Assessment of Changes in the Value of Ecosystem Services in the Koshi River Basin, Central High Himalayas Based on Land Cover Changes and the CA-Markov Model

doi:10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2017.01.009

Abstract

Abstract: Climate warming and economic developments have created pressures on the ecological systems that human populations rely on, and this process has contributed to the degradation of ecosystems and the loss of ecosystem services. In this study, Landsat satellite data were chosen as the data source and the Koshi River Basin (KB) in the central high Himalayas as the study area. Changes in land cover and changes in the value of ecosystem services between 1990 and 2010 were analyzed and the land cover pattern of the KB in 2030 and 2050 was modeled using the CA-Markov model. Changes in land cover and in the value of ecosystem services in the KB for the period 2010-2050 were then analyzed. The value of ecosystem services in the KB was found to decrease by 2.05×10⁸USD y^-1 between 1990 and 2010. Among these results, the services value of forest, snow/glacier and barren area decreased, while that of cropland increased. From 1990 to 2050, forest showed the largest reduction in ecosystem services value, as much as 11.87×10⁸USD y^-1, while cropland showed the greatest increase, by 3.05×10⁸USD y^-1. Deforestation and reclamation in Nepal contributed to a reduction in the value of ecosystem services in the KB. Barren areas that were transformed into water bodies brought about an increase in ecosystem services value in the lower reaches of the Koshi River. In general, this process is likely to be related to increasing human activity in the KB.

Key words: CA-Markov, Himalayas, Koshi River Basin, land cover, ecosystem services

ZHAO Zhilong, WU Xue, ZHANG Yili, GAO Jungang. Assessment of Changes in the Value of Ecosystem Services in the Koshi River Basin, Central High Himalayas Based on Land Cover Changes and the CA-Markov Model[J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2017, 8(1): 67-76.

References

[1] Bunker, D. E., DeClerck, F., Bradford, J. C., et al. 2005. Species loss and above ground carbon storage in a tropical forest. Science, 310, 1029–1031.
[2] Carpenter, S. R., Mooney, H. A., Agard, J., et al. 2009. Science for managing ecosystem services: beyond the millennium ecosystem assessment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106, 1305–1312.
[3] Chapin III, F.S., Randerson, J.T., McGuire, A.D., et al. 2008. Changing feedbacks in the earth-climate system. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 6(6), 313–320.
[4] Costanza, R., Groot, R. D., Sutton, P., et al. 2014. Changes in the global value of ecosystem services. Global Environmental Change, 26(3), 152–158.
[5] Costanza, R., R, d’Arge., R, de. Groot., et al. 1997. The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature, 387, 253–260.
[6] Daily, G. C. 1997. Nature’s service: Societal dependence on natural ecosystems. Washington DC: Island Press.
[7] Eastman, R. J. 2012. Idrisi selva tutorial. Clark University.
[8] Fu, B. J., & Zhang, L. W. 2014. Land-use change and ecosystem services: concepts, methods and progress. Progress in Geography, 33(4), 441– 446. (in Chinese)
[9] Fu, B. J., Wang, S., Su, C. H., et al. 2013. Linking ecosystem processes and ecosystem services. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 5(1), 4–10.
[10] Gao, J. G. 2012. Land cover change and its relationship with climate change in Koshi River Basin of the Central Himalaya. PhD diss., University of Chinese Academy of Sciences. (in Chinese)
[11] Guan, D., Li, H., Inohae, T., et al. 2011. Modeling urban land use change by the integration of cellular automaton and Markov model. Ecological Modelling, 222, 3761–3772.
[12] Hou, P., Wang, Q., Shen, W. M., et al. 2015. Progress of integrated ecosystem assessment: Concept, framework and challenges. Geographical Research, 34(10), 1809–1823. (in Chinese)
[13] Hu, X. L., Xu, L., Zhang, S. S. 2013. Land use pattern of Dalian City, Liaoning Province of Northeast China based on CA-Markov model and multi-objective optimization. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 24(6), 1652–1660. (in Chinese)
[14] Immerzeel, W., Stoorvogel, J., Antle, J. 2008. Can payments for ecosystem services secure the water tower of Tibet. Agricultural Systems, 96(1–3), 52–63.
[15] International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). 2016. Koshi basin information system. 2016-1-16[2016-6-20]. http://apps.geoportal.icimod.org/kbis/
[16] Kamusoko, C., Aniya, M., Adi, B., et al. 2009. Rural sustainability under threat in Zimbabwe: Simulation of future land use/cover changes in the Bindura district based on the Markov-cellular automata model. Applied Geography, 29, 435–447.
[17] Lafortezza, Raffaele., & Chen, J. Q. 2016. The provision of ecosystem services in response to global change: Evidences and applications. Environmental Research, 147, 576–579.
[18] Li, W. H. 2010. Progresses and perspectives of ecological research in China. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 1(1), 3–14.
[19] Liu, J. H., Gao, J. X., Nie, Y. H. 2009. Measurement and Dynamic Changes of Ecosystem Services Value for the Tibetan Plateau Based on Remote Sensing Techniques. Geography and Geo-Information Science, 25(3), 81–84. (in Chinese)
[20] Liu, X. F., Ren, Z. Y., Lin, Z. H. 2013. Dynamic assessment of the values of CO2 fixation and O2 release in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau ecosystem. Geographical Research, 32(4), 663–670. (in Chinese)
[21] Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. 2005. Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Synthesis, Island Press, Washington, DC.
[22] Mou, X. J., Zhao, X. Y., Rao, S., et al. 2016. Changes of ecosystem structure in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Ecological Barrier Area during recent ten years. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 52(2), 279–286. (in Chinese)
[23] Nie, Y. 2010. Land cover changes in Mt. Qomolangma region. PhD diss., University of Chinese Academy of Sciences. (in Chinese)
[24] Sandhu, H., & Sandhu, S. 2014. Linking ecosystem services with the constituents of human well-being for poverty alleviation in eastern Himalayas. Ecological Economics, 107, 65–75.
[25] Tang, J., Wang, X. G., Li, Z. Y., et al. 2010. The tendency forecast on land use landscape pattern change in western Jilin Province based on CA-Markov model. Journal of Jilin University (Earth Science), 40(2), 405–411. (in Chinese)
[26] Wang, Q., Chen, X., Yang, D. G., et al. 2012. Paying for Tibet’s Environmental-Ecosystem Services. Environmental Science & Technology, 46(10), 5264.
[27] Wu, Q., Wang, R. S., Li, H. Q., et al. 2006. Statistical properties of Markov chain in land use and landscape study. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 17(3), 434–437. (in Chinese)
[28] Wu, X., Gao, J. G., Zhang, Y. L., et al. 2017. Land Cover Status in the Koshi River Basin, Central Himalayas. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 8(1): 10-19.
[29] Xie, G. D., Lu, C. X., Leng, Y. F., et al. 2003. Ecological assets valuation of the Tibetan plateau. Journal of Natural Resources, 18 (2), 189–196. (in Chinese)
[30] Yu, C., Zhang, Y., Claus, H., et al. 2012. Ecological and environmental issues faced by a developing Tibet. Environmental Science & Technology, 46 (4), 1979–1980.
[31] Zhang, Y. L., Gao, J. G., Liu, L. S., et al. 2013. NDVI-based vegetation changes and their response to climate change from 1982 to 2011: A case study in the Koshi River Basin in the middle Himalayans. Global and Planetary Change, 108, 139–148.
[32] Zhang, Y. L., Yao, Z. J., Liu, L. S., et al. 2016. Final report on study on land use and land cover change and erosion in the Koshi River Basin. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, China.
[33] Zhang, Y., S. Zhao, R. Guo. 2014. Recent advances and challenges in ecosystem service research. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 5(1), 82–90.
[34] Zhu, J., Zhou, Y., Wang, S. X., et al. 2015. Multicriteria decision analysis for monitoring ecosystem service function of the Three-River Headwaters region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. Environmental Monitoring & Assessment, 187(6), 1–19.