. The sectors with major reduction potentials for CO2 and conventional pollutants are the aviation and road transport sectors, which contribute 38.19%-99.85% of the total, respectively. The co-reduction achieved by optimizing the energy structure in the road transport and aviation sectors would be the best. The results of this study can provide a basis for the formulation of low-carbon reduction strategies for the transport sectors in the BTH region.

Key words: transport sector, reduction potential, scenario analysis, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region