Simulating the Impacts of the New-type Urbanization Policy on Rural Settlement Changes: A Case Study in Dingzhou, China

doi:10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2022.02.011

Abstract

Abstract:

To cope with the difficulties of integrating migrant workers into urban life and inefficient land use caused by conventional urbanization, China has proposed a new type of urbanization policy. This policy may have a significant impact on the spatial patterns of rural settlements in China. Exploring this potential impact is conducive to the proposal of scientific plans for the spatial patterns of rural settlements. Therefore, this paper chooses Dingzhou, one of the pilot cities of this new-type urbanization, as the research area to carry out a simulation study on the impact of the new-type urbanization policy. Dingzhou has invested heavily in the new-type urbanization construction in recent years, but the influence of the policy on rural settlements remains unclear. Based on the theoretical framework of previous studies, this paper set up three scenarios, namely “conventional urbanization”, “new-type urbanization”, and “counter-urbanization”. This paper used FLUS (Future Land Use Simulation) Model and various spatial data to simulate the spatial patterns of rural settlements in Dingzhou in 2030 under the different scenarios. By comparing the different scenarios, the impacts of the new-type urbanization policy on the spatial patterns of rural settlements in Dingzhou were evaluated. The results indicated that: (1) From 2000 to 2015, the area of rural settlements in Dingzhou increased by 11.12%. Spatially, the density of rural settlements around the cities and towns increased, and rural settlement areas were mainly converted from cultivated land. Rural settlements were mainly transformed into urban land and cultivated land. (2) The overall simulation accuracy of FLUS was 0.89, so it can be well applied to the simulation of rural settlements. (3) In all three scenarios, rural settlements expanded along their edges, and the closer they were to towns, the more obvious the expansion was. In the counter-urbanization scenario, the change of rural settlements was most dramatic. (4) The new-type urbanization policy makes the spatial patterns of rural settlements in Dingzhou more stable and more intensive.

Key words: land use, rural settlement, new-type urbanization, FLUS, Dingzhou, China

GUO Jie, SONG Wei, GUO Liyu, ZHANG Yuling. Simulating the Impacts of the New-type Urbanization Policy on Rural Settlement Changes: A Case Study in Dingzhou, China[J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2022, 13(2): 285-298.

Figures/Tables 12

Fig. 1 Location of Dingzhou, China Note: In the lower left corner of the picture, CD: Chengde; ZJK: Zhangjiakou; QHD: Qinhuangdao; BJ: Beijing; LF: Langfang,; TS: Tangshan; TJ: Tianjin; BD: Baoding; CZ: Cangzhou; SJZ: Shijiazhuang; HS: Hengshui; XT: Xingtai; and HD: Handan. On the right, the full names of the abbreviations are as follows: QFD: Qingfengdian; LZ: Liuzao; PC: Pangcun; DXZ: Daxinzhuang; XYC: Xiaoyoucun; YJZ: Yangjiazhuang; DT: Dongting; MYD: Mingyuedian; HTZ: Haotouzhuang Hui; ZC: Zhoucun; BGP: Beigaopeng; and XC: Xicheng.

Table 1 Details of the research data obtained for Dingzhou

Data	Type	Resolution (m)	Source
Land use/land cover data	Raster	30	RESDC
GDP spatial distribution data	Raster	1000	RESDC
Population spatial distribution data	Raster	1000	RESDC
Digital Elevation Model	Raster	30	Geospatial Data Cloud
Distance to water area	Raster	30
Distance to urban land	Raster	30
Distance to rural settlement	Raster	30
Slope data	Raster	30
Main canal spatial distribution data	Vector
Expressway spatial distribution data	Vector
Railway spatial distribution data	Vector

Fig. 2 Schematic illustration of the research framework

Table 2 Demands for land area under different development scenarios in Dingzhou, China, in 2030. (Unit: %)

Land use type	Conventional urbanization	New-type urbanization	Counter- urbanization
Cultivated land	73.76	72.62	68.92
Forest	0.09	3.31	3.31
Water area	2.55	3.05	3.05
Urban land	5.67	3.79	3.80
Rural settlement	16.64	15.65	19.35
Other construction	1.29	1.57	1.57

Table 3 Future land use cost matrix under the three urbanization scenarios

Land use type	Cultivated land	Forest	Water area	Urban land	Rural settlement	Other constructions
Cultivated land	a1/b1/c1	a1/b1/c1	a1/b1/c1	a1/b1/c1	a1/b1/c1	a1/b1/c1
Forest	a1/b1/c1	a1/b1/c1	a1/b1/c1	a1/b1/c0	a1/b1/c0	a1/b1/c0
Water area	a1/b1/c1	a1/b1/c1	a1/b1/c1	a1/b1/c0	a1/b1/c0	a1/b1/c0
Urban land	a1/b1/c1	a0/b1/c1	a0/b1/c1	a0/b1/c1	a0/b1/c1	a0/b1/c1
Rural settlement	a1/b1/c1	a1/b1/c1	a1/b1/c1	a1/b1/c1	a1/b1/c1	a1/b1/c1
Other construction	a1/b1/c1	a0/b1/c1	a0/b1/c1	a1/b1/c1	a0/b1/c1	a1/b1/c1

Table 4 Neighborhood weights of the different land use types

Land use type	Cultivated land	Forest	Water area	Urban land	Rural settlement	Other construction land
Neighborhood weight	0.5	0.4	0.5	1	0.8	0.9

Table 5 Area of each land use type in Dingzhou, China, in different years (Unit: km²)

Land use type	2000	2005	2010	2015
Cultivated land	1059.54	1058.49	1056.25	997.10
Forest	1.46	1.41	1.46	1.20
Water area	25.94	25.87	25.94	29.62
Urban land	16.80	18.02	18.85	40.40
Rural settlement	174.32	174.27	174.80	196.13
Other construction land	1.76	1.76	2.53	15.38
Total	1279.82	1279.82	1279.82	1279.82

Fig. 3 Land use status of Dingzhou, China in 2000 (a), 2005 (b), 2010 (c), and 2015 (d). Note: QFD: Qingfengdian; LZ: Liuzao; PC: Pangcun; DXZ: Daxinzhuang; XYC: Xiaoyoucun; YJZ: Yangjiazhuang; DT: Dongting; MYD: Mingyuedian; HTZ: Haotouzhuang Hui; ZC: Zhoucun; BGP: Beigaapeng; and XC: Xicheng.

Fig. 4 Land use status in Dingzhou, China, in 2015 (a) and simulation results (b). Note: QFD: Qingfengdian; LZ: Liuzao; PC: Pangcun; DXZ: Daxinzhuang; XYC: Xiaoyoucun; YJZ: Yangjiazhuang; DT: Dongting; MYD: Mingyuedian; HTZ: Haotouzhuang Hui; ZC: Zhoucun; BGP: Beigaapeng; and XC: Xicheng.

Fig. 5 Spatial distribution of the probability-of-occurrence of rural settlements in Dingzhou, China Note: QFD: Qingfengdian; LZ: Liuzao; PC: Pangcun; DXZ: Daxinzhuang; XYC: Xiaoyoucun; YJZ: Yangjiazhuang; DT: Dongting; MYD: Mingyuedian; HTZ: Haotouzhuang Hui; ZC: Zhoucun; BGP: Beigaapeng; and XC: Xicheng.

Fig. 6 Land use in Dingzhou, China, in 2030 under the conventional urbanization scenario (a), the new-type urbanization scenario (b), and the counter-urbanization scenario (c). Note: QFD: Qingfengdian; LZ: Liuzao; PC: Pangcun; DXZ: Daxinzhuang; XYC: Xiaoyoucun; YJZ: Yangjiazhuang; DT: Dongting; MYD: Mingyuedian; HTZ: Haotouzhuang Hui; ZC: Zhoucun; BGP: Beigaapeng; and XC: Xicheng.

Fig. 7 Spatial changes of rural settlements from 2015 to 2030 under conventional urbanization (a), new-type urbanization, (b) and counter-urbanization (c) in Dingzhou, China. Note: QFD: Qingfengdian; LZ: Liuzao; PC: Pangcun; DXZ: Daxinzhuang; XYC: Xiaoyoucun; YJZ: Yangjiazhuang; DT: Dongting; MYD: Mingyuedian; HTZ: Haotouzhuang Hui; ZC: Zhoucun; BGP: Beigaapeng; and XC: Xicheng.

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