Patterns and Driving Forces of Cropland Abandonment in Mountainous Areas

doi:10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2022.03.005

Abstract

Abstract:

Cropland abandonment is spreading from developed countries to developing countries such as China. Cropland abandonment in China commonly occurs in mountainous areas due to their specific natural and geographical conditions. However, due to the lack of dependable monitoring methods via medium-high-resolution remote sensing images, the scale of abandoned cropland in many mountainous areas of China is unclear, and the mechanisms driving cropland abandonment have not been clearly identified. To overcome these limitations, we took Zhong County of Chongqing in China as an example, and used Landsat 8 OLI_TIRS remote sensing image data to develop a method for mapping abandoned cropland in mountainous areas based on annual land use change monitoring. At the same time, the ridge regression method was adopted to analyze the factors influencing cropland abandonment. These analyses showed that the cropland abandonment rate in Zhong County of Chongqing was as high as 7.86%, while the overall accuracy of identifying abandoned cropland was as high as 90.82%. Among the social and economic factors that affect cropland abandonment, the rural population, economic development, and livestock husbandry development were the most important ones. At the land parcel scale, large-scale cropland abandonment occurred in areas at elevations above 650 m or with slopes of more than 15°.

Key words: cropland abandonment, remote sensing, driving factors, Zhong County, China

CHEN Shuanglong, SONG Wei, LI Han, LI Han. Patterns and Driving Forces of Cropland Abandonment in Mountainous Areas[J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2022, 13(3): 394-406.

Figures/Tables 12

References 40

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Acquisition date	Cloud cover (%)	Solar azimuth (°)	Solar height (°)
2013-08-12	10.22	120.83	64.07
2014-07-30	6.06	113.21	65.49
2015-01-22	18.70	151.16	34.62
2016-06-17	0.14	103.77	68.91
2017-07-22	6.20	109.64	66.38
2018-06-07	4.42	105.74	68.90

Acquisition date	Cloud cover (%)	Solar azimuth (°)	Solar height (°)
2013-08-12	10.22	120.83	64.07
2014-07-30	6.06	113.21	65.49
2015-01-22	18.70	151.16	34.62
2016-06-17	0.14	103.77	68.91
2017-07-22	6.20	109.64	66.38
2018-06-07	4.42	105.74	68.90

Variables		Minimum	Maximum	Mean	Standard deviation	Expected effect
Dependent variable	Cropland abandonment rate (%)	0.87	24.04	8.66	1.110
Independent variable	Explanatory variables birth rate (%)	7.51	14.56	11.38	0.392	-
	Out-migrants (person)	32	2761	326.36	92.954	+
	Natural population growth rate (%)	-3.26	6.34	2.11	0.586	-
	Rural population (person)	6932	49629	26787.61	2279.835	-
	Student enrollment (person)	385	37717	4000.71	1321.580	+
	Capital introduction from outside the county (10⁴ yuan)	1000	10500	5633.21	585.161	+/-
	Average disposable personal income of rural residents (yuan)	8350	12236	9959.25	203.303	+
	Added value of agriculture (10⁴ yuan)	1425	21500	11163.79	999.254	-
	Industrial added value (10⁴ yuan)	978	499812	29073.50	17848.175	+
	Industrial investment (10⁴ yuan)	350	193312	16850.25	8843.985	+
	Total retail sales of consumer goods (10⁴ yuan)	1099	376457	20573.68	13228.794	+/-
	Individual business (household)	100	10131	1045.07	346.572	+
	Meat production (t)	408	4715	2641.89	233.094	-
	Citrus cultivation area (km²)	0.08	23.12	8.00	1.35	+/-

Variables		Minimum	Maximum	Mean	Standard deviation	Expected effect
Dependent variable	Cropland abandonment rate (%)	0.87	24.04	8.66	1.110
Independent variable	Explanatory variables birth rate (%)	7.51	14.56	11.38	0.392	-
	Out-migrants (person)	32	2761	326.36	92.954	+
	Natural population growth rate (%)	-3.26	6.34	2.11	0.586	-
	Rural population (person)	6932	49629	26787.61	2279.835	-
	Student enrollment (person)	385	37717	4000.71	1321.580	+
	Capital introduction from outside the county (10⁴ yuan)	1000	10500	5633.21	585.161	+/-
	Average disposable personal income of rural residents (yuan)	8350	12236	9959.25	203.303	+
	Added value of agriculture (10⁴ yuan)	1425	21500	11163.79	999.254	-
	Industrial added value (10⁴ yuan)	978	499812	29073.50	17848.175	+
	Industrial investment (10⁴ yuan)	350	193312	16850.25	8843.985	+
	Total retail sales of consumer goods (10⁴ yuan)	1099	376457	20573.68	13228.794	+/-
	Individual business (household)	100	10131	1045.07	346.572	+
	Meat production (t)	408	4715	2641.89	233.094	-
	Citrus cultivation area (km²)	0.08	23.12	8.00	1.35	+/-

Explanatory variable	Ridge regression model
Explanatory variable	Estimated parameter	Normalized parameter	Standard error	t value
Constant	9.03
Birth rate	-0.19	-1.010	0.803	0.803
Out-migrants	0.18	0.942	1.345	1.345
Natural population growth rate	0.19	0.978	0.757	0.757
Rural population	-0.41^**	-2.117	2.332	2.332
Student enrollment	0.31^**	1.609	2.453	2.453
Capital introduction from outside the county	0.63^**	3.297	2.520	2.520
Average disposable personal income of rural residents	0.74^***	3.868	2.810	2.810
Added value of agriculture	-0.67^***	-3.464	3.528	3.528
Industrial added value	0.17	0.875	1.289	1.289
Industrial investment	-0.17	-0.863	0.656	0.656
Total retail sales of consumer goods	0.27^**	1.392	2.138	2.138
Individual business	0.21^*	1.104	1.817	1.817
Meat production	-0.47^***	-2.418	2.596	2.596
Citrus cultivation area	-0.42	-2.166	1.55	1.55