Journal of Resources and Ecology ›› 2022, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (3): 394-406.DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2022.03.005
• Land Use and Sustainable Development • Previous Articles Next Articles
CHEN Shuanglong1,2(), SONG Wei1,*(
), LI Han1,3, LI Han1,4
Received:
2020-11-14
Accepted:
2021-08-20
Online:
2022-05-30
Published:
2022-04-18
Contact:
SONG Wei
About author:
CHEN Shuanglong, E-mail: chenshuanglong@igsnrr.ac.cn
Supported by:
CHEN Shuanglong, SONG Wei, LI Han, LI Han. Patterns and Driving Forces of Cropland Abandonment in Mountainous Areas[J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2022, 13(3): 394-406.
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URL: http://www.jorae.cn/EN/10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2022.03.005
Acquisition date | Cloud cover (%) | Solar azimuth (°) | Solar height (°) |
---|---|---|---|
2013-08-12 | 10.22 | 120.83 | 64.07 |
2014-07-30 | 6.06 | 113.21 | 65.49 |
2015-01-22 | 18.70 | 151.16 | 34.62 |
2016-06-17 | 0.14 | 103.77 | 68.91 |
2017-07-22 | 6.20 | 109.64 | 66.38 |
2018-06-07 | 4.42 | 105.74 | 68.90 |
Table 1 Specific parameters of the acquired Landsat 8 images
Acquisition date | Cloud cover (%) | Solar azimuth (°) | Solar height (°) |
---|---|---|---|
2013-08-12 | 10.22 | 120.83 | 64.07 |
2014-07-30 | 6.06 | 113.21 | 65.49 |
2015-01-22 | 18.70 | 151.16 | 34.62 |
2016-06-17 | 0.14 | 103.77 | 68.91 |
2017-07-22 | 6.20 | 109.64 | 66.38 |
2018-06-07 | 4.42 | 105.74 | 68.90 |
Variables | Minimum | Maximum | Mean | Standard deviation | Expected effect | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dependent variable | Cropland abandonment rate (%) | 0.87 | 24.04 | 8.66 | 1.110 | |
Independent variable | Explanatory variables birth rate (%) | 7.51 | 14.56 | 11.38 | 0.392 | - |
Out-migrants (person) | 32 | 2761 | 326.36 | 92.954 | + | |
Natural population growth rate (%) | -3.26 | 6.34 | 2.11 | 0.586 | - | |
Rural population (person) | 6932 | 49629 | 26787.61 | 2279.835 | - | |
Student enrollment (person) | 385 | 37717 | 4000.71 | 1321.580 | + | |
Capital introduction from outside the county (104 yuan) | 1000 | 10500 | 5633.21 | 585.161 | +/- | |
Average disposable personal income of rural residents (yuan) | 8350 | 12236 | 9959.25 | 203.303 | + | |
Added value of agriculture (104 yuan) | 1425 | 21500 | 11163.79 | 999.254 | - | |
Industrial added value (104 yuan) | 978 | 499812 | 29073.50 | 17848.175 | + | |
Industrial investment (104 yuan) | 350 | 193312 | 16850.25 | 8843.985 | + | |
Total retail sales of consumer goods (104 yuan) | 1099 | 376457 | 20573.68 | 13228.794 | +/- | |
Individual business (household) | 100 | 10131 | 1045.07 | 346.572 | + | |
Meat production (t) | 408 | 4715 | 2641.89 | 233.094 | - | |
Citrus cultivation area (km2) | 0.08 | 23.12 | 8.00 | 1.35 | +/- |
Table 2 Social and economic development variables, summary statistics, and the expected effects of each variable
Variables | Minimum | Maximum | Mean | Standard deviation | Expected effect | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dependent variable | Cropland abandonment rate (%) | 0.87 | 24.04 | 8.66 | 1.110 | |
Independent variable | Explanatory variables birth rate (%) | 7.51 | 14.56 | 11.38 | 0.392 | - |
Out-migrants (person) | 32 | 2761 | 326.36 | 92.954 | + | |
Natural population growth rate (%) | -3.26 | 6.34 | 2.11 | 0.586 | - | |
Rural population (person) | 6932 | 49629 | 26787.61 | 2279.835 | - | |
Student enrollment (person) | 385 | 37717 | 4000.71 | 1321.580 | + | |
Capital introduction from outside the county (104 yuan) | 1000 | 10500 | 5633.21 | 585.161 | +/- | |
Average disposable personal income of rural residents (yuan) | 8350 | 12236 | 9959.25 | 203.303 | + | |
Added value of agriculture (104 yuan) | 1425 | 21500 | 11163.79 | 999.254 | - | |
Industrial added value (104 yuan) | 978 | 499812 | 29073.50 | 17848.175 | + | |
Industrial investment (104 yuan) | 350 | 193312 | 16850.25 | 8843.985 | + | |
Total retail sales of consumer goods (104 yuan) | 1099 | 376457 | 20573.68 | 13228.794 | +/- | |
Individual business (household) | 100 | 10131 | 1045.07 | 346.572 | + | |
Meat production (t) | 408 | 4715 | 2641.89 | 233.094 | - | |
Citrus cultivation area (km2) | 0.08 | 23.12 | 8.00 | 1.35 | +/- |
Explanatory variable | Ridge regression model | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Estimated parameter | Normalized parameter | Standard error | t value | ||
Constant | 9.03 | ||||
Birth rate | -0.19 | -1.010 | 0.803 | 0.803 | |
Out-migrants | 0.18 | 0.942 | 1.345 | 1.345 | |
Natural population growth rate | 0.19 | 0.978 | 0.757 | 0.757 | |
Rural population | -0.41** | -2.117 | 2.332 | 2.332 | |
Student enrollment | 0.31** | 1.609 | 2.453 | 2.453 | |
Capital introduction from outside the county | 0.63** | 3.297 | 2.520 | 2.520 | |
Average disposable personal income of rural residents | 0.74*** | 3.868 | 2.810 | 2.810 | |
Added value of agriculture | -0.67*** | -3.464 | 3.528 | 3.528 | |
Industrial added value | 0.17 | 0.875 | 1.289 | 1.289 | |
Industrial investment | -0.17 | -0.863 | 0.656 | 0.656 | |
Total retail sales of consumer goods | 0.27** | 1.392 | 2.138 | 2.138 | |
Individual business | 0.21* | 1.104 | 1.817 | 1.817 | |
Meat production | -0.47*** | -2.418 | 2.596 | 2.596 | |
Citrus cultivation area | -0.42 | -2.166 | 1.55 | 1.55 |
Table 3 Regression results of the social and economic explanatory variables
Explanatory variable | Ridge regression model | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Estimated parameter | Normalized parameter | Standard error | t value | ||
Constant | 9.03 | ||||
Birth rate | -0.19 | -1.010 | 0.803 | 0.803 | |
Out-migrants | 0.18 | 0.942 | 1.345 | 1.345 | |
Natural population growth rate | 0.19 | 0.978 | 0.757 | 0.757 | |
Rural population | -0.41** | -2.117 | 2.332 | 2.332 | |
Student enrollment | 0.31** | 1.609 | 2.453 | 2.453 | |
Capital introduction from outside the county | 0.63** | 3.297 | 2.520 | 2.520 | |
Average disposable personal income of rural residents | 0.74*** | 3.868 | 2.810 | 2.810 | |
Added value of agriculture | -0.67*** | -3.464 | 3.528 | 3.528 | |
Industrial added value | 0.17 | 0.875 | 1.289 | 1.289 | |
Industrial investment | -0.17 | -0.863 | 0.656 | 0.656 | |
Total retail sales of consumer goods | 0.27** | 1.392 | 2.138 | 2.138 | |
Individual business | 0.21* | 1.104 | 1.817 | 1.817 | |
Meat production | -0.47*** | -2.418 | 2.596 | 2.596 | |
Citrus cultivation area | -0.42 | -2.166 | 1.55 | 1.55 |
Slope (°) | 0-2 | 2-6 | 6-15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | ≥35 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Abandoned cropland (km2) | 0.61 | 3.61 | 14.71 | 14.33 | 5.27 | 0.80 |
Cropland (km2) | 37.13 | 169.44 | 232.44 | 56.81 | 4.14 | 0.20 |
Abandonment rate (%) | 1.40 | 1.81 | 5.00 | 15.95 | 40.81 | 65.04 |
Table 4 Influences of different slope grades on cropland abandonment in Zhong County
Slope (°) | 0-2 | 2-6 | 6-15 | 15-25 | 25-35 | ≥35 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Abandoned cropland (km2) | 0.61 | 3.61 | 14.71 | 14.33 | 5.27 | 0.80 |
Cropland (km2) | 37.13 | 169.44 | 232.44 | 56.81 | 4.14 | 0.20 |
Abandonment rate (%) | 1.40 | 1.81 | 5.00 | 15.95 | 40.81 | 65.04 |
Elevation (m) | 0-200 | 200-350 | 350-500 | 500-650 | 650-800 | ≥800 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Abandoned cropland (km2) | 1.26 | 7.04 | 15.81 | 11.64 | 3.12 | 0.46 |
Cropland (km2) | 18.41 | 97.01 | 213.04 | 148.72 | 20.53 | 2.44 |
The abandonment rate (%) | 6.82 | 7.26 | 7.42 | 7.83 | 15.22 | 18.79 |
Table 5 Influences of different elevation grades on cropland abandonment in Zhong County
Elevation (m) | 0-200 | 200-350 | 350-500 | 500-650 | 650-800 | ≥800 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Abandoned cropland (km2) | 1.26 | 7.04 | 15.81 | 11.64 | 3.12 | 0.46 |
Cropland (km2) | 18.41 | 97.01 | 213.04 | 148.72 | 20.53 | 2.44 |
The abandonment rate (%) | 6.82 | 7.26 | 7.42 | 7.83 | 15.22 | 18.79 |
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