Journal of Resources and Ecology ›› 2011, Vol. 2 ›› Issue (1): 83-90.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-764x.2011.01.012

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Quantitative Assessment of Seismic Mortality Risks in China

XU Zhongchun1,2, WU Shaohong1, DAI Erfu1, LI Kaizhong1,2   

  1. 1 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;
    2 Graduate University of ChineseAcademy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China
  • Received:2010-12-07 Revised:2011-03-12 Online:2011-03-30 Published:2011-03-28
  • Contact: WU Shaohong.Email:wush@igsnrr.ac.cn.
  • Supported by:

    National Science and Technology Support Program(Grant NO.2008BAK50B05,2008BAK50B06).

Abstract: Based on the forming mechanism of seismic hazard risk,we established a seismic vulnerability curve on population and determined earthquake occurrence parameters.We then assessed the risk of seismic hazard mortality at the county level across China using the assessment model,and analyzed spatial patterns.We adopted past,present,and future disaster-breeding materials to assess the probability of earthquakes.In order to determine the earthquake parameters of 2355 counties accurately,we integrated history seismic intensities,seismic activity fault belts distributions and seismic peak ground acceleration. Based on data of seismic disasters from 1990 to 2009 in China,linear fitting between seismic intensities and mortalities was performed.And a vulnerability curve of seismic mortality,which was appropriate for seismic risk assessment,was established.Seismic mortality risks were assessed quantitatively at the county level using the model and the spatial patterns were analyzed.Seismic mortality risks of 2355 counties with intensities from Ⅴ to Ⅺ were analyzed thoroughly.This study indicates that under different seismic intensities,China’s eastern and central regions are generally confronted with higher risk than western regions.High-risk areas are scattered in Shandong and Jiangsu,northern Anhui and eastern Heilongjiang and Jilin,where populations are dense and the environment is conducive to disasters.Risk- free areas displayed patchy distributions nationwide,and patterns were mostly unchanged.

Key words: seismic hazards, risk assessment, seismic mortality risks, China