Abstract: This paper studies water balance in the Haihe River Basin, China and assesses water shortage risk for the period 1994-2007. The authors identify that there is a water shortage problem in this area and propose that the non-intake water consumption (NIWC) is a very important water balance element. The NIWC in the Haihe River Basin flow is 5.91×10⁹m³ in normal years. It was concluded from our evaluation that the water shortage risk during 1994-2007 was very high. Using international water risk assessment theory, multiyear risk indicators in Haihe River Basin can be calculated. Water risk rate, resiliency, stability, and vulnerability for the Haihe River Basin for the period 1994-2007 were 0.786, 0.000, 0.154 and 0.173 respectively. With the use of counter-force factors and adoption of different priorities to different water consumers, the water shortage risk can be decreased. The integrated water shortage risk indicators of the Haihe River Basin are 0.095-0.328. In this study, water availability from the South-North Water Diversion Project is also considered. By the year 2014, about 5×10⁹m³ of water will be diverted from the Yangtse River, and the water shortage risk in the Haihe River Basin will drop from 0.229-0.297 to 0.152-0.234 under an inflow water frequency of 50%-75%. However, a risk of water shortage in this area will persist.

Key words: water risk, assessment, water shortage, Haihe River Basin, non-intake water consumption