Economic Development Status of the Countries along the Belt and Road and Their Correlations with Population and Carbon Emissions

doi:10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.06.001

Abstract

Abstract:

The construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road are important measures for allowing China to expand its opening up to the outside world under the background of economic globalization. Based on this consideration, and from the perspective of geo-economics, this study uses a variety of mathematical statistical methods to analyze the economic development status and differences among the 30 countries along the Belt and Road. In addition, the correlations between GDP, population and carbon emissions in these countries are also analyzed. The results show that the current economic development levels of the countries along the Belt and Road are quite variable; the gaps between the indicators of the economic development of the countries along the Belt and Road are convergent; the GDP, population, and carbon emissions of the countries along the Belt and Road each showed an overall upward trend during the study period, and the changes in these three values showed significant correlations. Across all countries, the correlation coefficients between GDP and population (0.989), between GDP and carbon emissions (0.995), and between population and carbon emissions (0.993), all indicate that the correlations between GDP, population and carbon emissions are very high. Among them, GDP has the highest correlation with carbon emissions, reaching 0.995. Regression analysis shows that the value of R2 reached 0.995, indicating that the regression fitting effect is very good and the calculation result is highly reliable. Based on these results, this paper proposes the following two suggestions: (1) Promoting the Belt and Road initiative should handle the relationship between developing and developed countries; and (2) Promoting the Belt and Road initiative should also be linked to China's domestic regional development strategy.

Key words: the Belt and Road, geo-economics, correlation, globalization, China

ZHONG Yang, LIN Aiwen, ZHOU Zhigao, HE Lijie, YUAN Moxi. Economic Development Status of the Countries along the Belt and Road and Their Correlations with Population and Carbon Emissions[J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2020, 11(6): 539-548.

Figures/Tables 7

References 35

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Phase I		Phase II			Phase III		Remarks
Primary product		Industrialization			Developed economy
Production stage I	Production stage II	Initial	Medium term	Late	Initial	Era
100-140	140-280	280-560	560-1120	1120-2100	2100-3360	3360-5040	US dollars in 1970
340-470	470-940	940-1890	1890-3770	3770-7070	7070-11310	11310-16970	US dollars in 1990
393-550	550-1100	1100-2200	2200-4400	4400-8250	8250-13200	13200-19800	US dollars in 1995
440-620	620-1240	1240-2490	2490-4970	4970-9320	9320-14910	14910-22380	US dollars in 2000
500-710	710-1410	1410-2820	2820-5640	5640-10570	10570-16920	16920-25380	US dollars in 2005
560-790	790-1570	1570-3150	3150-6300	6300-11810	11810-18900	18900-28350	US dollars in 2015

Phase I		Phase II			Phase III		Remarks
Primary product		Industrialization			Developed economy
Production stage I	Production stage II	Initial	Medium term	Late	Initial	Era
100-140	140-280	280-560	560-1120	1120-2100	2100-3360	3360-5040	US dollars in 1970
340-470	470-940	940-1890	1890-3770	3770-7070	7070-11310	11310-16970	US dollars in 1990
393-550	550-1100	1100-2200	2200-4400	4400-8250	8250-13200	13200-19800	US dollars in 1995
440-620	620-1240	1240-2490	2490-4970	4970-9320	9320-14910	14910-22380	US dollars in 2000
500-710	710-1410	1410-2820	2820-5640	5640-10570	10570-16920	16920-25380	US dollars in 2005
560-790	790-1570	1570-3150	3150-6300	6300-11810	11810-18900	18900-28350	US dollars in 2015

Years	GDP per capita	Exports as a share of GDP	Service industry added value as a share of GDP	Industrial added value as a share of GDP	Imports as a share of GDP	Agricultural added value as a share of GDP	Total capital formation
2003	1.341	0.875	0.270	0.296	0.791	0.963	0.316
2004	1.337	0.884	0.261	0.289	0.791	0.965	0.317
2005	1.296	0.900	0.253	0.285	0.778	0.983	0.281
2006	1.267	0.902	0.253	0.287	0.772	0.990	0.287
2007	1.258	0.871	0.251	0.279	0.731	0.981	0.292
2008	1.229	0.917	0.252	0.283	0.783	0.988	0.271
2009	1.223	0.874	0.242	0.289	0.735	0.998	0.322
2010	1.181	0.881	0.248	0.290	0.739	1.006	0.305
2011	1.158	0.856	0.258	0.301	0.724	0.993	0.333
2012	1.159	0.855	0.251	0.293	0.712	0.975	0.364
2013	1.156	0.849	0.237	0.272	0.709	0.951	0.347
2014	1.159	0.855	0.231	0.265	0.706	0.938	0.322

Years	GDP per capita	Exports as a share of GDP	Service industry added value as a share of GDP	Industrial added value as a share of GDP	Imports as a share of GDP	Agricultural added value as a share of GDP	Total capital formation
2003	1.341	0.875	0.270	0.296	0.791	0.963	0.316
2004	1.337	0.884	0.261	0.289	0.791	0.965	0.317
2005	1.296	0.900	0.253	0.285	0.778	0.983	0.281
2006	1.267	0.902	0.253	0.287	0.772	0.990	0.287
2007	1.258	0.871	0.251	0.279	0.731	0.981	0.292
2008	1.229	0.917	0.252	0.283	0.783	0.988	0.271
2009	1.223	0.874	0.242	0.289	0.735	0.998	0.322
2010	1.181	0.881	0.248	0.290	0.739	1.006	0.305
2011	1.158	0.856	0.258	0.301	0.724	0.993	0.333
2012	1.159	0.855	0.251	0.293	0.712	0.975	0.364
2013	1.156	0.849	0.237	0.272	0.709	0.951	0.347
2014	1.159	0.855	0.231	0.265	0.706	0.938	0.322

Countries	2002			2014			Average annual growth rate (%)
Countries	GDP (×10⁸ USD)	Population (×10⁴ person)	Carbon emission (×10⁴ t)	GDP (×10⁸ USD)	Population (×10⁴ person)	Carbon emission (×10⁴ t)	GDP	Population	Carbon emission
Afghanistan	40.55	2260.08	107.08	204.85	3337.08	980.92	31.17	3.67	62.78
Bangladesh	547.24	13247.81	3370.71	1728.85	15452.02	7318.97	16.61	1.28	9.01
China	14705.50	128040	385026.93	104385.29	136427.00	1029192.69	46.91	0.50	12.87
Germany	20791.36	8248.85	82972.48	38987.27	8098.25	71988.34	6.73	-0.14	-1.02
France	14942.87	6180.53	37507.54	28521.66	6631.61	30327.56	6.99	0.56	-1.47
United Kingdom	17730.16	5937.05	52864.21	30347.29	6461.32	41982.02	5.47	0.68	-1.58
Indonesia	1956.61	21735.78	30673.72	8908.15	25512.90	46417.62	27.33	1.34	3.95
India	5149.38	109331.72	105425.88	20391.27	129560.42	223837.71	22.77	1.42	8.64
Iran	1286.27	6728.48	40176.02	4344.75	7746.58	64948.07	18.29	1.16	4.74
Italy	12665.11	5705.90	45261.05	21517.33	6078.91	32041.15	5.38	0.50	-2.25
Japan	41151.16	12744.50	122004.76	48504.14	12727.60	121404.84	1.37	-0.01	-0.04
Kazakhstan	246.37	1485.89	13373.55	2214.16	1728.83	24831.46	61.44	1.26	6.59
Kyrgyzstan	16.06	499.07	495.78	74.68	583.55	960.75	28.09	1.30	7.21
Cambodia	42.84	1263.77	220.75	167.03	1527.45	668.49	22.30	1.60	15.60
South Korea	6090.20	4764.47	46563.20	14113.34	5074.67	58715.64	10.13	0.50	2.01
Laos	17.58	549.32	115.14	132.68	663.98	195.45	50.36	1.61	5.37
Myanmar	67.78	4770.22	920.78	654.46	5228.08	2163.16	66.59	0.74	10.38
Malaysia	1008.45	2420.84	13374.28	3380.62	2986.66	24282.14	18.09	1.80	6.27
Netherlands	4716.14	1614.89	18166.32	8909.81	1686.50	16730.32	6.84	0.34	-0.61
Pakistan	723.07	14954.97	11408.40	2443.61	19530.68	16629.85	18.30	2.35	3.52
Philippines	813.58	8136.53	7133.78	2845.85	10051.31	10565.36	19.21	1.81	3.70
Russia	3454.70	14530.60	155708.52	20599.84	14381.97	170534.57	38.18	-0.08	0.73
Saudi Arabia	1896.06	2180.53	32640.70	7563.50	3091.70	60104.70	22.99	3.21	6.47
Singapore	925.38	417.60	4723.10	3148.51	546.97	5637.28	18.48	2.38	1.49
Sweden	2643.46	892.50	5742.52	5744.13	969.61	4342.09	9.02	0.66	-1.88
Thailand	1343.01	6406.91	20832.23	4073.39	6843.87	31621.27	15.64	0.52	3.98
Tajikistan	12.21	642.69	188.12	91.13	825.28	518.88	49.71	2.19	13.53
Turkmenistan	44.62	461.00	3996.66	435.24	546.63	6842.26	67.34	1.43	5.48
Uzbekistan	96.88	2527.19	12834.87	766.59	3075.77	10521.36	53.18	1.67	-1.39
Vietnam	350.64	8153.44	7080.61	1862.05	9171.46	16691.08	33.16	0.96	10.44
Total	138093.97	396833.12	1260909.7	387061.46	446548.65	2132995.99	13.87	0.96	5.32