资源与生态学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 10 ›› Issue (6): 649-656.DOI: 10.5814/j.issn.1674-764X.2019.06.010

所属专题: 中国耕地资源与粮食安全

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基于可持续发展目标(SDGs)的“一带一路”农业可持续性分析

陈劭锋1,2, 刘扬1,*(), 苏利阳1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京 100190
    2. 中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2019-08-23 接受日期:2019-09-23 出版日期:2019-11-30 发布日期:2019-12-09
  • 通讯作者: 刘扬
  • 作者简介:CHEN Shaofeng, E-mail: sfchen@casipm.ac.cn

Sustainable Agriculture in the “Belt and Road” Region in Conjunction with the Sustainable Development Goals

CHEN Shaofeng1,2, LIU Yang1,*(), SU Liyang1   

  1. 1. Institute of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
    2. School of Public and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2019-08-23 Accepted:2019-09-23 Online:2019-11-30 Published:2019-12-09
  • Contact: LIU Yang
  • Supported by:
    The Second Comprehensive Scientific Survey of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(2019QZKK0406);The Research on Resource Bottleneck and Security Guarantees for One-hundred strategic Targets(Y9X0722601)

摘要:

“一带一路”国家需要在顶层谋划方面做出努力,方能确保农业的可持续发展。而这需要对“一带一路”沿线国家农业可持续性有一个准确的评判。本文在“一带一路”可持续农业概念认识与可持续发展目标(SDGs)中农业目标解读的基础上,借助统计回归分析、趋势预测等方法,预测了2030年“一带一路”沿线国家经济增长和城镇化等社会经济发展的趋势,以及这些发展趋势相应地对农业资源环境的冲击。结果表明,“一带一路”沿线国家农业资源环境前景不容乐观,且难以支撑起该地区未来对粮食安全需求的保障,只有采用积极应对政策和措施,并在战略上进行规划和布局,才能确保该地区2030年粮食安全这一农业可持续发展目标的实现。为此,“一带一路”沿线国家需要从构建农业合作平台、设立专项基金,以及创新农业合作模式等三个方面进行战略合作,推动“一带一路”沿线国家的农业实现可持续发展。

关键词: “一带一路”, 可持续发展, 农业资源, 环境

Abstract:

The countries along the “Belt and Road” (B&R) should devote their efforts to top-level planning in the field of agriculture, so as to ensure the sustainable development of agriculture in the region. This will require a precise assessment of the sustainability of agriculture along the B&R. With a view to understanding the concept of sustainable agriculture along the B&R, combined with the interpretation of the agricultural objectives contained in the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), this study uses statistical regression analysis and trend prediction to predict the social and economic development trends in terms of economic growth and urbanization in the countries along the B&R up until 2030, and the corresponding impacts on agricultural resources and the environment. The results show that the future prospects for agricultural resources and the environment along the B&R are not promising, and meeting the future food security needs of the region will be difficult. Only by adopting innovative policies and implementing strategic planning can the goals of sustainable agricultural development and food security by 2030 be achieved in this region. Therefore, countries along the B&R should formulate agricultural development strategies from three aspects: building an agricultural cooperation platform, setting up special funds, and innovating the agricultural cooperation mode, so as to achieve the sustainable development of agriculture in the region.

Key words: the “Belt and Road” Initiative;, sustainable development, agricultural resources, environment