Journal of Resources and Ecology ›› 2020, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (6): 570-579.DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.06.004

• Resource Economy • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Evaluation and Driving Force Analysis of Marine Sustainable Development based on the Grey Relational Model and Path Analysis

GAO Sheng1,2(), ZHAO Lin2(), SUN Huihui1, CAO Guangxi3, LIU Wei1,*()   

  1. 1. Institute of Natural Resources and Environmental Audits, Nanjing Audit University, Nanjing 211815, China
    2. College of Ocean Science and Engineering, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China
    3. School of Management Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
  • Received:2020-06-02 Accepted:2020-08-20 Online:2020-11-30 Published:2020-10-25
  • Contact: LIU Wei
  • About author:GAO Sheng, E-mail: 270407@nau.edu.cn|ZHAO Lin, E-mail: zhaoljct@163.com.
    # Authors contribute equally to this work.
  • Supported by:
    Jiangsu Social Science Fund(19GLC013);Jiangsu Social Science Fund(17GLB003);Open Fund of Key Laboratory of Marine Management Technology of State Oceanic Administration(2015105HX90085)

Abstract:

With the rapid development of the marine economy, the demand for marine resources development and the pressure on marine environmental protection are gradually increasing. It is critical to evaluate and analyze the driving forces of marine sustainable development in order to promote the coordinated development of the marine economy, resources and environment. Taking Jiangsu Province of China as an example, this paper constructs an evaluation index system for marine sustainable development from the three aspects of marine economy, resources and environment, and calculates the weight of the variation coefficient for each indicator. Based on the grey relational model, the average value of the relational degree, calculated by the average value method of correlation coefficients and the weighting method, is then used to evaluate the status of marine sustainable development in this province. The comprehensive index model is used to analyze the dynamic trend of the evolution of marine sustainable development. The driving forces of marine sustainable development are analyzed by the path analysis method combined with the average values of the grey relational degree for each indicator. This analysis found that the marine sustainable development in 2016 and 2012 was good, the situation in 2007 was bad, and the remaining years were intermediate. Compared with the previous years, the optimal conditions of 2008 and 2012 were obvious. The main driving factors of marine sustainable development are cargo throughput of coastal ports, economic losses caused by storm surges in coastal areas, the area of marine nature reserves in coastal areas, coastal wind power generation capacity, and marine biodiversity.

Key words: marine sustainable development, coefficient of variation method, grey relational model, composite index model, path analysis