Journal of Resources and Ecology ›› 2017, Vol. 8 ›› Issue (1): 77-87.doi: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2017.01.010

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Using MaxEnt Model to Predict Suitable Habitat Changes for Key Protected Species in Koshi Basin, Central Himalayas

LIU Linshan1, ZHAO Zhilong1,2, ZHANG Yili1,2,*, WU Xue1,2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2016-11-05 Online:2017-01-20 Published:2017-01-24
  • Contact: ZHANG Yili, E-mail: zhangly@igsnrr.ac.cn.
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China (41371120); Tibet Key Science and Technology Program (2015XZ01G72); The Australian Government-funded Koshi Basin Programme at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).

Abstract: Because of its landscape heterogeneity, Koshi Basin (KB) is home to one of the world’s most abundant, diverse group of species. Habitat change evaluations for key protected species are very important for biodiversity protection in this region. Based on current and future world climate and land cover data, MaxEnt model was used to simulate potential habitat changes for key protected species. The results shows that the overall accuracy of the model is high (AUC > 0.9), suggesting that the MaxEnt-derived distributions are a close approximation of real-world distribution probabilities. The valley around Chentang Town and Dram Town in China, and Lamabagar and the northern part of Landtang National Park in Nepal are the most important regions for the protection of the habitat in KB. The habitat area of Grus nigricollis, Panax pseudoginseng, and Presbytis entellus is expected to decrease in future climate and land cover scenarios. More focus should be placed on protecting forests and wetlands since these are the main habitats for these species.

Key words: Habitat loss, Himalayas, Koshi Basin, Land use, MaxEnt model