资源与生态学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 2 ›› Issue (4): 338-344.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-764x.2011.04.007

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

泾河流域农业旱灾风险定量评估及其空间特征

龙鑫1,2, 甄霖1, 成升魁1, 邸苏闯3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101;
    2. 中国科学院研究生院,北京 100049;
    3. 北京市水利科学研究所, 北京 100048
  • 收稿日期:2011-09-18 修回日期:2011-11-01 出版日期:2011-12-30 发布日期:2011-12-22
  • 通讯作者: CHENG Shengkui. Email: chengsk@igsnrr.ac.cn.

Quantitative Assessment and Spatial Characteristics of Agricultural Drought Risk in the Jinghe Watershed, Northwestern China

LONG Xin1,2, ZHEN Lin1, CHENG Shengkui1, DI Suchuang3   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    3. Beijing Hydraulic Research Institute, Beijing 100048, China
  • Received:2011-09-18 Revised:2011-11-01 Online:2011-12-30 Published:2011-12-22
  • Supported by:

    National Key Technology R&D Program (No. 2008BAK50B05), National Key Project for basic research (973) (No.2009CB421106) and the Knowledge Innovation Program of CAS (No. KZCX2-EW-306).

摘要: 泾河流域是农业旱灾的多发地区,但是对该地农业旱灾的发生规律、旱灾影响及旱灾恢复和准备措施方面开展的研究还较少。本文根据自然灾害风险评估的理论框架,建立了1km栅格精度的泾河流域农业旱灾风险空间评估模型,并对农业旱灾致灾因子危险性及农业承险体脆弱性进行评估,最后综合评估该地区农业旱灾风险。在此基础上,分析研究区农业旱灾危险性、承险体脆弱性及风险的空间特征。本研究采用Z指数方法评估泾河流域农业旱灾致灾因子的强度,选取农作物生长季缺水率、土壤有效含水量、有效灌溉面积比以及坡度等4个指标评估研究区1km空间尺度的农业旱灾脆弱性。农业旱灾风险综合评估的结果表明,泾河流域农业旱灾风险的高风险区位于该地区北部,低风险区位于该地区南部,且不同等级风险区呈现出自东向西、自南向北逐渐降低的总体趋势,但不同等级风险区呈现间隔分布的趋势。

关键词: 农业旱灾, 自然灾害, 脆弱性, 风险评估, 泾河流域

Abstract: Though drought is a recurrent phenomenon in the Jinghe watershed, very little attention has been paid to drought mitigation and preparedness. This article presents a method for the spatial assessment of agricultural drought risk in the Jinghe watershed of western China at a 1-km grid scale. A conceptual framework, which emphasizes the combined roles of hazard and vulnerability in defining risk, is used. The Z index method in a GIS environment is used to map the spatial extent of drought hazards. The key social and physical factors that define agricultural drought in the context of the Jinghe watershed are indentified and corresponding thematic maps are prepared. Risk is calculated by the integration of hazard and vulnerability. Results show that the risk gradient follows a north-south and west-east tendency and that agricultural droughts pose the highest risk to northern and northwestern sections of the Jinghe watershed.

Key words: agricultural drought, natural hazards, vulnerability, risk assessment, Jinghe watershed