Journal of Resources and Ecology ›› 2011, Vol. 2 ›› Issue (2): 126-131.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-764x.2011.02.004

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An Investigation of Coal Demand in China Based on the Variable Weight Combination Forecasting Model

ZHAO Guohao, GUO Shufen, SHENTU Jing, WANG Yongguang   

  1. School of Management Science and Engineering, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006, China
  • Received:2010-04-07 Revised:2011-01-21 Online:2011-06-30 Published:2011-06-28
  • Supported by:

    the National Natural Science Foundation in China (No. 70873079 and 70941022), Shanxi Natural Science Foundation (No. 2009011021-1) and Shanxi International Science and Technology Cooperation Foundation (2008081014).

Abstract: Variable weight combination forecasting combines individual forecasting models after giving them proper weights at each time point. Weight is the type of function that changes with forecast time. A relatively rational description of the system can be proposed with the forecasting method, which is of higher precision and better stability. Two individual forecasting models, grey system forecasting and multiple regression forecasting, were generated based on the historical data and influencing factors of coal demand in China from 1981 to 2008. According to the theory of combination forecasting, the variable weight combination forecasting model was formulated to forecast coal demand in China for the next 12 years.

Key words: Variable Weight Combination Forecasting Model, coal demand, energy resources management