Journal of Resources and Ecology ›› 2017, Vol. 8 ›› Issue (2): 174-184.DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2017.02.008

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Inter-decadal Variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Its Impact on Hydrologic Variables in the Haihe River Basin, China

LI Fuxing1,2, ZHANG Shiyan1,3,*, CHEN Dong1, HE Li1, GU Leilei1,2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese
    Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    3 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
  • Received:2016-09-27 Online:2017-03-28 Published:2017-03-28
  • Contact: ZHANG Shiyan. E-mail: zhangshy@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • Supported by:
    the National Major Basic Research Program of China (2010CB428404); the “Hundred Talents Program” of Chinese Academy of Sciences (for Dong Chen); Open Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University (2015490711)

Abstract: Wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall tests are employed to evaluate the variation in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and hydrological variables in the Haihe River basin calculated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity model. The relationships between those variables and the EASM are also examined. The results indicate consistent 40a periodic variation in both the hydrological variables and the EASM. The hydrologic variables show downward trends in the Haihe River basin over the past 60 years, especially in piedmont regions of the Taihang-Yan Mountains. The variables are closely related to the EASM, whose continuous weakening since the 1970 s has resulted in prolonged drought and severe water shortages in the basin. The periodicity of the EASM index was analyzed using continuous wavelet transform methods. We found the most significant periodic signal of the EASM is ~80 years; therefore, the EASM may reinforce and reach a maximum in the 2040 s, resulting in more precipitation and other impacts on basin water resources. Hydrologic variables in the basin in the 2040 s are predicted, and their spatial distributions in the Haihe River basin are also discussed. These results allow for the estimation of water resources under forecasted EASM, which will be useful for water resources management in the Haihe River basin.

Key words: Mann-Kendall test, East Asia summer monsoon, hydrologic variables, the Haihe River basin, VIC model, wavelet analysis