Journal of Resources and Ecology ›› 2019, Vol. 10 ›› Issue (4): 353-361.doi: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764X.2019.04.002

• Water and Soil Resources • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Study of the Population Carrying Capacity of Water and Land in Hainan Province

HAO Qing1,2,3,4(), FENG Zhiming1,3,4, YANG Yanzhao1,3,4, YOU Zhen1, CHENG Ping2, DENG Ling2,*()   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2. Chinese Academy of Natural Resource Economics, Beijing 101149, China
    3. Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, MNR, Beijing 101149,China
    4. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
  • Received:2018-09-26 Accepted:2018-11-30 Online:2019-07-30 Published:2019-07-30
  • Contact: DENG Ling E-mail:haoq.16b@igsnrr.ac.cn;joysdeng@163.com
  • About author:

    First author: HAO Qing, E-mail: haoq.16b@igsnrr.ac.cn

  • Supported by:
    Strategic Pilot Science and Technology Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA20010201).

Abstract:

In recent years, the rapid growth of population in Haikou and Sanya has caused extensive concern about the carrying capacity of Hainan Province. To formulate scientific population and environmental policies, it is necessary to research the relationship between population, carrying capacity and economic growth. In this paper, three indicators, grain production, nutrient composition of agricultural products and water resources, are used to measure carrying capacity quantitatively; the employment elasticity coefficient method is used to set the employment elasticity coefficient and the growth rate of regional GDP to estimate the total population needed to support economic growth; PADIS-INT population forecasting software that has parameters to track total fertility rate and net migration rate is used to predict demographic changes. The results show that, as of 2050, the total population of Hainan Province will not have exceeded the upper limit of the carrying capacity of land and water resources. In general, there is no overpopulation problem in the province, but there may be structural problems related to population, such as a large proportion of elderly people, labor shortages, and a high social dependency ratio. It is suggested that the local government should adopt positive population policies, improve the management of natural resources and the environment, and guide the balanced development of population in the province.

Key words: carrying capacity, economic growth, population, Hainan