Rural Poverty Patterns and Influencing Factors in Yunnan Province, China: Based on County Level Dataset

doi:10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2020.04.005

Abstract

Abstract:

The identification of poverty at the county level is the precondition for poverty alleviation by formulating accurate strategies that are targeted for a certain area. Yunnan Province has the largest number of poverty counties in China. The vast number of people living under the poverty-line, and the deep degree of poverty across a wide distribution range, pose major challenges. Based on the rural poverty incidence data, this paper describes the rural poverty patterns in Yunnan Province in 2010 and 2015, and then it explores the main factors which influence the incidence and changes in rural poverty at the county level in Yunnan Province using a stepwise regression analysis method. This study found that the rural poverty in counties of Yunnan Province was deeply affected by natural conditions and the geographical environment. In 2010 and 2015, the rural poverty situation in the middle region of Yunnan Province was relatively light, while it was more serious in the northwest, northeast and south regions. The pattern of county poverty is in good agreement with the topography and landforms of Yunnan Province and the poverty-stricken areas. There are strong correlations between the incidence of rural poverty in Yunnan Province with both the annual per capita net income of rural residents and the degree of agricultural mechanization. These factors are related to the living standards and agricultural production necessary for the peasantry to sustain their livelihood. The change in the incidence of rural poverty at the county level in Yunnan Province from 2010 to 2015 is significantly correlated with changes in the value-added of the primary industries and the degree of agricultural mechanization. These correlations indicate that the development of primary industry plays a key role in the process of lifting rural residents in Yunnan Province out of poverty so they can achieve prosperity. Therefore, improving the annual per capita net income of rural residents and the degree of agricultural mechanization for rural areas in Yunnan Province are still the main points for focused efforts. In the current phase of poverty alleviation, Yunnan Province should emphasize increasing rural residents' income and agricultural production and management in order to formulate effective policies and measures for poverty alleviation.

Key words: rural poverty, poverty incidence, stepwise regression analysis, Yunnan Province

SHANG Xiaowen, CHEN Yufu. Rural Poverty Patterns and Influencing Factors in Yunnan Province, China: Based on County Level Dataset[J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2020, 11(4): 366-377.

Figures/Tables 8

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Variables	Index (unit)	Variables	Index (unit)
X₁	The value-added of primary industry (Ⅹ10⁴ yuan)	X₈	Per capita GDP (yuan person^-1)
X₂	Total power of agricultural machinery (Ⅹ10⁴ kW)	X₉	Staff average wages (Ⅹ10⁴ yuan person^-1)
X₃	The number of units of an industrial enterprise above a designated size (number)	X₁₀	Budgetary revenue from local public finances (Ⅹ10⁸ yuan)
X₄	Gross industrial output value above a designated size (Ⅹ10⁴ yuan)	X₁₁	Budgetary revenue from local public finances per capita (yuan person^-1)
X₅	Fixed asset investment (Ⅹ10⁸ yuan)	X₁₂	Total retail sales of consumer goods (Ⅹ10⁸ yuan)
X₆	The number of beds in medical and health institutions (number)	X₁₃	Household savings at the end of a year (Ⅹ10⁸ yuan)
X₇	GDP (Ⅹ10⁴ yuan)	X₁₄	Annual per capita net income of rural residents (yuan person^-1)

Variables	Index (unit)	Variables	Index (unit)
X₁	The value-added of primary industry (Ⅹ10⁴ yuan)	X₈	Per capita GDP (yuan person^-1)
X₂	Total power of agricultural machinery (Ⅹ10⁴ kW)	X₉	Staff average wages (Ⅹ10⁴ yuan person^-1)
X₃	The number of units of an industrial enterprise above a designated size (number)	X₁₀	Budgetary revenue from local public finances (Ⅹ10⁸ yuan)
X₄	Gross industrial output value above a designated size (Ⅹ10⁴ yuan)	X₁₁	Budgetary revenue from local public finances per capita (yuan person^-1)
X₅	Fixed asset investment (Ⅹ10⁸ yuan)	X₁₂	Total retail sales of consumer goods (Ⅹ10⁸ yuan)
X₆	The number of beds in medical and health institutions (number)	X₁₃	Household savings at the end of a year (Ⅹ10⁸ yuan)
X₇	GDP (Ⅹ10⁴ yuan)	X₁₄	Annual per capita net income of rural residents (yuan person^-1)

Decreasing amplitude (%)	Number	Number of poverty- stricken counties at the national level	Number of counties in Wumeng Mountain	Number of counties in the Tibetan areas in four provinces	Number of counties in the western Yunnan border mountain areas	Number of counties in Yunnan-Guangxi-Guizhou rocky desertification area
50-60	13	9	4	1	1	3
60-70	44	30	10	2	12	7
70-80	53	32	1		39	1
80-90	5	1			3
90-100	5

Decreasing amplitude (%)	Number	Number of poverty- stricken counties at the national level	Number of counties in Wumeng Mountain	Number of counties in the Tibetan areas in four provinces	Number of counties in the western Yunnan border mountain areas	Number of counties in Yunnan-Guangxi-Guizhou rocky desertification area
50-60	13	9	4	1	1	3
60-70	44	30	10	2	12	7
70-80	53	32	1		39	1
80-90	5	1			3
90-100	5

Model variable	Unstandardized coefficients		Standardized coefficients	t	Sig.
Model variable	B	Std. error	Beta	t	Sig.
Constant	-47.381	6.743		-7.027	0.000
X₁₄	89.943	8.636	0.639	10.415	0.000
X₂	41.589	9.082	0.281	4.579	0.000
Note: The dependent variable is P_i²⁰¹⁰.